ACUS11 KWNS 261755

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 261754 

PAZ000-NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-262000-



Mesoscale Discussion 1455

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1254 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Areas affected...northern

Virginia...Maryland...Delaware...DC...eastern West

Virginia...southern Pennsylvania



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 



Valid 261754Z - 262000Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent



SUMMARY...Storms capable of damaging winds possible this afternoon.



DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has begun to initiate across

portions of the Appalachians. This activity is expected to continue

to expand in coverage through the afternoon/evening. The environment

to the east is hot and unstable (with MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg)

and temperatures in the upper 80s to 90s. Despite the weak flow

aloft and weak shear, steep low-level lapse rates (around 7.5-8

C/km) and moist profiles will support potential for wet downbursts

and damaging outflow winds. This area will be monitored for watch

potential through the afternoon.



..Thornton/Hart.. 06/26/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...



LAT...LON   38957561 37447702 37567833 37957905 38227927 38847910

            39967829 40917720 41327647 41147576 40397519 39057557

            38957561 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN



