FXUS62 KCHS 262152

AFDCHS



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Charleston SC

552 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will extend across the region through early next

week. A slow moving cold front may push over the area by the

middle of next week. 



&&



.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

Early evening visible imagery shows cumulus remains shallow with

no signs of vertical development. Conditions will remain dry

through this evening and into the overnight period. Isolated

showers/tstms will develop closer to the west wall of the Gulf

Stream late, but no activity is expected overnight land. Lows

will range from the lower 70s well inland to the upper 70s/near

80 at the beaches and Downtown Charleston.



&&



.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Friday and Saturday, the forecast area will remain under a 

broad H5 weaknesses between ridges to the west and east. At the 

sfc, high pressure will remain centered over the western 

Atlantic, circulation around the high will maintain deep 

moisture across the region. Forecast soundings each afternoon 

feature PW between 1.6 to 1.8 inches. The deep moisture combined

with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s should yield CAPE 

between 1500-2000 J/kg. High resolution guidance indicates that 

scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead

of the sea breeze each PM. On Saturday, numerous thunderstorms 

are possible along the GA coast.



On Sunday, conditions across the region will see increased 

moisture, with PW approaching 2 inches in spots. At the sfc, 

models indicate that a broad trough will develop across the 

Piedmont and Coastal Plain of GA and the Carolinas. Greater 

moisture convergence within the trough and sea breeze should 

yield scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon 

and evening. High temperatures are forecast to range in the low 

to mid 90s.



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

The H5 pattern will be slow to change late this weekend into 

early next week. Generally, the region will remain under a broad

weakness over the Southeast U.S. with a ridges over the 

Southern Plains and Western Atlantic. The deep moisture combined

with highs in the low to mid 90s, should yield a wide field of 

instability across the region. The forecast will feature 

unsettled weather, with gradually increase in storm activity 

each day. By the middle of next week, a slow-moving cold front 

may slide over the region, likely lingering through Thursday. 

Thunderstorms should develop along the boundary, with likely 

thunderstorms possible. The more activity weather pattern should

favor slightly cooler high temperatures in the low 90s to 

around 90 by Thursday.



&&



.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

27/00z TAF Discussion:

KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through Friday evening. Risk for afternoon

tstms is too low to include a mention at any terminal at this

time.



Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR will mainly prevail throughout 

the period, however brief flight restrictions are possible 

during afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.



&&



.MARINE...

Tonight: Winds will peak along the land/sea interface through 

the early evening, with speeds in the 10-15 knot range. Then by 

late tonight winds will become more southwesterly with speeds 

mostly 10 knots or less. Seas are expected to average around 2 

feet. 



Friday through Monday: The sfc pattern will support SSE winds 

across the marine zones between 10 to 15 kts. Wind gusts around 

20 kts may occur with the development of the afternoon sea 

breeze. Seas are generally expected to range between 2 to 3 ft.



&&



.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GA...None.

SC...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$

