FXUS62 KFFC 262012

AFDFFC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Peachtree City GA

412 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025





...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...



.SHORT TERM...

(This evening through Friday)

Issued at 410 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Key Messages:



    - Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and 

      thunderstorms will be the primary concern. 



    - Temperatures will be near or slightly above seasonal averages.





Current radar loop shows some isolated thunderstorms moving into 

NW GA. The afternoon convection has taken a bit longer today to 

get started because the area was so worked over from yesterdays 

activity but, ample instability is again developing. Seeing MLCAPE

values on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg across the region with ML 

Lapse Rates around 6 to 6.5. While things are not as unstable as 

yesterday, there will still be sufficient support for at least a 

few severe thunderstorms with a primary risk for strong downburst 

wind gusts as well as a few instances of hail up to size of dime 

to quarter size. For this reason, SPC has upgraded portions of the

area including the ATL metro area into a Slight Risk (level 2 of 

5 risk) with the rest of the area still under a Marginal Risk 

(Level 1 or 5). Storms could persist into the late evening.



On Friday, little change in the overall pattern and environment is 

expected. With the area remaining in southwest flow around the 

periphery of the western Atlantic high, diurnally driven

convection is again expected. Also, strong to severe isolated  

thunderstorms will again be possible with an attendant strong 

downburst wind potential.



As for temperatures, forecast highs Friday should be a couple of 

degrees below Todays highs for most of the area. It will still be

hot with heat index values peaking in the 95 to 100 range for

North and Central GA.



01



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)

Issued at 410 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Key Messages:



  - Very moist forecast, with diurnally driven convection every day.



  - Severe not anticipated at this time, but some uncertainty.



Forecast:



Long term forecast is looking quite moist thanks to a series of 

passing systems to the north and yet another TUTT breaking off in 

the Atlantic into a closed low and retrograding towards the CWA. 

PWATs over the long term period hover above average for this time of 

year, which is saying something in late June, and the forecast 

surface dewpoints reflect it with daily Tds reaching into 70s across 

the entire CWA. Ensembles are pretty consistent with the rainfall - 

some differences arise towards the end of the long term period where 

the GFS and some of its members are a bit more aggressive in 

developing a surface low along the gulf that pushes yet another wave 

of moisture into the CWA by midweek of next week that may lead to 

even greater rainfall amounts ahead of an approaching frontal system 

that is driven towards the area. Currently, most of this rainfall 

looks to be diurnally driven, meaning greatest chances of rain and 

storms will be in the afternoon to evening hours. Repeated rounds of 

daily rainfall may lead to some flash flooding concerns, especially 

in more urban areas, though hard to pinpoint any potential locations 

to be concerned about this far in advance.



Severe chances are looking low over the time period at this time, or 

at least no more than your typical summer day with afternoon storms. 

Our upper level lapse rates return to normal, and within most of the 

guidance the retrograding upper level low doesn't quite make it over 

the CWA before it begins to fill. However, this upper low does 

represent a bit of uncertainty - if it were to move over the CWA, it 

could bring in some better lapse rates as cooler air moves in aloft 

that could create better instability and potential for severe 

storms. Will need to keep an eye on this going forward, but current 

ensemble consensus is to keep this feature offshore.



Lusk



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 136 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



VFR conditions across the area but looking for convection to get 

going in the next few hours. Should see another round of SHRA/TSRA

this afternoon and evening with the best chance for the TAF sites

happening around sunset (give or take an hour or two). Winds 

should stay mainly out of the W-NW in the 5-10kt range but will 

see some gusty winds to 30kt in and around any convective 

activity. VSBYs expected to stay in the VFR range but like the 

winds could see some MVFR VSBYs in and around the thunderstorms. 



//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Confidence medium to high on all elements.



01



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Athens          70  92  70  90 /  30  60  40  60 

Atlanta         72  91  71  90 /  40  60  40  50 

Blairsville     64  88  65  86 /  30  70  40  70 

Cartersville    69  92  70  90 /  40  60  40  60 

Columbus        72  92  71  91 /  30  50  40  60 

Gainesville     70  91  71  89 /  40  60  40  60 

Macon           71  92  71  91 /  20  60  40  60 

Rome            69  91  71  89 /  40  60  30  60 

Peachtree City  69  91  69  90 /  30  60  40  50 

Vidalia         72  93  71  91 /  20  50  40  60 



&&



.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ001>005-011-012-

019-020-030.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...01

LONG TERM....Lusk

AVIATION...01

