FXAK67 PAJK 261315

AFDAJK



Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Juneau AK

515 AM AKDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SHORT TERM.../through Thursday night/...Another cloudy and rainy

day is in store for SE AK. That being said, most of the rain will

be in the southern panhandle.



Key Messages:

-Lingering onshore flow and approaching front will keep the clouds

 and rain in the short term forecast for SE AK.

-Cooler-than-normal afternoon highs are expected due to the extra

 cloud cover.

-Any concern for elevated winds will be associated with a front

 that will move in later tonight into tomorrow.



Details:

500mb low over the southern Bering Sea is keeping the active

weather in place for SE AK. As the low over the Bering keeps

spinning, the panhandle will continue to see wave after wave of

precip and brief elevated winds.



The area will see two embedded 500mb shortwaves pass over the area

today into tomorrow. At the surface, this would mean continue rain

and rain showers over the area today, with a more organized front

expected later tonight into tomorrow. This front will push a band

of rain from south to north through the area.



This front will also bring brief elevated winds and wind gusts.

That being said, these elevated wind speeds won't be too high,

with highest speeds around 10 to 15 mph in the more open areas.

Sheltered areas will experience lighter winds, even as the front

tracks through.



.LONG TERM...The mid and extended range is mainly dominated by a 

broad upper trough over the state that is anchored by a cold upper

low over the Gulf of Alaska through much of the period. The 

general trend for the forecast under this pattern is wet, cool, 

and cloudy. This will particularly be true for the late week and 

weekend as a front will be pushing through the area at that time. 

Currently, no significant signals for any abnormally wet or windy 

weather, but the light rain will be persistent from Friday through

Sunday as first the primary front moves in on Friday followed by 

a secondary shortwave on Saturday with another shortwave following

the same track on Sunday. Expecting around an inch or two of rain

total for the three day period with the highest amounts over the 

southern panhandle. Winds will also be somewhat elevated during 

the same time period though again nothing very significant. 

Expecting around 20 kt for max winds in the gulf as each of these 

features move through. Inner channels winds were raised a little 

to around 15 kt (20 kt in Clarence Strait) especially with the 

shortwave moving through on Saturday.



By early next week, an upper high begins to build in the Alaska

interior, possibly forming a rex type blocking pattern over the

state. For SE, however the upper low persists in the gulf and will

continue to produce onshore flow over the region through at least

mid week. Possibility of another shortwave coming up from the 

south on Monday afternoon bringing another period of rain for the 

area. Otherwise the general trend is still damp for the first half

of the week with possible drying conditions by later in the week.



&&



.AVIATION.../through 12z Friday/...Another morning of mixed bag 

of flight conditions around the panhandle. However the 

predominant flight conditions are MVFR or worse across coastal, 

central, and southern panhandle with CIGS around 2500ft and VIS 

dropping to as low as 2 to 4SM. Through the early morning, 

anticipating conditions to continue, predominant MVFR flight 

conditions with IFR to, at brief times, LIFR flight conditions. 

Some improvement to MVFR once more by mid morning with CIGS up to 

3000ft, with opportunity for some isolated locations to improve 

to VFR for a few hours Thursday afternoon, before CIGS drop again 

by Thursday evening as a front approaches the area. Highest 

confidence for period of VFR conditions Thursday afternoon for 

northern panhandle TAF sites like Haines, Skagway, and Juneau.



Winds are expected to remain around 5kts or less and variable 

through tonight, rebounding to around 10kts or less by Thursday 

afternoon. Strongest winds expected in Skagway and Ketchikan. 



&&



.MARINE...

Outer Waters: Outer waters have swung to the south to southeast, 

with the central gulf buoy reporting around 15 knots. Going into

the rest of the day, a front will approach the panhandle, 

bringing SE wind speeds up to 20 knots in the gulf. As the front 

swings inland and northward Friday, southerly gulf winds will 

lower to around 10 to 15 knots with speeds like that lasting into 

the weekend.



Inside Waters: Early morning reported wind speeds range from 

light winds to around 15 knots from a southerly direction. Reduced

visibility due to fog and low clouds are seen on webcams near Cape

Fanshaw. Other areas around the panhandle are clear of fog as of

4AM. Expect winds across the inner channels to be on the lighter 

side today with afternoon speeds to be around 5 to 10 knots for 

most of the area, out of a south to southeasterly direction. For 

tonight into tomorrow, as the incoming front swings northward, 

wind speeds in the inner channels will increase, in association 

with the front, to upwards of 10 to 15 knots with locally higher 

wind speeds possible. Additional waves of wind are likely this 

weekend with speeds upwards of 10 to 20 knots at times.



&&



.HYDROLOGY...With the exception of the Chilkat River, no big 

widespread hydrology concerns at this time. 24 hour rainfall 

amounts will be greatest in the southern panhandle at around a 

quarter to half inch. From the EURO and GFS ensembles, the 90th 

percentile (so 10% chance of occurring) is up to three-quarters 

to one inch. Even the higher end amounts are no cause for concern 

at this time.



As far as the Chilkat goes, recent rainfall in addition to the

river levels already close to flood stage, have caused the river

to cross over into flood stage again. Still thinking rainfall

should be coming to an end in the northern panhandle this morning.

So given that and the recent history observation patterns, decided

to keep the Chilkat above flood stage until 4PM Thursday afternoon

so a Flood Advisory product will be in effect today.



&&



.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PUBLIC...None.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ652-672. 



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...GJS

LONG TERM....STJ

AVIATION...GJS

MARINE...GJS

HYDROLOGY...GJS



Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

