FXUS63 KIND 261402

AFDIND



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Indianapolis IN

1002 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- *HEAT ADVISORY* continues through late day Friday



- Heat indices up to 100-107 degrees and low temperatures near or 

  above 74 degrees through Friday



- Scattered daily afternoon showers/t-storms, isolated strong to 

  severe wind gusts are possible as well as localized flooding



&&



.FORECAST UPDATE...

Issued at 1002 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Only minor edits needed to the forecast this morning. Steepened the 

diurnal temp rise this morning since cloud cover is a bit less than 

modeled. Otherwise, left everything else essentially the same. We 

continue to expect another hot and humid day with isolated to 

scattered showers and thunderstorms...though with a bit less 

coverage than yesterday.



&&



.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...

Issued at 250 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



The overall weather pattern remains nearly unchanged with hot and 

muggy conditions again today. A heat advisory is in effect through 

the period as heat indices are likely to peak around 100-106F in 

most locations by this afternoon. Overnight lows in the 70s and high 

humidity will also result in little to no relief so make sure to 

take extra precautions. Drink plenty of water, limit time outside 

during peak heating, and take frequent breaks in AC or shaded areas.



Scattered diurnal showers and storms are possible later today as 

daytime heating combined with dewpoints in the 70s promotes 

sufficient destabilization. Similar to the past few days, forecast 

soundings depict high DCAPE values during the afternoon, aided by 

steep low-level lapse rates and mid-level dry air. This supports the 

potential for downbursts in any stronger storms that develop. Expect 

wind gusts from these storms to mostly remain sub-severe, but 

isolated damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out. Weak deep-layer 

shear should result in relatively short-lived thunderstorms.



Convection will quickly diminish towards or shortly after sunset due 

to the loss of daytime heating. Quiet weather conditions are then 

expected through the overnight, but look for muggy conditions to 

persist. High dewpoints will keep temperatures in the 70s.



&&



.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...

Issued at 250 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...Heat Advisory Continues through Friday...



Friday will be the last day of extensive heat and humidity across 

Central Indiana. The persistent upper ridging that has been across 

the area will finally begin to drift east, but little to no forcing 

will be in place across Indiana in its wake. Thus as we have seen 

the past several days diurnal afternoon and evening showers and 

storms will be expected. Forecast soundings support this as 

afternoon CAPE is over 2000 J/KG.



Saturday through Monday...



On Friday night into Saturday and again on Monday afternoon and 

night, the flow aloft is suggested to allow a pair of shortwaves to 

push across Indiana, along with a weak cold front. The warm and 

humid air mass that we have seen across the area will still be in 

place and with this added forcing, confidence for showers and storms 

has grown for both Friday night and again on Monday Night. Forecast 

soundings on both Friday Night show deep saturation in place, while 

instability and CAPE near 1900 J/KG will be in place on Monday 

afternoon and evening. Thus it is at these times when pops will be 

greatest.



Sunday looks like it may be a dry day as models suggest weak ridging 

in place over Indiana in the wake of the previous shortwave. This 

should provide some subsidence aloft. Further support a dry Sunday is 

surface high pressure that should be in place stretching from the 

eastern Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley. NBM may try to include 

some low pops heredue to the humid air mass but confidence is low 

for that at this time.



Tuesday and Wednesday...



Northwest flow and subsidence is expected to be across the area on 

Tuesday and Wednesday. This should lead to a dry and cooler days 

with near normal temperatures. Forecast soundings show excellent mid 

level drying during this period.



&&



.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...

Issued at 623 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Impacts:



- Chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms



Discussion:  



Predominately VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. 

However, the warm and humid air mass in place across Central Indiana 

may aid in TSRA development once again this afternoon. Confidence in 

precise timing or coverage is too low for an explicit mention at 

most of the TAF sites. VCTS was added for LAF where storms chances 

are slightly higher though, from 18Z today to 01Z this evening. 

Brief MVFR or worse conditions are possible in convection.



Convection should end or diminish after 01Z this evening. Winds will 

generally be out of the south/southwest during the period and remain 

light under 10 kts.





&&



.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for INZ021-028>031-035>049-

051>057-060>065-067>072.



&&



$$



UPDATE...Eckhoff

SHORT TERM...Melo

LONG TERM...Puma

AVIATION...Melo

