FXUS62 KTBW 261911

AFDTBW



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL

311 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 311 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Convection beginning to pop up here and there thanks to daytime

heating. Overall coverage not that great at this time though as

precipitable water is only around 1.5 inches. However, we do have 

rather cold mid level temperatures around -9C associated with the

upper level low over the area and this will help to destabilize 

the atmosphere leading to more numerous showers and thunderstorms 

later this afternoon and evening. Highest coverage should be along

the coastal counties later this afternoon and evening where the 

sea breeze will be located, then any convection should drift west 

offshore by later this evening. Overnight the low level flow will 

begin to shift to more southerly which could bring a few 

showers/storms back to the coastal areas toward morning. 



For Friday the transition to southwesterly flow (Regime 4) will

get underway as the ridge axis shifts to across the southern half

of the Florida peninsula. This overall pattern looks to hold into

the middle of next week which favors the highest rain chances 

over the eastern half of the Florida peninsula, as well as into 

southwest Florida which will be near the axis. However, over the 

weekend the upper level low will linger over the southeast U.S.

keeping some rather cool mid-level temperatures across the 

area. Then as we move into the first half of next week some upper

level troughing will link up with this low with a series of

shortwaves moving through it. This will lead to higher rain

chances across the northern waters and Nature Coast during this

period as we should see some late night and morning convection 

develop over the gulf waters and move onshore each day. Highest 

rain chances will be across the Nature Coast and then moving into 

the eastern half of the peninsula and southwest Florida during the

late afternoon and evening each day.



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 311 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF forecast 

period, but scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will 

develop this afternoon and evening causing MVFR/local IFR 

conditions. East to southeast winds at 5 to 7 knots are expected  

this afternoon, but may shift to southwest to west for a short 

time at SRQ as the sea breeze develops. Gusty erratic winds will 

be possible near any showers and thunderstorms. 



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 311 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Easterly flow early tonight will begin to transition to southwest

to west Friday through early next week as the ridge axis sets up 

across south Florida. Scattered to numerous showers are expected

to move west off the land this evening. Then over the next few

days as the flow shifts to southwest to west the better chances 

of showers and thunderstorms will shift to during the late night 

and morning hours.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 311 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Summertime convection and humidity will keep fire danger at a

minimum. Winds will remain less than 15 mph, except gusty and 

erratic in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms. 



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TPA  77  91  79  91 /  40  50  30  60 

FMY  74  92  77  94 /  50  60  20  60 

GIF  74  94  75  93 /  30  70  30  70 

SRQ  74  90  77  91 /  50  50  30  50 

BKV  70  92  72  92 /  40  50  30  60 

SPG  77  89  79  88 /  50  50  30  50 



&&



Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4 

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4



For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: 

    https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology



&&



.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.

Gulf waters...None.



&&



$$



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