ACUS11 KWNS 262031

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 262031 

IAZ000-262200-



Mesoscale Discussion 1459

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0331 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern IA



Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465...



Valid 262031Z - 262200Z



The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465

continues.



SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and possibly a tornado will

continue through late afternoon.



DISCUSSION...A convective line has evolved across central into

northern IA this afternoon, with other smaller clusters gradually

becoming better organized into southwest IA. Deep-layer shear is

rather weak, and weakens with southward extent, but unidirectional

25-35 kt southwest flow in the 1-3 km AGL layer (as noted in the

KDMX VWP) could support some organized damaging-wind potential. 



There has been some tendency for outflow to advance ahead of the

convective line, but any small bowing segments that become oriented

more orthogonal to the southwesterly low/midlevel flow (such as the

one across Butler/Grundy Counties, IA) could be more likely to

produce localized swaths of wind damage through late afternoon.

Modestly favorable effective SRH could also support a brief tornado

threat.



..Dean.. 06/26/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...



LAT...LON   41959369 42729301 42999270 43139190 43139144 42909146

            42509161 41979203 41589237 40919328 40799467 41569403

            41959369 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH



