FGUS73 KFGF 261617

ESFFGF



MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-089-107-111-113-

119-125-135-159-167-NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-

067-071-073-077-081-091-095-097-099-281200-



Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook

National Weather Service Eastern Grand Forks ND

1116 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025





...RED RIVER BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...



         This outlook covers the Red River of the North

         and its Minnesota and North Dakota tributaries.



  Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks use 70 years (1949-2019) of

    past weather, temperature, and precipitation for the ensemble

    predictive hydrographs used in calculating the probabilities of

    exceeding a river level for the valid period of the outlook.



  Outlook Schedule - The National Weather Service in Grand Forks,

    North Dakota provides Long-Range Probabilistic Hydrologic

    Outlooks for the Red River of the North and its Minnesota and

    North Dakota tributaries according to the following schedule:



    - Near the end of the month throughout the year, except for...



    - Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlooks that are issued

       prior to the spring snowmelt season beginning in mid-to-late

        February.



  The following message has three river data sections:



    - The first (Table 1) gives the current and normal/historical

       chances of river locations reaching their minor, moderate,

        and major flood categories.



    - The second (Table 2) gives the current chances of river

       locations rising above the river stages listed.



    - The third (Table 3) gives the current chances of river

       locations falling below the river flows listed.





In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS), or normal,

  probabilities of exceeding minor, moderate, and major flood

  stages are listed for the valid time period.



  - CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category

    based on current conditions.



  - HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category

    based on historical, or normal, conditions.



  - When the value of CS is greater than HS, the probability of

    exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS

    is less than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is

    lower than normal.





...Table 1--Probabilities for Minor, Moderate, and Major Flooding...

               Valid Period:   06/30/2025 - 09/28/2025





                                         : Current and Historical

                                         :  Chances of Exceeding

                                         :    Flood Categories

                                         :   as a Percentage (%)

                         Categorical     :

                      Flood Stages (ft)  :  Minor   Moderate  Major

Location            Minor    Mod   Major :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS

--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---

Red River of the North.....

  Wahpeton            11.0   13.0   15.0 :  30  33   12   9   <5  <5

  Hickson             30.0   34.0   38.0 :   5   5   <5  <5   <5  <5

  Fargo               18.0   25.0   30.0 :  38  46    9   9   <5  <5

  Halstad             26.0   32.0   37.5 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5

  Grand Forks         28.0   40.0   46.0 :  11  14   <5  <5   <5  <5

  Oslo                26.0   30.0   36.0 :  12  21   <5   8   <5  <5

  Drayton             32.0   38.0   42.0 :  <5   5   <5  <5   <5  <5

  Pembina             39.0   44.0   49.0 :  <5   6   <5  <5   <5  <5







                                         : Current and Historical

                                         :  Chances of Exceeding

                                         :    Flood Categories

                                         :   as a Percentage (%)

                         Categorical     :Flood Stages (ft)  :  Minor   Moderate  Major

Location            Minor    Mod   Major :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS

--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---

Minnesota Tributaries.....

  Sabin               13.0   15.0   19.0 :  18  13   <5  <5   <5  <5

  Hawley               8.0    9.0   11.0 :   9   9   <5   6   <5  <5

  Dilworth            13.0   20.0   26.0 :  22  20   <5  <5   <5  <5

  Twin Valley         10.0   12.0   14.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5

  Hendrum             20.0   28.0   32.0 :  11  13   <5  <5   <5  <5

  Shelly              14.0   20.0   23.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5

  Climax              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5

  High Landing        12.0   12.5   13.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5

  Crookston           15.0   20.0   23.0 :   5  14   <5  <5   <5  <5

  Above Warren        67.0   71.0   75.0 :   6   6   <5  <5   <5  <5

  Alvarado           106.0  108.0  110.0 :   7   7    6   6   <5  <5

  Hallock            802.0  806.0  810.0 :  11  16   <5   7   <5  <5

  Roseau              16.0   18.0   19.0 :  <5   7   <5  <5   <5  <5







                                         : Current and Historical

                                         :  Chances of Exceeding

                                         :    Flood Categories

                                         :   as a Percentage (%)

                         Categorical     :

                      Flood Stages (ft)  :  Minor   Moderate  Major

Location            Minor    Mod   Major :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS

--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---

North Dakota Tributaries.....

  Abercrombie         20.0   22.0   28.0 :   7   9    6   6   <5  <5

  Valley City         15.0   16.0   17.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5

  Lisbon              15.0   17.0   19.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5

  Kindred             16.0   19.0   20.5 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5

  West Fargo Dvsn     18.0   20.0   21.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5

  Harwood             84.0   86.0   91.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5

  Enderlin             9.5   12.0   14.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5

  Mapleton            18.0   21.0   23.0 :   7   6   <5  <5   <5  <5

  Hillsboro           10.0   13.0   16.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5

  Minto                6.0    8.0   11.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5

  Walhalla            11.0   16.0   18.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5

  Neche               18.0   19.0   20.5 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5



LEGEND:

    CS  =  Conditional Simulation (current outlook)

    HS  =  Historical  Simulation

    ft  =  Feet





In Table 2 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the

  probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (ft) for the

    valid time period at the locations listed.





      ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations

               Valid Period:   06/30/2025 - 09/28/2025





LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%

--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

Red River of the North.....

  Wahpeton             7.9    7.9    8.1    9.5   11.4   13.4   14.1

  Hickson             14.3   14.3   14.6   16.8   21.7   27.1   30.0

  Fargo               16.3   16.3   16.4   17.2   19.7   24.1   27.5

  Halstad             10.3   10.3   10.3   11.2   14.6   20.7   25.0

  Grand Forks         18.4   18.4   18.4   18.9   21.4   28.0   29.7

  Oslo                13.8   13.8   13.8   14.2   18.7   27.7   29.9

  Drayton             15.8   15.8   15.8   15.8   19.4   25.4   29.0

  Pembina             20.0   20.0   20.0   20.0   26.3   31.8   36.0





Minnesota Tribs:      95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%

--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

South Fork Buffalo River.....

  Sabin                5.9    5.97.0    9.9   12.5   13.8   14.5

Buffalo River.....

  Hawley               3.9    3.9    4.2    5.1    5.7    7.4    8.4

  Dilworth             4.7    4.7    5.2    8.5   12.6   16.9   18.7

Wild Rice River.....

  Twin Valley          2.8    2.8    2.8    3.8    4.8    5.7    8.1

  Hendrum              6.0    6.0    6.0   10.2   15.6   20.4   23.0

Marsh River.....

  Shelly               4.8    4.8    4.8    4.8    7.8   11.3   13.1

Sand Hill River.....

  Climax               5.1    5.3    5.8    7.2    9.0   11.5   13.6

Red Lake River.....

  High Landing         0.9    1.3    1.7    2.6    4.2    6.9    9.0

  Crookston            3.6    4.8    6.1    8.0   11.0   13.7   15.1

Snake River.....

  Above Warren        61.1   61.1   61.5   62.2   63.1   64.2   69.1

  Alvarado            96.3   96.3   97.0   98.2  100.1  103.4  108.8

Two Rivers River.....

  Hallock            793.9  794.3  795.7  797.1  799.3  802.3  804.5

Roseau River.....

  Roseau               5.6    5.6    5.9    6.7    8.2   11.0   15.2





North Dakota Tribs:   95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%

--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

Wild Rice River.....

  Abercrombie         11.2   11.2   11.2   11.9   14.2   18.2   23.3

Sheyenne River.....

  Valley City          5.2    5.2    5.2    5.5    7.0    9.2   11.5

  Lisbon               4.8    4.8    4.8    4.8    6.3    8.9   11.5

  Kindred              7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1    7.5   11.5   14.0

  West Fargo Dvsn     10.8   10.8   10.8   10.8   10.8   12.8   13.9

  Harwood             73.7   73.7   73.7   73.7   74.7   78.1   82.2

Maple River.....

  Enderlin             2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2    5.6    7.5    9.2

  Mapleton             9.5    9.5    9.5    9.5   12.2   16.9   19.8

Goose River.....

  Hillsboro            1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    3.3    4.4    8.8

Forest River.....

  Minto                1.4    1.4    1.4    1.7    2.1    3.6    4.7

Pembina River.....

  Walhalla             1.5    1.5    1.7    2.6    3.9    5.2    6.4

  Neche                2.6    2.6    2.9    4.3    6.7    9.3   12.9





In Table 3 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the

  probability of falling below the listed flow levels (kcfs) for

   the valid time period at the locations listed.



       ...Table 3--Non-Exceedance Probabilities...

Chance of Falling Below Flow (kcfs) at Specific Locations



               Valid Period:   06/30/2025 - 09/28/2025





LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%

--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

Red River of the North.....

  Wahpeton             0.8    0.6    0.4    0.4    0.3    0.2    0.2

  Hickson              0.8    0.6    0.5    0.4    0.3    0.2    0.2

  Fargo                0.9    0.7    0.5    0.4    0.4    0.3    0.2

  Halstad              1.4    1.2    0.9    0.7    0.7    0.5    0.5

  Grand Forks          1.9    1.6    1.2    1.0    0.8    0.7    0.6

  Oslo                 2.2    1.7    1.3    1.0    0.8    0.7    0.6

  Drayton              2.5    1.8    1.3    1.1    0.9    0.7    0.6

  Pembina              2.6    2.1    1.5    1.2    1.0    0.7    0.7





Minnesota Tribs:      95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%

--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

South Fork Buffalo River.....

  Sabin                0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0

Buffalo River.....

  Hawley               0.1    0.1    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0

  Dilworth             0.1    0.1    0.1    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0

Wild Rice River.....

  Twin Valley          0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1

  Hendrum              0.2    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1

Marsh River.....

  Shelly               0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0

Sand Hill River.....

  Climax0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0

Red Lake River.....

  High Landing         0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0

  Crookston            0.2    0.2    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1

Snake River.....

  Above Warren         0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0

  Alvarado             0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0

Two Rivers River.....

  Hallock              0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0

Roseau River.....

  Roseau               0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0





North Dakota Tribs:   95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%

--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

Wild Rice River.....

  Abercrombie          0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0

Sheyenne River.....

  Valley City          0.1    0.1    0.1    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0

  Lisbon               0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.0

  Kindred              0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1

  West Fargo Dvsn      0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1

  Harwood              0.2    0.2    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1

Maple River.....

  Enderlin             0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0

  Mapleton             0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0

Goose River.....

  Hillsboro            0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0

Forest River.....

  Minto                0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0

Pembina River.....

  Walhalla             0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0

  Neche                0.1    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0







.THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...



This long-range probabilistic outlook is based on a series of peak

 river levels taken from the forecast hydrograph results of the NWS

 Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS). The model is run for

 multiple scenarios starting at current river, snow, and soil

 conditions using 70 years of past precipitation and temperatures

 that were experienced for those past years during the timeframe of

 the outlook period. The crests are then ranked from lowest to

 highest and assigned an exceedance probability.



 A YouTube video on "How to Interpret River Outlook Products" can

  be found at:



         www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSoEgvsnpv4



These probabilities can be used for risk management as an indication

 of the range of crests that may be possible during the valid period

 of the outlook. However, note that it is possible that river levels

 may still reach levels below the 95th percentile, or above the 5th

 percentile, values.





.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...



Exceedance information is also presented as graphs of the

 probability of stage exceedance for the full period and for weekly

 intervals throughout the period. These graphs, together with

 explanations that help in interpreting them, can be found on the

 NWS Grand Forks NWPS web page by clicking on "Rivers and Lakes"

 above the map at www.weather.gov/fgf.



Current river levels across the Red River of the North and

 Devils/Stump Lake basins are available on our web site.

 Additionally, 7-day deterministic forecasts are issued at least

 once a day when river forecast locations are expected to reach or

 exceed their designated action stage throughout that period.



Refer to the separate Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook for Devils

 and Stump Lakes probability of exceedance levels and/or

 low-water non-exceedance levels.



If you have any questions, please contact NWS Grand Forks at

 701-772-0720.



You can follow us on Facebook at www.facebook.com/NWSGrandForks

 and on X at @NWSGrandForks.



$$

     www.weather.gov/fgf

NNNN







