FXUS62 KFFC 261755

AFDFFC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Peachtree City GA

155 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...



.SHORT TERM...

(Today through Friday)

Issued at 237 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Key Messages:



    - Diurnally-enhanced scattered showers and thunderstorms are

      expected to develop this afternoon and evening. 



    - Some storms could become severe with a primary risk for 

      strong downburst wind gusts.



    - A Heat Advisory is in place through 8 PM for parts of 

      northwest Georgia.



    - Additional thunderstorms are again expected on Friday 

      afternoon and evening.



Ongoing widespread thunderstorms across central and western Georgia 

early this morning will gradually diminish through the predawn hours 

as any lingering instability is consumed. Quieter and drier 

conditions will then persist through early afternoon as the 

atmosphere will take awhile to recover from the widespread storms 

early this morning. However, ample instability is again forecast to 

develop by late afternoon with MLCAPE values on the order of 2500-

3500 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within 

this environment. While forecast lapse rates are not as extreme as 

Wednesday's environment, there will still be sufficient support for 

at least a few severe thunderstorms with a primary risk for strong 

downburst wind gusts as well as a few instances of hail up to size 

of dime to quarter size. For this reason, SPC has maintained a 

Marginal (level 1 of 5 risk) for the entire forecast area. Storms 

could persist into the late evening, though unlike tonight they 

should diminish fairly rapidly thereafter.



As far as temperatures are concerned, forecast highs should be a 

couple of degrees below Wednesday's values for most of the area. It 

will still be hot out there, though, with heat index values peaking 

in the 99-103 range for most of us. A Heat Advisory is in effect for 

parts of northwest Georgia where heat index values are more likely 

to nudge 105 degrees this afternoon for a more sustained period. 

Elsewhere, brief periods of heat index values at or over 105 are 

possible, though developing late afternoon convection should tend to 

keep these readings fairly transient. Still, it's a good idea to 

take heat precautions as conditions will remain on the hot side.



On Friday, little change in the overall pattern and environment is 

expected. With the area remaining in southwest flow around the 

periphery of the western Atlantic high, abundant diurnally-drive 

afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are again 

expected. Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will again be 

possible with an attendant strong downburst wind potential. 



RW



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Friday night through Wednesday)

Issued at 237 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Key Messages:



 - Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will continue in 

Georgia through next Thursday.



 - Temperatures will gradually fall back to average levels (88-92 

degrees) for early July by the start of next week.



This Weekend & Early Next Week:



The subtropical high over the western Atlantic will be the driving 

force behind Georgia's weather over the weekend and through most of 

next week. Our location on the western side of high will favor light 

southwest flow and keep humidity levels at very summer like levels. 

High temperatures in the low 90s this weekend should gradually drift 

towards the upper 80s by the middle of the workweek. The strongest 

subsidence associated with the ridge will remain over the Atlantic, 

and this will allow diurnally driven convection to flourish in the 

Southeast each day. Thus scattered afternoon and evening 

thunderstorm activity should be expected in Georgia through at least 

next Thursday. Instability should be average each afternoon (MLCAPE 

1000-2500 j/kg), promoting good updrafts with any storms. However 

the usual lack of summer time wind shear (0-6 km shear below 15 kt) 

and limited mid level lapse rates (near 5.5 C/km) should restrict 

the potential for severe weather significantly.



Albright



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 136 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



VFR conditions across the area but looking for convection to get 

going in the next few hours. Should see another round of SHRA/TSRA

this afternoon and evening with the best chance for the TAF sites

happening around sunset (give or take an hour or two). Winds 

should stay mainly out of the W-NW in the 5-10kt range but will 

see some gusty winds to 30kt in and around any convective 

activity. VSBYs expected to stay in the VFR range but like the 

winds could see some MVFR VSBYs in and around the thunderstorms. 



//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Confidence medium to high on all elements.



01



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Athens          94  70  91  70 /  50  30  60  40 

Atlanta         95  71  92  73 /  50  40  60  40 

Blairsville     90  65  87  65 /  60  30  70  40 

Cartersville    95  69  92  70 /  50  40  60  40 

Columbus        95  71  92  72 /  40  30  50  40 

Gainesville     93  70  90  71 /  60  40  60  40 

Macon           94  70  92  70 /  40  20  60  40 

Rome            93  70  90  70 /  50  40  60  30 

Peachtree City  94  68  92  70 /  40  30  60  40 

Vidalia         93  71  93  71 /  40  20  50  40 



&&



.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ001>005-011-012-

019-020-030.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...RW

LONG TERM....Albright

AVIATION...01

