ACUS11 KWNS 261648

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 261648 

VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-261845-



Mesoscale Discussion 1453

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1148 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Areas affected...southern Appalachians into northern Georgia



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 



Valid 261648Z - 261845Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent



SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind and some

instances of severe hail possible this afternoon.



DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is ongoing this morning across

portions of eastern Tennessee and western South Carolina, with

occasional severe pulses. Temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s

to 90s across the Carolinas into Georgia and eastern Tennessee, with

dew points in the upper 60s to 70s. Continued heating under sunny

skies (outside of the areas with convection) should yield further

destabilization and MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg by the afternoon.

Morning 12z sounding analysis indicates cool mid-levels, with modest

mid-level lapse rates. Though flow aloft is weak, moderate

instability and steepening low-level lapse  with heating will allow

for potential for wet downbursts and damaging outflow winds. A few

isolated instances of severe hail will also be possible, owing to

steep lapse rates. This area will be monitored for watch potential

through the afternoon.



..Thornton/Hart.. 06/26/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...FFC...

BMX...



LAT...LON   33658324 33348429 33308482 33518519 33818538 34228526

            34838478 36218303 36878212 37368145 37758054 38077982

            38177941 38177877 38017842 37827816 37577801 37377792

            37037815 36757885 36417954 36178008 36028034 35498090

            34778186 34208257 33658324 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN



