FXUS63 KFGF 262323

AFDFGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Forks ND

623 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- There is a 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorm chances for

  late Friday afternoon into evening, as well as on Saturday.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Showers across north central Minnesota will continue to work

east with the mid level wave through filling low stratus on the

backside will prevent a clear night. Fog chances still looking

good in parts southeast north dakota and west central minnesota

through as far north as HWY 2 could be reasonable depending how

light winds go up north tonight. Will continue to monitor but 

at this time expecting at least patchy fog in southern areas.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...Synopsis...



Weak mid level wave can be seen on water vapor imagery moving

through the tri-state area into northern Minnesota. This is

resulting in light rain for southeast ND, west-central MN, and

into north-central MN. With dry air near the low levels and lack

of instability combined with weak forcing with this wave, very

little is anticipated in terms of accumulation, generally less

than three tenths of an inch.



As this wave departs, lingering low clouds and cooling overnight

may result in areas of fog overnight into early morning Friday

within the Red River Valley, eastern ND, and portions of west- 

central MN. Some fog may be dense.



For Friday, instability increases over central ND by late

afternoon. This develops ahead of a low amplitude shortwave

trough moving out of the northern High Plains into SK/MB by

Friday evening, with attendant weak front draped north to south

across western ND. The shortwave will provide sufficient wind 

shear and forcing to bring a chance for strong to severe 

thunderstorms within portions of central North Dakota into 

perhaps the Devils Lake basin by sunset Friday. Eventual 

upscale growth is favored as storms trek east/southeast during 

the overnight hours, potentially bringing strong to severe 

storms within the rest of eastern ND into portions of MN before 

sunrise Saturday. 



Depending on evolution of storms Friday night, ongoing storms

may be strong to severe Saturday morning. Guidance does favor a

lull in thunderstorm activity around midday Saturday before

additional thunderstorms become possible again, most likely near

west-central MN. These may be strong to severe.



Longwave trough and attendant cold front moves through the

region overnight Saturday or Sunday morning, ushering in dryer

conditions. Northwest flow and drier air mass intrusions should

promote below average precipitation, lower thunderstorm chances,

as well as near average temperatures.



... Severe risk for Friday and Saturday ...



Should storms be more discrete (more likely for locations 

closer to central ND like Devils Lake basin), large hail to size

of golf balls along with wind to 70 mph. Eventual upscale 

growth would favor smaller hail but still holding the potential 

for gusts to 70 mph. Tornadoes are unlikely given the overall 

lack of low level shear oriented in an unfavorable orientation 

with respect to expected storm motion. There is a small subset 

of guidance that even shows lack of thunderstorms with capping 

too strong for forcing associated with the shortwave aloft

bypassing the region as it moves quicker into Canada.



Low level jet develops out of South Dakota, which should

continue to promote upstream development of thunderstorm

segments closer to southeast ND into west-central MN overnight

hours of Friday into early Saturday.



Saturday, rich instability axis moves south and east, with a

surface low/trough development in eastern SD into central MN.

Majority of guidance favors development on the northern flank of

richinstability, which may still be in portions of west-central

Minnesota by peak heating. Should storms develop here, all

hazards including large hail and tornadoes will be possible,

particularly during the first 3 hours of initiation before

upscale growth is then favored to pull thunderstorms deeper into

MN and out of our area.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Current rain is pulling east with BJI seeing light rain continue

through about midnight. Elsewhere ceiling dropping overnight

with some fog potential for places like DVL and FAR, There is

lower confidence in the northern valley through did throw in 4sm

for effect to just show the favored timing. Winds light and

variable through the night with cigs lifting through the 

morning as any IFR quickly becomes MVFR and VFR by noon for all.

Thunderstorm chances after 00z in DVL and closer to 03/06z 

tomorrow for FAR and GFK.



&&



.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ND...None.

MN...None.



&&



$$



UPDATE...TT

DISCUSSION...CJ

AVIATION...TT

