FXUS62 KMHX 261401

AFDMHX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC

1001 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will remain in control through the next several

days. Dangerous heat will continue today along with the chance 

for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Typical 

summertime pattern returns late week and this weekend. The next 

frontal system approaches the east coast mid next week.



&&



.NEAR TERM /TODAY/... 

As of 1000 AM Thu...



Key Messages



 - Hot and humid again today, with heat index values peaking at

   105-110 degrees

 - Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible this

   afternoon and early evening



Morning update: Forecast remains on track for today. Dewpoints

this morning coming in a little big under guidance so have

decreased those over the next few hours which will keep heat

indices lower this morning but still expect heat advisory

criteria by this afternoon. Previous discussion follows.



Previous discussion: Latest analysis shows high pressure 

offshore, sfc troughing over the Piedmont and weak boundary 

draped through the Mid- Atlantic...while upper ridge begins to 

weaken aloft. A Heat Advisory continues for the area as temps 

will climb back into the 90s and combine with dewpoints in the 

70s, with heat index values peaking at 105-110 deg this 

afternoon. Expect the first part of the day to remain dry with 

widely scattered showers and thunderstorms developing this 

afternoon and early evening. Despite the strong instability (ML 

CAPEs 2-4000 J/kg), the lack of significant upper support and 

shear (less than 15 kt) should keep coverage iso to widely 

scattered with little threat for organized convection. The 

seabreeze, remnant outflows and differential heating boundaries 

will likely provide the focus for initiation. Pulse type tstms 

will be possible, with potential for an isolated svr storm with 

damaging wind gusts, best chances along and west of Hwy 17.



&&



.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... 

As of 235 AM Thu...Expect any lingering convection to wane with

loss of heating as boundary layer stabilizes. Little change to 

overall pattern overnight with high pressure offshore, troughing

to the west and weak boundary draped through central VA and 

southern MD. Lows a few deg above climo - low/mid 70s inland and

mid/upper 70s for the beaches.



&&



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

As of 3 AM Thursday...



Key Messages



 - Hot conditions continue through the long term, with heat 

   indices 100-105F every afternoon (90-100F along the coast)



Low level heights retreat slightly the rest of the week as the

upper level ridge weakens, and highs drop to the low to mid 

90s, with heat indices 100-105F likely. The cumulative effect of

several days with high heat indices (and little relief at 

night) is something for those working or spending much time 

outside to consider this week as they make preparations for the 

heat.



As ridge continues to weaken, trough over central NC and sea

breeze will be two areas to watch for thunderstorm development

each day. Lack of shear paired with ample instability favors

pulse thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. Lack of upper level

support keeps PoPs in the slight chance range through Tuesday, 

as coverage of storms will be isolated to scattered. Next week, 

a frontal system will approach the eastern seaboard, with the

best upper level forcing well to our north. While it is still 

uncertain if the frontal system will stall to our west or blow 

through the region, PoPs do trend upwards mid- week.



&&



.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SHORT TERM /through tonight/... 

As of 630 AM Thu...



Key Messages

 - Patchy MVFR fog possible early this morning

 - TSRA and sub-VFR conditions possible this afternoon.

 

Patchy to areas offog and/or stratus, will be possible through

12z, esp in areas that saw heavier rainfall yesterday 

afternoon/evening. With ISO and OAJ likely having better chances

of seeing reduced vsbys, and perhaps cigs. Any fog or stratus 

should dissipate by mid morning. Hot and unstable conditions 

will develop again this afternoon and widely scattered 

thunderstorms could bring periods of sub-VFR conditions during 

the mid to late afternoon hours. Patchy fog will be possible

again overnight and early Fri morning. 



LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... 

As of 3 AM Thursday...High pressure overhead helps keep winds 

light to calm, and when paired with moist low levels, sub-VFR 

level patchy fog will be possible each morning.



&&



.MARINE...

SHORT TERM /through tonight/... 

As of 630 AM Thu...Pleasant boating conditions will continue 

through tonight with high pressure in control. Latest obs show 

light and variable winds, generally 10 kt or less with seas 1-2 

ft. Winds will become S-SW 10-15 kt this afternoon with seas 

building to 2-3 ft tonight. 



LONG TERM /Friday though Monday/... 

As of 3 AM Thursday...Fantastic boating conditions are expected

through the weekend as a ridge of high pressure lingers over 

the region. The pressure gradient will remain quite weak, which 

will allow sea/sound breezes to play a big part in wind strength

and direction. Light and variable winds below 10 kts are 

expected each morning, with winds increasing each afternoon and 

evening to S/SW 10-20 kts in response to a developing sea 

breeze for inland sounds/rivers and slightly pinched gradient

for coastal waters. Seas will be mostly 2-3 ft through the 

weekend, with 4 footers along the Gulf Stream Sunday and Monday.



&&



.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047-

     079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...MHX

NEAR TERM...RTE/CQD

SHORT TERM...CQD

LONG TERM...RJ

AVIATION...CQD/RJ

MARINE...CQD/RJ

