FXUS64 KMEG 261831

AFDMEG



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Memphis TN

131 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New DISCUSSION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 131 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



- Hot and humid conditions will continue through the rest of the

  week. A Heat Advisory remains in effect areawide until Friday

  night.

 

- Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms will occur each

  day. A strong to severe storm could occur this afternoon along 

  and south of Interstate 40 with damaging winds being the primary

  threat.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

(This evening through next Wednesday)

Issued at 131 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Rex blocking continues today as an upper low slides westward along

the southern periphery of the heat dome over the southern CONUS. 

Outflow from thunderstorms last night has pushed through the 

region this morning, bringing cooler air and some clouds across 

the eastern half of the area. This has kept temperatures at bay so

far today and will likely limit the spatial extent of locations 

that experience 100+ heat indices. However, no changes were made 

to the heat advisory given the duration of the current heat wave 

and the expectation for 100+ heat indices area wide tomorrow. 



In the meantime this afternoon, storms are already beginning to 

develop along and ahead of the aforementioned outflow boundary in 

W TN and E AR. MLCAPE greater than 3000 J/kg in combination with 

weak to nonexistent shear will promote pulse mode thunderstorms 

carrying the potential for hybrid microbursts. Thunderstorm 

coverage will diminish quickly after sunset with the chance for 

patchy fog tomorrow morning. 



The upper low is expected to keep eating away at the ridging

across the area into this weekend. A meager decrease in 500 mb 

heights is expected, but will not be enough to meaningfully 

change the prevailing temperature forecast from hot to cool. 

Instead, a net cooling of only a few degrees will occur with heat 

indices falling to around 100 with higher values possible within 

the MS River Delta. No additional heat headlines were added for 

Saturday or Sunday, but are likely to be introduced in upcoming 

forecast periods in the southwestern half of the region. 

Scattered, pulse- like thunderstorms are possible with limited 

concerns for damaging winds.



A zonal upper pattern will take over next week, as opposed to the

amplified ridging present now. Guidance keeps the main belt of 

westerlies along the Canadian border alongside a few tropical 

perturbations in the Gulf. Therefore, Monday's heat indices will

also be similar to this weekends. ECMWF and GFS guidance amplify 

a shortwave trough over the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday, which in 

turn strengthens high pressure over the northern Plains. Any other

time of the year this would normally be linked to a frontal 

passage, but neither model seems keen on taking a front as far 

south as TN and AR, let alone MS. So, current thinking is that 

this boundary will wash out or stall by the time it makes it to 

our latitude Tuesday evening with only a few showers and storms 

to show. Highs after Tuesday will be in the upper 80s and low 90s

with heat indices from 90 - 100 F through the end of the period.



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Storms are firing along outflow boundaries in far northwest TN and

in east Arkansas and should increase in coverage throughout the 

afternoon hours. South to southwest winds will prevail through the

TAF cycle, generally 7kts or less during daylight hours, 3-4 kts 

overnight. Additional storms are expected to develop by 18z 

tomorrow. Patchy 3-5SM fog/BR is possible overnight near TUP and

MKL.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



High moisture will continue through the period with minimum

relative humidity values unlikely to drop below 40%. This, in 

combination with light 20 foot winds, precludes and concerns for 

fire weather through the period. However, heat headlines will

continue through tomorrow with more hot and humid weather expected

through the weekend. 



&&



.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-

     036-048-049-058.



MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for MOZ113-115.



MS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for MSZ001>017-020>024.



TN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for TNZ001>004-019>022-

     048>055-088>092.



&&



$$



PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB

AVIATION...JDS

