FXUS65 KTFX 262052

AFDTFX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Great Falls MT

252 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



 - A few gusty showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon 

   and evening.

 - Gradually drying out and over the weekend with decreasing 

   shower activity each day.

 - Temperatures rise early next week.





&&



.DISCUSSION...



 - Meteorological Overview:



An upper level shortwave trough moving through the Northern 

Rockies today will kick off a few showers and thunderstorms, some 

of which will bring some gusty winds up to 50 or 60 mph with the 

strongest of the storms. With this said, the overall coverage and 

strength of the storms remains slightly uncertain, as cloud cover 

this morning and early afternoon was a bit more stubborn than 

forecast, which has prevented the erosion of a cap that may 

inhibit storm development across the area. 



As we head into the weekend, expect shower and thunderstorm 

activity to decrease as our upper level flow becomes more westerly

and eventually gives way to an upper level ridge early next week.

Temperatures will remain steady through the weekend before 

increasing next week as the ridge builds into the area.

 

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:



Main area of uncertainty in the forecast is with thunderstorms

today and whether or not they are able to produce gusty winds in

excess of 60 mph. Current radar and satellite is showing the

storms begin to develop across western Montana, and while I do

expect these to continue to move eastward, their strength and

organization may be hampered by a large area of convective

inhibition (CIN, also known as a capping inversion) that remains

thanks to some stubborn cloud cover earlier in the day. With this

said, DCAPE (a measure of the potential for air to be cooled by

rainfall) is quite high across the region, which indicates that

some sporadic gusts in excess of 50 mph will be possible, even in

the absence of a stronger storm. Ludwig&&



.AVIATION...

26/18Z TAF Period



VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals during this TAF 

period. The primary concern during this TAF period is isolated 

strong to severe thunderstorms between 16/20Z and 17/03Z. All 

thunderstorms will produce small hail, frequent lightning, and 

gusty, erratic winds. The strongest thunderstorms have the potential 

to produce wind gusts in excess of 48 kts. At the end of this TAF 

period at the KGTF, KHLN, and KBZN terminals there is a 20 - 40% 

chance for showers and thunderstorms. During any thunderstorm there 

will be a brief period of mountain obscuration. -IG



Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation 

weather and hazard information.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

GTF  55  81  51  79 /  30  30   0   0 

CTB  54  73  49  73 /  10  10   0  10 

HLN  54  81  53  79 /  30  40   0   0 

BZN  50  85  49  82 /  20  30  10  10 

WYS  39  75  40  74 /   0  20  10  20 

DLN  49  81  47  81 /  10  20  10  10 

HVR  56  83  54  80 /  20  10   0  10 

LWT  51  75  51  75 /  50  40  20  10 



&&



.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

