FXUS61 KAKQ 261349

AFDAKQ



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Wakefield VA

949 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

A large ridge remains across the Eastern CONUS, bringing very hot 

conditions to the region through the week. Low-end chances for 

afternoon showers and thunderstorms make a return through the 

weekend into early next week.



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

As of 950 AM EDT Thursday...



- Heat Advisories in effect for the entire forecast area today.



- Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop today, with more 

  coverage than previous days. A few storms could be strong to 

  severe.



The upper ridge that has been plaguing the area with an oppressive 

heat wave the past few days will finally start to weaken today. As 

this gradual weakening occurs, one last day of heat indices between 

105-108 degrees is expected today, requiring a Heat Advisory for a 

majority of the forecast area. The Heat Advisory has been expanded 

to include the Eastern Shore (except the MD Beaches) as 

confidence increased that the area would reach criteria. While 

not quite as hot, temperatures are still expected to reach the 

mid 90s which remains well above normal for this time of year. 

One possible saving grace from the heat today will be increased 

cloud cover in the afternoon as scattered convection tries to 

develop. Storms will be similar in nature to what we saw 

yesterday, which is slow moving with damaging winds possible. A 

backdoor cold front well to our north will sag southward today 

and move closer to the northern extent of our forecast area. 

This boundary will provide more of a lifting mechanism for storm

development, so higher storm coverage is expected today. Due to

the strong surface heating expected, DCAPE values will be be 

between roughly 1000-1600 J/kg which could produce a few strong 

isolated downbursts within any convection that does develop this

afternoon and evening. As these storms decay, they will shoot 

out outflows, which will act as an additional trigger for 

convective development. SPC has a majority of the forecast area 

in a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe weather today, with 

damaging wind gusts the main threat and isolated large hail 

possible. The steering flow for these storms will be light which

will likely allow for slow storm motions, so isolated instances

of locally heavy rainfall are possible. WPC has placed all but 

SE VA and NE NC in a Marginal ERO to account for the possibility

of isolated flash- flooding. 



As daytime heating wanes this evening, convection will follow suit, 

though a few stronger storms after sunset cannot be ruled out. 

Temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 70s overnight.



&&



.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

As of 347 AM EDT Thursday... 



Key Messages:



- Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected Friday afternoon.

  A few storms could be strong to severe.



- Backdoor cold front to bring some relief from the heat to the

  NE counties and MD Eastern Shore counties.



The backdoor cold front will continue to drop southwards through 

Friday, finally settling across the MD Eastern Shore counties and 

our northeast VA counties. While most of the forecast area will 

still experience temperatures in the lower 90s, the front will bring 

some relief to our NE counties and temperatures will be in the low 

to mid 80s. Dew points will subtly drop as well, leading to slightly 

less humid conditions in these areas. Heat indices will likely fall 

within in the 95-103F range, so a Heat Advisory may not be needed 

Friday. With the boundary lingering through Friday afternoon, this 

will once again provide a subtle lifting mechanism for storm 

development and afternoon/evening scattered thunderstorms will be 

possible. Some storms may once again be strong to severe, so SPC hasmost of the area in a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather on 

Friday, with damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail remaining 

the main threat. There also remains a threat for isolated instances 

of flash flooding, so WPC has placed a majority of the forecast area 

in a Marginal ERO on Friday. By Saturday, the front will start to 

lift back to the north, so while afternoon/evening thunderstorms are 

still possible, they will not be as high in coverage as Friday. With 

the upper ridge still across the region, above normal temperatures 

are expected again on Saturday with highs in the lower to mid 90s. 

Heat indices will range between 97-104F, though some areas could see 

a brief period of 105F+ heat indices.



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday... 



Key Messages:



- Hot weather continues into early next week.



- An unsettled pattern develops with daily, diurnal chances for 

  scattered storms.



The weakened upper ridge will remain across the area Sunday into 

early next week, leading to the continuation of above normal 

temperatures. While temperatures will not be quite as high as what 

we saw this past week, highs will still reach the low to mid 90s 

Sunday through Tuesday, with heat indices between 98-103F. We will 

continue to monitor any trends in the heat, as subtle differences in 

the temperatures and dew points could lead to some areas reaching 

Heat Advisory criteria. A cold front will approach the region on 

Tuesday, with moisture pooling ahead of it and PWs approaching 2.0"+ 

later this weekend into early next week which may result in a heavy 

rain threat. The unsettled weather pattern will continue, with 

isolated to scattered convection each afternoon and evening Sunday 

through Tuesday. The aforementioned front is progged to move through 

Tuesday into Wednesday, though it looks like it might linger across 

NE NC through Thursday, bringing higher rain chances to the southern 

half of the forecast area on Wednesday and Thursday. Confidence in 

the exact placement of the front is low as it is well into the 

extended forecast, so we will continue to fine tune our forecast as 

this becomes more clear.



&&



.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

As of 647 AM EDT Thursday...



VFR conditions prevail through a majority of the 12z TAF period

outside of convection. Generally clear skies this morning 

outside of FEW to SCT higher clouds. SCT CU (5000-6000 ft CIGs) 

are expected to develop this afternoon with scattered storms 

again developing across the region. Have maintained a PROB30 at

the RIC and SBY TAFs due to higher confidence in storms 

impacting those terminals. Any storms taper off later in the 

evening. IFR CIGs potentially move into SBY after ~03z Friday 

as a backdoor cold front tries to settle south into the area.



Outlook: IFR CIGs potentially develop across northern portions

of the area late tonight into Friday morning as a backdoor cold

front drops into the area. VFR conditions are then primarily 

expected later Friday into next week as the front lifts back

north. However, late afternoon/evening storms are possible 

every day into early next week.



&&



.MARINE...

As of 245 AM EDT Thursday...



Key Messages:



- Benign marine conditions continue through the remainder of the 

week and into the weekend.

 

Favorable marine conditions will continue through the weekend as 

high pressure remains dominant across the region. The wind direction 

will be influenced by the sea breeze during the day as the land 

heats up, then will become generally variable overnight. As the high 

shifts offshore through the end of the week and into the weekend, 

the synoptic winds become predominantly southerly areawide. Sea 

breezes may still make an appearance near the shore in the afternoon 

hours, which would shift the wind to the E or SE. A few wind gusts 

to 20-25 kt are possible by the weekend or early next week, but 

predictability is low at this range given the effects of potential 

convection. Isolated to scattered storms are also possible in the 

afternoons and evenings today through the weekend, which could bring 

strong wind gusts to the waters, with winds and seas higher within 

any convection.



Seas in the Ocean remain around 2 ft for the week, increasing to 2-3 

ft by Friday. Waves in the Bay and rivers of 1-2 ft or less 

through the period.



&&



.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MD...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>024.

NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-

     030>032-102.

VA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060>062-

     064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...AJB/RMM

NEAR TERM...AC/NB

SHORT TERM...NB

LONG TERM...NB

AVIATION...AJB/NB

MARINE...AJB/SW

