FXUS64 KTSA 261714

AFDTSA



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tulsa OK

1214 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Issued at 958 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



   - Low thunderstorm chances expand into portions of E OK late

     this afternoon and evening, with low precip chances

     persisting overnight. A storm or two may produce strong to

     marginally severe wind gusts today, primarily in Osage/ Pawnee

     counties.



   - Hot and humid conditions will continue into the weekend with

     heat indices of 95-105 F across the area.



   - Daily isolated to scattered showers and storms likely much of

     this week. Storm coverage may increase late this weekend 

     into early next week.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 958 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Showers and embedded thunderstorms were ongoing along a sfc 

trough/ weak frontal zone in western Oklahoma this morning. This 

feature will translate east today, with additional development 

expected as it moves into north-central Oklahoma this afternoon. 

Showers and storms are then forecast to impinge on northwestern 

portions of our CWA by late afternoon/ evening. Storms may impact 

areas generally along and west of Highway 75 this evening before 

dissipating as instability decreases. While minimal shear should 

keep the severe threat limited, storms this evening may produce 

strong to marginally severe wind gusts, primarily in Osage/ Pawnee

counties. Isolated showers may also develop across the terrain of

SE OK and NW AR, but opted to keep PoPs just below mentionable 

values with coverage expected to remain limited. Aside from minor 

tweaks to PoPs and temps, no significant changes were required for

the morning update.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Today)

Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Large plume of subtropical Pacific moisture remains over the Great

Plains with a weak frontal zone also in that general vicinity.

Both are expected to shift more to the east later today as the 

mid level flow begins to veer with the passage of a shortwave to 

the north. Storm chances will begin to spread more toward

northeast OK late this afternoon and evening as a result. An

isolated pop-up shower remains possible in the terrain as well,

but coverage appears below mentionable levels. Temperatures should

remain in a similar range to what has been observed of late.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Tonight through Wednesday)

Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



The above mentioned moisture plume/frontal zone is forecast to

remain oriented toward northeast OK into the weekend, with

potential expansion of precip chances farther southeast toward 

I-40 corridor and into northwest AR Friday and Saturday.

Temperatures should continue close to seasonal norms.



The general trend early next week remains a stronger wave moving

across the northern CONUS, pushing a front toward the region as

the upper ridge in the east weakens. While a significant front

passage isn't likely, there should be an increase in shower and

thunderstorm coverage and a resultant down trends in 

temperatures.



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



VFR conditions are likely to persist through the forecast period

for all sites, outside of direct influence from thunderstorms.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across N-Central

OK this afternoon and move east, potentially impacting BVO/TUL/RVS

between 00-05z. Storms may produce gusty outflow winds and heavy 

rainfall, but should be weakening as they approach NE OK TAF

sites. A low probability for showers and isolated thunderstorms 

continues across E OK overnight and into the morning hours, with 

minimal impacts expected during this period. Additional 

thunderstorm chances are forecast late in the forecast period/ 

tomorrow afternoon.



&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TUL   75  90  75  91 /  20  40  10  20 

FSM   74  93  75  94 /  10  20  10  20 

MLC   73  91  74  93 /  10  20  10  20 

BVO   71  89  71  91 /  30  40  20  20 

FYV   72  89  72  89 /  10  30  10  30 

BYV   72  88  72  89 /  10  30  10  30 

MKO   73  89  73  91 /  10  30  10  20 

MIO   71  88  72  89 /  20  40  20  30 

F10   73  90  73  91 /  10  30  10  20 

HHW   72  90  73  91 /   0  10   0  10 



&&



.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OK...None.

AR...None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...14

LONG TERM....14

AVIATION...43

