FXUS61 KBTV 262338

AFDBTV



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

738 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

Much cooler temperatures with plenty of clouds will impact our 

region today, along with a few light rain showers. Any rainfall 

amounts will be light and generally under a tenth of an inch. An 

active period of weather is anticipated late Friday into Saturday 

with several rounds of localized heavy rainfall expected. Drier and 

warmer weather returns by early next week.



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

As of 715 PM EDT Thursday...The edge of the cloud deck has begun

to move south with clear skies in the northern Champlain Valley

and near the international border. This clearing is likely to

continue south towards central Vermont where the cloud clearing

trend will stall. No drastic changes to this update, but did 

add patchy fog for parts of eastern Vermont in the Connecticut 

River Valley tonight and did decrease QPF for Friday afternoon.

Crossover temperatures this afternoon reached the low 50s, and 

with the current clearing trend, cooling to that threshold

tonight appears likley. Furthermore, showers this afternoon 

will provide more than enough moisture for fog development. 

Pertaining to tomorrow, 18Z CAMs and NBM runs suggest a slower 

system at the onset with precipitation holding off across 

northern New York until mid to late afternoon Friday. So did 

adjust precipitation chances and amounts back by a few hours. 



Previous Discussion...High temperatures this afternoon have 

only climbed into the upper 60s and low 70s, with plenty of 

cloud cover across the region. Some isolated to scattered shower

activity will continue to linger into tomorrow. Overnight lows 

tonight will be fairly seasonably, with most locations dropping 

into the 50s. Cooler conditions will continue into tomorrow, 

with high temperatures once again only warming into the upper 

60s and low 70s.



&&



.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...An active period of weather is still

anticipated for Friday night through Saturday, with several rounds

of showers and embedded thunderstorms possible. The environment will

be quite favorable for efficient rainfall processes, with PWAT

values nearing 2.0 inches and deep warm layer cloud depths. Given

the favorable heavy rain set- up, isolated flash flooding will be

possible, especially in locations that receive multiple rounds of

rainfall. Compared to the previous forecast, the axis of the

heaviest precipitation has trended further northward, keeping just

the southern periphery near the international border. Despite the

current trend, any upstream convection and potential MCS will likely

influence the exact location of the heavier rainfall so there is

still some uncertainty. The current forecast shows 1.5 to inches

across the northern portions of the forecast area, with some locally

higher amounts possible. Given this current trend, no Flood Watch

has been issued at this time, but trends will need to be monitored

with the next few rounds of model guidance as we get closer to the

event. WPC continues to maintain a Slight Risk (2 of 4) in the Day 2

Excessive Rainfall Outlook. Showers will begin to taper off towards

Saturday evening. Temperatures during this time remain on the cooler

side, with highs generally in the 70s. Overnight lows will be on the

milder side with cloud cover and precipitation, generally in the

upper 50s to mid 60s.



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...Sunday will see things dry out as the

trough moves out of the area bringing the return of warmer weather

as temperatures push back into the upper 70s and low 80s. There will

still be some potential concerns with runoff from higher terrain

heightening the chances for some flooding in the lower valleys

during the day.



Ridging moves in on Monday, bringing partly cloudy skies and another

push of heat ahead of a warm front. Valleys will push into the upper

80s with some spots reaching 90. While we will have mid level

ridging, there is still slight chances for some isolated convection

in the afternoon across the region Tuesday will be more unsettled as

a cold front moves into the region. Timing still remains up in air,

but there are chances for more widespread convection during the day

Tuesday.



The mid-week also remains unsettled as an upper low stalls to our

north, bringing chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Through 00Z Saturday...Mainly VFR through the period, except for

potential LIFR fog at MPV between 06-12Z Friday. Drier air 

briefly pushing southward into VT and nrn NY from srn Quebec is 

resulting in diminishing mid-upper level cloud cover. Skies 

trend FEW-SCT200-250 for most of the overnight period, especially

across the northern TAF sites. This will lead to localized fog,

with best chance at MPV, where 1SM BR is currently included in 

the TAF for the pre- dawn hours. Otherwise, will be looking at 

light north winds becoming light and variable overnight. For the

daylight hours on Friday, winds becoming SE at 10-12kt, locally

a bit higher at PBG/BTV with gusts 20-22kts expected. Will see 

some late afternoon showers moving in from the west, with a 10% 

chance of a thunderstorm late in the period at KMSS. Included 

just -SHRA for now, with rain commencing around 20Z at KMSS, and

generally between 22-00Z elsewhere. Should remain VFR with 

localized MVFR toward the end of the TAF period with any locally

heavy rain shower activity. 



Outlook...



Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite

SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA,

Slight chance TSRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance

SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.

Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.

Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,

Slight chance TSRA.



&&



.HYDROLOGY...

The latest NWS forecast continues to support the idea of several 

rounds of moderate to locally heavy rainfall will be possible

late Friday into Saturday. With boundary position and movement

at play, the exact placement of heaviest rainfall remains 

somewhat uncertain, with the most recent guidance trending

further north with the heaviest precipitation across southern

Canada. Given near normal streamflows and 0-40cm soil moisture 

profiles, we do have some wiggle room/capacity to handle some of

the runoff. As such, widespread mainstem river flooding is not 

expected at this point with the emphasis more on the flash flood

threat in small streams/watersheds in steep terrain. However, a

few of the smaller rivers may see sharp rises by Saturday. Our 

current precipitation forecast indicates 1.0 to 2.0 inches, 

with localized higher amounts likely across the higher terrain

and northern portions of the forecast area. It needs to be 

stated, a significant variability in rainfall distribution often

occurs during convective events, so exact precip amounts and 

placement are very challenging. Current 3/6 hour flash flood 

guidance of between 2 and 3.5 inches all appears reasonable at 

this time.



&&



.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

VT...None.

NY...None.



&&



$$

SYNOPSIS...Kremer

NEAR TERM...Danzig/Kremer

SHORT TERM...Kremer

LONG TERM...Verasamy

AVIATION...Banacos

HYDROLOGY...NWS BTV

