FNUS28 KWNS 262152

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0451 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Valid 281200Z - 041200Z



...Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday...

Stronger westerly mid-level winds under a largely zonal flow pattern

will remain across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Tier states

through the weekend. This will support breezy valley winds within

the Snake River Plain on Day 3/Saturday. These winds will overlap

within a dry boundary layer/low relative humidity environment where

fuels continue to dry, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread.



...Day 5-7/Monday-Wednesday...

Increasing mid-level lapse rates, moisture and elevated instability

along with supportive dynamics from incoming upper-level trough will

promote shower and thunderstorm development across northern

California and along and just east of the Oregon Cascades beginning

as early as Day 4/Sunday, heading into the Day 5/Monday time frame.

The initial build up of mid-level moisture and convection over a

dry, sub-cloud layer will inhibit higher rain amounts under nascent

thunderstorms. Fuels will undergo further drying through the weekend

with above normal temperatures and dry conditions. ERC values near

the 90th percentile are expected by early next week, increasing

ignition potential. Increasing atmospheric moisture Day 6/Tuesday

should promote higher rainfall amounts, limiting dry thunderstorm

threat across the Cascades and portions of central Oregon. A drier,

downslope flow pattern returns to the Cascades Day 7/Wednesday as

the leading mid-level trough axis shifts east into the Great Basin

and Northern Rockies. This would allow potential holdover ignitions

to be exposed to an environment more favorable to fire spread.



...Day 8/Thursday...

Long term ensemble guidance indicates a weak mid-level trough

lingering across the Western U.S. However, forecast signal remains

muted, introducing enough uncertainty to preclude introduction of

any critical fire weather probabilities.



..Williams.. 06/26/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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