FXUS63 KDDC 261636

AFDDDC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

1136 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Scattered strong thunderstorms developing this afternoon,

  focused across areas east of a Liberal-Dodge City-Larned 

  line. 



- SPC Marginal Risk (1 of 5) of severe for a damaging wind risk

  with only a very low probability of large hail (less than 5%

  prob. risk within 25 miles of a point). 



- WPC Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall late this  

  afternoon/evening focused mainly on south central Kansas, 

  generally east of an Ashland-Kinsley-Great Bend line.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 332 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



The overnight water vapor loop and RAP objective analysis fields 

continued to show a deep, moist layer of the lower-mid troposphere 

extending from West Texas/Eastern New Mexico northward across 

western Kansas into Nebraska. Much of the late night convective 

activity was confined to Nebraska in a region of strongest mid-

tropospheric ascent ahead of a slow-moving shortwave trough centered 

across the Northern Colorado Rockies into eastern Wyoming. This 

shortwave trough was inducing a weak reflection at the surface with 

a broad low pressure trough extending from central Nebraska down 

into west central Kansas.



Through today and tonight, the surface trough axis/front (negligible 

temperature gradient to even call it a front across western Kansas) 

will push slowly southeast, weakening as it does so by late this 

afternoon.  Despite the weakening nature of this trough axis, there 

should be enough convergence to support renewed scattered 

thunderstorm activity along it and out ahead of it within the deep 

moist layer where there will be very little capping inversion once 

temperatures reach the mid to upper 80s. Scattered thunderstorms, a 

few of which marginally severe, will most likely develop along and 

southeast of roughly Liberal to Dodge City to Larned line. HREF 75th 

percentile SBCAPE of upwards of 2500 J/kg will certainly be enough 

for some severe storms, however the lack of deep layer shear 

(generally 20 knots or less of 0-6km AGL shear vector magnitude) 

will prevent supercell storms. The continued deep moist layer, 

characterized by mean mixing ratios of 7.5 to 8 g/kg in the 850-

500mb layer, will favor highly water-loaded updrafts, favoring 

strong downburst/microburst potential and not so much large hail. We 

will message the damaging wind potential and torrential rainfall 

rates as a result. The southeast counties are in a WPC Marginal Risk 

for excessive rainfall, generally east of an Ashland to Kinsley to 

Great Bend line.



Going into Friday, the aforementioned surface trough axis/front will 

have completely dissolved with broad southeasterly winds resuming. 

The surface air mass will continue quite moist as dewpoints will 

remain well into the 60s across much of southwest Kansas as 

afternoon highs top out upper 80s to lower 90s. The best severe 

convective risk late Friday/Friday evening will shift back northwest 

to the north of our DDC CWA, so Friday and Friday is forecast to be 

fairly quiet for southwest Kansas. That being said, we will still 

need to watch for a possible small to moderately sized mesoscale 

convective system (MCS) to clip our far northern counties late 

Friday Night.



Saturday looks to be the hottest day of the 7-day period with 

widespread mid to upper 90s possible. The lack of any strong forcing 

for ascent in the mid levels as well as the lack of strong low level 

convergence will prevent organized convection, so most of our region 

Saturday and Saturday Night will remain storm-free. Late weekend 

into early next week, another storm system within the polar 

westerlies up north will likely bring another surface front down 

into the Central Plains, leading to increased thunderstorm chances. 

This is reflected in latest NBM POPs with 30-50 POPs Sunday Night 

(highest northeast) and 30-40 POPs Monday Night (highest south). We 

do not see any indication of a heat wave developing through this 7-

day forecast period, including Days 4-7 with NBM highs generally in 

the mid to upper 80s with some 90s creeping back in again toward 

Wednesday-Thursday of next week as we approach the holiday

weekend.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1133 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



A surface trough will be moving eastward this afternoon and

become the focus for surface based thunderstorm development.

This moderate CAPE, relatively high moisture content and low 

shear environment will equate to the potential for storms 

(about a 30- 50% chance and TEMPOs were used given the CAMS 

spatio-temporal reflectivity fields) along that trough to be 

efficient rain producers. High rain rates locally and briefly

can lower visibility to a mile or two - as well as creating 

locally strong, up to 50 knot downbursts. Brief MVFR ceilings as

well with any CB, all mainly between 23z and 03z from Liberal 

(LBL) to Dodge City (DDC). VFR conditions otherwise and south 

winds under 10kt.



&&



.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Umscheid

AVIATION...Russell

