ACUS11 KWNS 261943

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 261943 

WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-262115-



Mesoscale Discussion 1458

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0243 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Areas affected...Parts of extreme northeast IA...southeast

MN...southwest WI



Concerning...Tornado Watch 463...



Valid 261943Z - 262115Z



The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 463 continues.



SUMMARY...Both an eastward-moving convective line and developing

cells ahead of the line could pose a tornado threat this afternoon.

Localized damaging wind is also possible.



DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms has developed from southeast MN

into north-central IA, with additional cells gradually developing

east of the line into parts of southwest WI. MLCAPE has increased

into the 1000-1500 J/kg along and immediately north of the warm

front, with a more stable environment farther north, where clouds

have persisted and temperatures are in the 60s F. 



The broken line moving across far southeast MN earlier produced a

reported tornado in Freeborn County, and this portion of the line

will continue to pose a tornado threat as it traverses the warm

frontal zone, where low-level shear/SRH is locally enhanced (as

noted in the KARX VWP). The developing cells east of the line could

also begin to pose a tornado threat, especially if one or more of

these cells can mature and take on more of a front-parallel motion,

leading to increased residence time in the frontal zone. Cell

mergers into the primary line could also result in locally increased

tornado potential. 



Aside from the tornado potential, locally damaging wind will

continue to be possible with the primary convective line as it moves

eastward this afternoon.



..Dean.. 06/26/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...



LAT...LON   44179241 44209163 44109074 43979004 43689005 43209016

            43369100 43449174 43479251 43659255 44179241 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH



