FXUS63 KLBF 261911

AFDLBF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service North Platte NE

211 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Rain and thunderstorm chances return Friday and Saturday with

  a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather each day.



- Heat looks to briefly return this weekend as highs climb into

  the middle and upper 90s with heat indices approaching the 

  triple digits for some on Saturday.



- Daily rain and thunderstorm chances continue Sunday through

  the middle of next week (20-40%), however, the threat for

  severe weather is uncertain.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



This afternoon, satellite analysis shows waning cumulus across 

central Nebraska. This was occurring on the backside of modest low 

pressure centered near KSUX. West-northwesterly flow and encroaching 

high pressure has effectively shunted the richer moisture east of 

the area and ahead of the trailing surface trough that extends 

southwest from near KLNK southwest through northern Kansas. The 

result of this is much weaker instability (though still adequate for 

any thunderstorm that can develop) and drier air throughout the 

column. This combined with the lack of any appreciable forcing 

mechanism should allow for a dry forecast to persist through the 

evening and overnight. Forecast soundings show just enough of a 

capping inversion around h75 that should hold things in check given 

the lack of lift. High temperatures range from the middle 70s north 

(75F at VTN as of 1845z) to the low 80s south (81F at IML). Though a 

few more degrees are likely to be tacked onto this, many locations 

will likely hold into the 70s and low 80s which is slightly below 

normal for late June.



Tonight...little in the way of sensible weather is expected across 

the region. Some minor attempts at convective initiation may occur 

in areas of the Nebraska Panhandle, particularly around the greater 

topographical features such as the Pine Ridge, however this activity 

is likely to struggle as flow carries it east. Don't believe the 

potential for this activity to arrive in our western zones is great 

enough for an introduction of low-end PoPs and so will keep the 

forecast dry as a result. Skies will generally clear with lows 

falling into the lower 60s. Steady south to southeasterly flow 

should allow dew points to remain steady overnight and currently, 

many locations report low to middle 60s dew points. Believe there to 

be some threat for fog tonight citing crossover temperatures and 

recent heavy rainfall. Both SREF and HREF output favors east of 

Highway 83 with probabilities of falling below 1SM climb to around 

20-50%. Will insert a mention of patchy fog for now focusing on the 

aforementioned areas but also will include typical problem valleys. 

Should fog develop, it is not anticipated to be a long-lasting 

concern...on the order of 2-4 hours...before dissipating.



&&



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Friday/Friday Night...fairly active weather returns to the area to 

end the week. Aloft, heights climb behind departing northern stream 

disturbance. Enhanced mid-level flow will extend east out of the 

Pacific Northwest and into the Northern Rockies. A quick moving 

shortwave/PV anomaly will eject out during the day Friday across the 

Dakotas with some influence extending south into western Nebraska 

during the afternoon and evening. At the surface, a modest dryline 

will setup across western Nebraska with a moisture tongue extending 

north through central and eastern Nebraska up into southwest North 

Dakota. Forecast soundings show through daytime heating that 

residual surface based convective inhibition (SBCIN) erodes through 

the day due to daytime heating with strong life via the dryline 

circulation. This should allow for isolated to scattered development 

in a north northeast to south southwest arc through the heart of the 

forecast area. Within the warm sector east of the dryline, ample 

instability will be in place thanks to afternoon highs in the upper 

80s to near 90F beneath steep mid-level lapse rates. Moderate to 

strong instability will result with HREF painting 80%+ probabilities 

of exceeding 2000 j/kg SBCAPE and various deterministic solutions 

suggesting 3500-4500 j/kg MUCAPE in the area. With westerly h5 flow 

around 25 to 30 knots, believe shear will be adequate for multicell 

to quasi-supercellular structures as surface flow largely remains out 

of the south and 0-6km BWD values range from 25 to 35 knots. Given 

magnitude of DCAPE and 0-3km max theta-e differences, 1500+ j/kg and 

< -30C, believe damaging winds are the greatest threat. This is 

supported by soundings showing inverted-v profiles with warm and dry 

boundary layers. This supports moderate to strong cold pool 

generation and as a result a damaging wind threat. While shear 

vectors appear to be orthogonal to the surface dryline, storm 

propensity to remain discrete for long is in doubt. Because of this, 

believe any threat for large hail to be fairly limited with the 

greatest concern being the damaging wind potential. Though slightly 

backed surface winds may increase SRH, believe high LCLs and 

unfavorable storm mode will preclude much if any tornado threat. 

