FXUS61 KBGM 261744

AFDBGM



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Binghamton NY

144 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

Another round of showers today with isolated thunderstorms

possible across the western Twin Tiers this afternoon. 

Temperatures will continue to trend cooler through the end of 

the week. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected 

through Saturday.



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

630 AM Update...



Showers are starting to creep into the far western portions of

the CWA and will continue to trek eastward as the morning

progresses. The forecast remains on track.





300 AM Update...



Quiet night across the area with some patchy fog and clouds 

moving across the region. Temps remain in the mid 60s to low 70s

with dewpoints in the 60s so it is still a little muggy out. 



Active weather is expected to return today as a couple different

features will influence the weather across the area. A shortwave

trough will move into the region from the west late this morning

through the afternoon hours. This should bring scattered rain

showers to areas north of the Southern Tier. A few rumbles of

thunder may mix in but model soundings show a mostly stable

atmosphere. The instability picks up across the western Twin

Tiers as a quasi-stationary frontal boundary will set up across

the region as warm SWerly flow butts up against an ESE flow off

the Atlantic generated from a surface high over northern New

England. As the shortwave traverses the area, it should be able

to tap into the instability that is progged to be present from 

Steuben to Luzerne counties. CAM soundings have a wide range of

solutions in this area, ranging from 500j/kg to 2500 j/kg, with

the main culprit in the wide range being a mid-level warm layer

moving in that creates a cap. HREF probs show 30-50 % chance of

seeing 1000-1500 j/kg of CAPE over the aforementioned region,

which seems reasonable. Bulk shear of 20-25kts should allow for

some organization in storms where they develop, with strong, 

gusty winds a possibility. Also present in this region are 

PWATs hovering around 2 inches, which when ingested into the 

convective updrafts and warm cloud depths above 10k feet, heavy 

rain will be a strong possibility. Given the heavy rain we had 

in this area Wednesday, isolated flash flooding will be 

possible. Backing up this thinking is WPC putting the area in a 

low end Slight Risk for excessive rainfall leading to flash 

flooding and SPC having western portions of Steuben to Luzerne

counties in a Marginal Risk for severe storms. Thunderstorms

should push south of the area by mid-evening.



Thursday night, some light scattered rain showers will be

possible north of the Southern Tier. Overnight temps will vary

based on which airmass is over the region. Along and east of

I-81, a marine airmass from the Atlantic will keep temps in the

mid to upper 50s. West of I-81 along and west of the front,

temps will be in the low to mid 60s. 



Friday's weather looks to be active again with the stationary

front lifting north as it gets picked up by a low pressure

system moving into the Great Lakes. How far north and east the

front moves will determine temperatures across the area. Some 

guidance keeps the front over the far western portion of the CWA

while others bring it into the I-81 corridor. Temps east of the

front will be in the upper 60s to low 70s while west of the 

front will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Scattered rain

showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop as a trough

moves in from the west, with convection developing west of the

front and rain showers east of the front. How far east the

convection develops will be determined by where the stationary

front eventually sets up.



&&



.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

240 AM Update...



Start with weak ridging overhead Friday night. Warm front pushes

northward across the region early Saturday morning. Warm air and

moisture advection takes hold before a cold front approaches

from the west Saturday afternoon. Instability out ahead of the

front will increase, with MUCAPE values around 1000 - 1500 

J/kg. Showers and thunderstorms should become widespread by late

Saturday afternoon and persist into the evening before ridging 

starts to build overhead again Saturday night. At this time, 

shear is looking fairly weak, with 0-6km bulk shear of about 30

knots. Although a severe storm is unlikely, still can't rule 

out a rogue strong storm or two. Main threat Saturday afternoon

and evening will be localized flash flooding, as PWATs will be 

elevated once again. Any heavier showers or storms that track 

over already sensitive areas will have some potential to produce

localized flash flooding.



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

250 AM Update...



Front exits the region by early Sunday morning and ridging

builds back in behind it. Temperatures should heat up once 

again, especially on Monday. There will some modest potential  

for heat advisories on Monday, although this will be dependent 

on shower and thunderstorm activity during the afternoon peak 

heating hours. Southerly flow sets up with 850 mb temperatures 

ranging 17 to 18 degrees C. These warm temperatures should be 

short lived, as an upper level trough is expected to dip south 

into the region by Tuesday with a more organized frontal system 

moving through and kicking off more showers and thunderstorms

Tuesday.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR conditions hold for a few more hours at some sites.

Otherwise MVFR restrictions are possible as rain showers 

continue to move in this afternoon and continue through this

evening. There will be a chance for thunderstorms at ITH/ELM/AVP

this afternoon. Confidence was not high enough to include IFR 

at these terminals during the thunderstorm period, but if a cell

with heavy rain moves over the terminal, a brief period of IFR 

is possible. MVFR to Fuel Alt ceilings remain at all terminals 

through the overnight hours with scattered rain showers at 

ITH/SYR/RME. Fog is expected to form at ELM, with IFR conditions

through the overnight hours.



Outlook...



Friday...Mainly VFR. There will be isolated to scattered 

showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions but 

terminals will be mostly VFR.



Saturday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms can lead to

associated restrictions. 



Sunday into Monday...Mainly VFR.



&&



.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ038-039-043-044-

     047.

NY...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ022-024.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...JTC

NEAR TERM...JTC

SHORT TERM...MPK

LONG TERM...MPK

AVIATION...ES/JTC

