FXUS62 KRAH 261841

AFDRAH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Raleigh NC

240 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

A strong ridge of high pressure will extend over the Mid Atlantic 

through the rest of the week, then slowly shift offshore toward 

Bermuda over the weekend. 



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

As of 945 AM Thursday...   



* A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM today. 



* There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms 

  and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall across 

  central NC this afternoon and evening.



Clear and sunny skies to start the day will for unimpeded daytime 

heating. Combined with lower/mid 70s BL dewpoints, this will support 

strong and robust destabilization across the region.



Initial convective development will likely be tied to to terrain 

induced differential heating and weak convergence along a lee-side 

sfc trough across western NC. As storms evolve, cold-pool driven 

outflow boundaries will become the primary mechanism for additional 

storm development and organization. 



While shear remains weak, the presence of high D-CAPE values (1200-

1700 J/KG) will foster a favorable environment for locally damaging 

wind gusts with the strongest storms. 



In addition to the severe storm threat, dangerous heat will persist 

with afternoon heat indices climbing into the lower to mid 100s, 

posing heat related risks, especially for those spending extended 

time outdoors.  

  



Previous discussion:



Lingering showers will continue to abate over the next hour or two. 

Aloft, high pressure will continue ridging across the mid-Atlantic, 

while a weak area of low pressure slowly drifts nwd across FL 

through tonight. Weak perturbations around the low in the mid-level 

flow this aft/eve could help kick off showers and storms, especially 

along residual surface boundaries, with greatest coverage over the 

wrn Piedmont. There should be plenty of instability, with SBCAPE 

around 2500-3000 J/Kg, but relatively weak shear (less than 20 kts). 

PWATs of 1.7 to 1.9 inches are also expected. An isolated strong 

wind gusts and localized heavy rainfall will be the primary threats 

with the storms. Convection should taper off with loss of heating. 

As for temperatures, earlier convection has helped knock 

temperatures down, with generally low to mid 70s across the area. 

Max low-level thicknesses this evening should be slightly lower than 

previous days, but still 1435-1440 meters. That and the slightly 

lower starting point should result in highs near-slightly lower than 

Wed, mainly in the mid 90s. However, dewpoints also in the low to 

mid 70s will again result in heat index values of 100 to 106. Will 

continue with the Heat Advisory, though the best chance for heat 

indices of 105 or greater will be from the Triangle area east. Lows 

tonight should be in the low to mid 70s, lowest west where better 

coverage of convection is expected.



&&



.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... 

As of 320 AM Thursday...



* Chance of storms once again, mainly across the N and W, with temps 

  remaining just above normal.



The mid-upper low near the FL/GA border early Fri will continue a 

NNW drift over GA through Fri night, while at the surface, weak lee 

troughing holds over the Piedmont. We'll continue to see weak 

vorticity tracking through the NE side of the low over SC into W NC, 

along with shots of upper divergence maxima within the southeasterly 

upper jet exit region, within an area of near 2" PW. There may be 

some areas of convective debris mid cloudiness and patchy low clouds 

to start the day, but overall expect a period of decent heating to 

facilitate convective initiation, under the influence of weak 

dynamically-induced lift, particularly in areas of differential 

heating. The mid level SSE flow between the GA low and anticyclone 

centered off the Carolina coast will remain weak, as will the winds 

throughout the column, resulting in poor bulk shear. But despite 

this, with what is expected to be a period of moderate SBCAPE Fri 

afternoon and decent low and mid level lapse rates across the W 

Carolinas, we should see scattered (numerous in our NW) storms 

develop in the afternoon, primarily slow-moving or meandering storm 

clusters with the potential for strong wind gusts. Convection should 

diminish gradually overnight with nocturnal low level stabilization. 

Expect highs of 88-95, followed by lows in the low-mid 70s under 

partly cloudy skies. -GIH



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

As of 240 PM Thursday... 



* Hot and humid through the weekend with afternoon storm chances.



* Temperatures trend toward normal early next week with increasing 

  chances of storms Tuesday and Wednesday.



Weak upper level anti-cyclonic flow will persist over head on Sunday 

as the weak upper low to our southwest meanders over GA/SC. Forcing 

for convection will mainly be from diurnal influences and left-over 

outflow aided by moderate to strong CAPE given that the local 

airmass will not change much through the weekend.  Daily highs will 

be in the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s. 

This results in heat indices below heat advisory criteria but still 

elevated in the upper 90s and lower 100s.  Fairly climatological 

POPs both days in the 25-35 ranges, with slow moving storms capable 

damaging winds and locally heavy downpours with PW in the 1.5-2 inch 

range.



Monday onward the mid and upper level flow becomes a little more 

dominated by shortwaves crossing the northern US and the overall 

pattern trends to troughing over the eastern US.  A weak cold front 

is forecast to move into the OH Valley region by Tue/Wed, and while 

it is uncertain if or how quickly it moves into NC, there will be 

more Piedmont troughing in the afternoon and mid-level flow to move 

storms over the mountains by Tue/Wed, when POPs should likely be 

maximized areawide in the forecast period.  Highs will trend more 

toward normal as well.





&&



.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

As of 130 PM Thursday...



24 hour TAF period: Highest coverage of storms and associated sub-

VFR restrictions are expected across the western terminals (KINT and 

KGSO) this afternoon and evening before dissipating from loss of 

heating. Cannot rule out patchy ground fog at fog-prone locations 

like KRWI. Otherwise, expect predominately VFR conditions through 

the TAF period ending at 18z Friday.



Outlook: The best chance of storms on Friday will once again be 

focused across the western terminals. Beyond that, a daily pattern 

of diurnally driven convection and patchy early morning fog is 

expected through early next week. 



&&



.CLIMATE...

Record Daily High Minimum Temperatures...



             Raleigh        Greensboro      Fayetteville

 

June 26      77 (2024)      74 (2010)       76 (1997)

June 27      76 (1952)      76 (1969)       77 (1998)

June 28      76 (1952)      76 (1969)       78 (1914)

June 29      78 (1914)      74 (2024)       76 (1969)

June 30      80 (1936)      77 (2024)       79 (1936)



Record Daily Maximum Temperatures...



             Raleigh        Greensboro      Fayetteville



June 26      103 (2024)      102 (1914)     101 (1951)

June 27      104 (1954)      102 (1954)     102 (1998)

June 28      100 (1959)       99 (1959)     105 (1954)

June 29      105 (2012)      102 (2012)     106 (2012)

June 30      105 (2012)      101 (1959)     102 (2012)



&&



.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for 

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...Hartfield 

NEAR TERM...CBL/KC

SHORT TERM...Hartfield

LONG TERM...BLS

AVIATION...CBL

CLIMATE...RAH