Believe storms become possible as early as 3pm CDT (20z) and persist 

through the early evening before exiting east. Given recent heavy 

rain events, believe it's worth mentioning that brief moderate to 

heavy downpours are possible but expected rainfall totals should be 

limited to 2" or less and fall generally in areas that saw less 

significant rainfall over the past 24 to 48 hours.



Saturday/Saturday Night...in the wake of a northern stream 

disturbance, a trailing cool front will slide south across the 

northern and central Plains and likely stall somewhere across 

western Nebraska. While this frontal boundary will unlikely exhibit 

much in temperature variations, a stout moisture gradient will set 

up as broad southwesterly flow ahead of the feature will continue to 

pump in richer low-level moisture thanks to prolonged fetch from the 

Gulf moving up from the Southern High Plains. Various deterministic 

solutions depict broad upper 60s to lower 70s dew points across the 

warm sector. Usually this is slightly overstated and believe the NBM 

median is closer to the outcome I believe will occur. This paints a 

few locations reaching 70F but most locations remaining in the 

middle 60s. To back this up, SREF probabilities of > 70F dew points 

peak around 50% for far north central Nebraska. As afternoon 

temperatures climb into the middle to upper 90s, combined with the 

increased mugginess, heat concerns will arise. For now, have a few 

areas reaching Heat Advisory criteria (Heat Index values > 100F). 

Should this trend continue, later forecasts may need to issue 

Advisories for our south and east zones. With moderate lapse rates 

remaining in place, moderate to strong instability once again 

appears likely to develop during the afternoon and evening. This 

instability will follow the richest low-level moisture however and 

as a result the strongest instability may reside just east of the 

forecast area but should still surpass 3500 j/kg east of Highway 83. 

While mid-level heights are likely to remain fairly static, 

convective temperatures should breach by late afternoon which will 

allow for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop along the 

frontal boundary in areas of maximized convergence. The lack of more 

appreciable forcing aloft will likely preclude a greater discrete 

storm mode threat and cap any hail threat as a result while 

maintaining a greater damaging wind gust threat. Day-over-day, 

probabilities of exceeding 0.25" for both the calendar day Friday 

and Saturday are fairly similar: reaching about 20% for portions of 

north central Nebraska. While locally heavier amounts are certainly 

expected, this suggests the threat for flooding should remain fairly 

limited and thus any threat for hydro concerns will be low. Behind 

the front, an approaching shortwave may allow for some convection to 

fire off the higher terrain to the west and encroach the eastern 

Panhandle in the evening. This may present a second round of storms 

for a few locations late Saturday night into Sunday. Have maintained 

PoPs overnight as a result of this potential though believe any 

severe threat will have largely diminished by this time.





Sunday and beyond...general zonal flow will gradually amplify across 

the Inner-Mountain West as mid-level high pressure strengthens 

across the Four Corners region. Further north, a pronounced 

shortwave disturbance will dive southeast into the upper Mississippi 

Valley late Sunday into Monday. The result will be relatively cooler 

temperatures for much of next week. Forecast highs for Sunday 

through Tuesday will likely hold in the low to middle 80s. 

Eventually, ridging aloft will shift east across the Central Rockies 

and with it come some warmer temperatures. NAEFS guidance hints at 

values moderating a few degrees and with increased southerly flow, 

expecting daytime highs to see a notable boost. Latest deterministic 

values hover between the 25th and 50th percentile values. Meanwhile, 

75th and 90th percentile values suggest fairly expansive low to 

middle 90s. Believe in the coming days temperatures will likely 

trend up though there does not appear to be any signal for highly 

anomalous values, or ECWMF Extreme Forecast Index anomalies, at this 

time. Regarding rain and thunderstorms, daily chances exist through 

the valid forecast period. This largely appears to be tied to moist 

upslope flow interacting off the higher terrain to the west. Ridge 

breakdown sometime Wednesday and Thursday may allow for more 

expansive probabilities around that time though variations within 

deterministic guidance precludes greater certainty with the 

evolution of the extended forecast.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.



Lingering cloudiness should gradually wane as modest low

pressure continues to progress east. Expecting a return to clear

or mostly clear skies by this evening. Overnight tonight,

believe some fog is possible particularly in the river valleys

and portions of north central Nebraska. Have included this at

both LBF and VTN with HREF guidance hints at potential for

seeing degraded flight rules. Went fairly aggressive and

introduce IFR and LIFR conditions for LBF and VTN respectively.

Believe this may be cleaned up with later forecasts but even if

this occurs, the window for these conditions appears brief and

on the order of a few hours. Skies should quickly clear after

daybreak Friday with a return to VFR expected.



&&



.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...NMJ

LONG TERM...NMJ

AVIATION...NMJ

