FXUS62 KCHS 261952

AFDCHS



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Charleston SC

352 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

A hot and humid air mass will remain across the region into 

early next week. A slow moving cold front may push over the 

region by the middle of next week. 



&&



.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

This evening and tonight: Concerning convective development for

the rest of the afternoon and into the evening, conditions 

don't look particularly conducive. Satellite imagery kind of 

tells the story with most of the area struggling to even develop

a cumulus field. The best cumulus coverage is across southeast 

GA along the coast, and this aligns well with where 1,500-2,000 

J/kg of MLCAPE exists. So through the early evening, we don't 

expect anything other than isolated convection mainly 

concentrated across southeast GA primarily along and south of 

I-16. Whatever convection does develop should gradually shift 

inland and then dissipate through the mid to late evening. 

Thereafter, the rest of the overnight should be rather quiet 

with lows in the low to mid 70s. 



&&



.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Friday and Saturday, the forecast area will remain under a 

broad H5 weaknesses between ridges to the west and east. At the 

sfc, high pressure will remain centered over the western 

Atlantic, circulation around the high will maintain deep 

moisture across the region. Forecast soundings each afternoon 

feature PW between 1.6 to 1.8 inches. The deep moisture combined

with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s should yield CAPE 

between 1500-2000 J/kg. High resolution guidance indicates that 

scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead

of the sea breeze each PM. On Saturday, numerous thunderstorms 

are possible along the GA coast.



On Sunday, conditions across the region will see increased 

moisture, with PW approaching 2 inches in spots. At the sfc, 

models indicate that a broad trough will develop across the 

Piedmont and Coastal Plain of GA and the Carolinas. Greater 

moisture convergence within the trough and sea breeze should 

yield scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon 

and evening. High temperatures are forecast to range in the low 

to mid 90s.



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

The H5 pattern will be slow to change late this weekend into 

early next week. Generally, the region will remain under a broad

weakness over the Southeast U.S. with a ridges over the 

Southern Plains and Western Atlantic. The deep moisture combined

with highs in the low to mid 90s, should yield a wide field of 

instability across the region. The forecast will feature 

unsettled weather, with gradually increase in storm activity 

each day. By the middle of next week, a slow-moving cold front 

may slide over the region, likely lingering through Thursday. 

Thunderstorms should develop along the boundary, with likely 

thunderstorms possible. The more activity weather pattern should

favor slightly cooler high temperatures in the low 90s to 

around 90 by Thursday.



&&



.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV 

through 18z Friday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are 

expected this afternoon but should develop and remain inland of 

the terminals. 



Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR will mainly prevail throughout 

the period, however brief flight restrictions are possible 

during afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.



&&



.MARINE...

Tonight: Winds will peak along the land/sea interface through 

the early evening, with speeds in the 10-15 knot range. Then by 

late tonight winds will become more southwesterly with speeds 

mostly 10 knots or less. Seas are expected to average around 2 

feet. 



Friday through Monday: The sfc pattern will support SSE winds 

across the marine zones between 10 to 15 kts. Wind gusts around 

20 kts may occur with the development of the afternoon sea 

breeze. Seas are generally expected to range between 2 to 3 ft.



&&



.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GA...None.

SC...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



NEAR TERM...BSH

SHORT TERM...NED

LONG TERM...NED

AVIATION...BSH/NED

MARINE...BSH/NED

