FXUS62 KMLB 261845

AFDMLB



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Melbourne FL

245 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



- An active weather pattern persists over the next several days, 

  with a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather on Friday.



- Heat continues to be a concern over the next few days, as peak

  heat indices reach 100 to 105. Proper precautions should be

  taken to prevent heat-related illnesses. Look before you lock!



- Moderate risk of rip currents continues at area beaches through

  the weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Current-Tonight...Coverage of showers and storms has increased

this afternoon as the east coast sea breeze has moved inland, with

recorded wind gusts of up to 45 mph out of some storms. Still

anticipating building coverage across the interior through the

remainder of this afternoon, though confidence in seeing severe

storms has decreased. Still cannot rule out lightning strikes,

wind gusts to 50 mph, small hail, and brief heavy downpours. Lake

County continues to be highlighted in a Marginal Risk (1/5) for

severe weather, but as mentioned, confidence in realizing severe

storms remains low. Activity is forecast to diminish along the 

coast after 5 PM, and across the interior after 8 PM. Beyond 8 

PM, mostly dry conditions are forecast for east central Florida. 

Ongoing shower and storm activity cannot be ruled out across the 

local Atlantic waters, and some of this may move onshore along the

Treasure Coast overnight. Light south to southwest winds are 

forecast to develop overnight as the ridge axis drapes across the 

area and even shifts slightly south of the area. Overnight lows 

remain near normal in the low to mid 70s.



Friday-Sunday...The mid-level low shifts northward towards the 

southeastern U.S. on Friday, becoming more of a trough into the 

weekend. At the surface, the Atlantic high is forecast to remain 

over the waters, with the ridge axis slowly drifting southward 

and extending across central Florida through the weekend. The 

result is prevailing south to southwest flow at the surface, 

helping to advect moisture northward and keeping PWATs in the 1.8

to 2.0" range. As the east coast sea breeze develops each 

afternoon and moves inland, shower and storm coverage is forecast 

to increase. Have kept PoPs 50 to 70 percent through the end of 

the work week and into the weekend, with ongoing activity possible

across the offshore waters during the overnight hours.



Storms will continue to be possible across east central Florida

each day, with up to a 50 percent chance of development. Steering

flow becomes more southwesterly over the next few days, leading to

greater chances for the sea breeze collision to occur across the

central and eastern portions of the peninsula. Based on modeled 

soundings, steep low level lapse rates are anticipated to 

continue, which would help support storm development. However, 

modest SBCAPE and DCAPE values are forecast, with 500mb 

temperatures warming to around -8C, which may limit development

slightly. Overall, the main storm threats continue to be lightning

strikes, gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours. Friday, 

the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted all of east central 

Florida in a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather, with a 5 

percent chance for wind gusts reaching 60 mph. 



Temperatures are forecast to continue climbing into the low 90s 

Friday and Saturday, falling slightly into the upper 80s to low 

90s on Sunday. Peak heat indices reaching 100 to 105 remains 

possible, though confidence in this on Sunday is lower. Lows 

remain in the low to mid 70s through the weekend.



Monday-Independence Day (previous modified)...Mid to upper level low 

pressure moves into the area once again next week, as the surface 

Atlantic ridge axis slowly drifts southward across the peninsula. 

Thus, deep moisture looks to linger into Independence Day. Combined 

with an increasing southwesterly flow and support aloft, this would 

lead to high shower and storm coverage and afternoon sea breeze 

collisions over the eastern half of the peninsula through the week, 

should this forecast hold. For now, have kept PoPs 50-70% through 

the extended due to uncertainty at this time scale. Temperatures 

remain near to slightly above normal in the lower 90s. However, 

increasing humidity will see heat indices creep up each day, 

reaching 100-105 degrees. A return of widespread Moderate HeatRisk 

also looks possible mid-week, meaning sensitive groups and those not 

acclimated to the Florida heat will be more susceptible to heat 

stress.



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



An active weather pattern is forecast to continue across the local

Atlantic waters over the next several days. While the Atlantic

high is forecast to stay situated across the local waters, a moist

airmass will also remain in place, allowing for continued shower 

and storm development. Any storms that develop may produce 

lightning strikes, gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours.

Activity is also anticipated to continue developing during the

overnight hours, especially across the offshore waters.



Outside of convection, the aforementioned Atlantic high will help

keep boating conditions relatively favorable. South to southwest

winds remain below 15 knots through the period, occasionally

becoming more southeasterly closer to the coast each afternoon as 

the sea breeze develops and moves onshore. Seas generally 1 to 3 

feet.



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFs)

Issued at 120 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Increasing moisture and disturbance aloft combined with ECSB 

moving well inland during the afternoon/evening; with SCT-NMRS 

convection forecast though CAMs remain unimpressive with PoP 

chances. Ongoing convection across the Space/Treasure coasts with

activity beginning to pop up over the interior. Continue VCTS 

with TEMPO groups as necessary for coastal TAF sites. Have VCTS at

interior TAF sites with TEMPO groups well inland 18Z-22Z period. 

It appears most convection expected to diminish or push west of 

the inland sites by around 23Z. There could be some periodic 

onshore-moving SHRA until after 06Z for coastal TAF sites, and 

afterwards the storm steering flow becomes SSW/SW.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

DAB  73  90  74  91 /  20  60  40  70 

MCO  74  93  75  93 /  20  70  40  70 

MLB  74  90  75  91 /  30  70  40  70 

VRB  72  91  72  91 /  40  60  40  70 

LEE  74  91  75  91 /  20  70  30  70 

SFB  74  93  75  93 /  20  70  40  70 

ORL  74  93  77  93 /  20  70  40  70 

FPR  70  90  71  91 /  40  60  40  70 



&&



.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.

AM...None.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Tollefsen

AVIATION...Sedlock

