FXUS63 KEAX 262021

AFDEAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

321 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Strong to severe storms capable of producing damaging wind

  gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening across NE

  Kansas and NW Missouri.



- Locally moderate to heavy rainfall possible this evening into

  late tonight.



- Hot and humid conditions continue through Sunday.



- Showers and storms likely for Sunday evening/night.



- Temperatures should cool a bit down toward seasonal normals

  (upper 80s) for Monday and Tuesday.





&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Water vapor and 500 mb height analysis shows a shortwave trough

moving eastward across the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, a weak 

surface cold front is moving eastward across parts of eastern NE

and northeast KS, with a surface low moving into southern MN. 

With strong surface heating and dew points in the lower 70s, a

corridor of 4000-4500 J/kg of surface based CAPE has developed 

across far NW Missouri and NE Kansas this afternoon. Isolated to

scattered showers and thunderstorms have already initiated 

across this area out ahead of the front, with these storms 

moving to the east northeast. While shear is weak (only around 

15 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear), steep low level lapse rates and 

DCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg should support a damaging wind 

threat this afternoon and early evening. As such, a severe 

thunderstorm watch is in effect through 9 PM tonight for 

portions of extreme NE Kansas into NW and northern Missouri. By 

later this evening, a cluster or line/broken line of storms is 

likely to develop along/near the front across far NW Missouri, 

and move to the southeast through the late evening hours into 

the early overnight hours. The main concern with this secondary 

convective development will likely be the threat for moderate to

heavy rainfall, as PWATs are forecast to reach close to 2". The

12z HREF had probability matched means on the order of 1.5" to 

2.5" across a decent swath of the CWA, with localized rainfall 

amounts up to 4". Biggest concerns will be moderate/heavy 

rainfall over the areas that received the 5+ inches of rain from

Monday night into Tuesday evening, as well as across the Kansas

City metro. Due to these reasons, went ahead and issued a flood

watch from 5 pm this afternoon through 3 am Friday morning for 

much of the CWA as a precaution. 



Hot and humid conditions continue tomorrow for most locations

(likely slightly cooler across northern and NE Missouri behind 

the front), with afternoon heat indices in the mid to upper 90s.

A few afternoon showers and storms may be possible again,

primarily south of Interstate 70. The 18z HRRR does suggest the

potential for robust convection to fire along a remnant outflow

boundary or differential heating boundary by early to mid

tomorrow afternoon across the KC metro, with wind gusts up to 

40 mph and moderate rainfall possible, but we will see how

things evolve tonight into tomorrow morning. Hot and humid again

on Saturday, with afternoon heat indices in the upper 90s to 

near 100 degrees (best chance for 100+ degree heat index across 

NW Missouri). While current grids show only slight chance

afternoon PoPs toward the Ozarks, some guidance (namely the

ECMWF) suggests higher precipitation chances.



Better chances for showers and storms, including some locally

moderate rainfall, arrives on Sunday evening/night as a low

amplitude trough moves across the northern Plains, amplifying as

it moves toward the Great Lakes, and sending a cold front toward

and through our CWA from the northwest. The front may stall out

across southern portions of the region as we head into Monday,

keeping rain chances in the forecast through Monday afternoon.

Cooler temperatures willcome behind the front, with highs back

down toward seasonal normals (upper 80s) for Monday and Tuesday

afternoon.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Currently VFR at all terminals with breezy SSW winds with gusts

up to 25 knots. These conditions should continue through the

afternoon hours. A cluster of thunderstorms is likely to develop

by late afternoon across NW Missouri, moving through STJ 

between roughly 1z and 4z tonight, MCI between 3z and 6z, and 

MKC and IXD between 4z and 7z. These storms could produce a few 

strong wind gusts up to around 50 to 55 mph, especially at STJ. 

Rainfall could be moderate to heavy at times, with VIS dropping 

to as low as 2SM or so. After the storms exit by late tonight, 

VFR conditions and dry weather is expected for the remainder of 

the period, with relatively light southwesterly winds.



&&



.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ001>007-011>016-

     020>024-028>031-037-038-043.

KS...Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ025-057-102>105.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...BMW

AVIATION...BMW

