ACUS11 KWNS 262309

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 262309 

NDZ000-MTZ000-270045-



Mesoscale Discussion 1465

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0609 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Areas affected...portions of eastern Montana into far northwestern

North Dakota



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 262309Z - 270045Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe wind and/or hail may

accompany the stronger, longer-lived storms. However, the overall

severe threat should remain isolated.



DISCUSSION...Scattered strong thunderstorms have been increasing

over the last couple of hours, particularly over southern MT. Across

the northern High Plains, strong surface heating has supported upper

80s to 90 F surface temperatures, and with 9 C/km low and mid-level

lapse rates in place, over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE has become commonplace.

Nonetheless, deep-layer flow and subsequent shear remains modest,

especially where richer low-level moisture and resultant instability

are in place. Therefore, multicells and transient supercells will

continue to percolate in intensity over the next few hours. Severe

wind and hail are possible, but should occur on a more intermittent

and isolated basis.



..Squitieri/Guyer.. 06/26/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...



LAT...LON   46370890 47150683 48470565 49010519 49050449 49040347

            48900324 48520324 47690374 46640529 45730766 45670816

            45710855 46370890 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN



