FXUS63 KMPX 261910

AFDMPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

210 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Another round of rain today may be heavy at times, but the overall 

flooding threat is less than it was Wednesday. 



- A threat of severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes, exists 

across mostly southeastern Minnesota this afternoon.



- Another round of strong to severe storms possible Saturday

  night into Sunday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Forecast in the short-term calls for similar conditions as to 

what we saw yesterday. Although this time, the QPF maxima has 

shifted eastward into southeastern MN and western WI. That being

said, radar reflectivity still showing a wide swath of rainfall

across MN this afternoon. Rainfall rates appear less intense as

observations range between a tenth to a few tenths of an inch 

since 12z. However, we are monitoring two systems today. The 

first is a discrete MCV that has made its way across the MN/IA 

border that is produce heavy rainfall in southern MN. The second

is the main low of pressure circulating around SE'rn SD, 

northern NE. 



A warm frontal boundary extending from the low shows up well on 

satellite currently as clearer skies creep into southeastern MN and 

south/central WI. This is the primary area of concern as we head 

into the afternoon/evening as the SPC has issued another slight

risk for severe weather for these regions. Although seeing the 

current location of the aforementioned MCV in relation to this 

frontal boundary will likely confine most severe weather chances

east of a line from Freeborn, up to Goodhue, over to Eau Claire

Counties. The primary threat once again will be tornadoes as 

sfc to 6km shear on forecast soundings showing 30-40kts and 

MuCAPE values exceeding 1500 J/kg. Heavy rain and damaging wind 

gusts will also be a threat this evening. A tornado watch is in 

effect until 8 PM tonight. 



Additional rainfall today looks to exceed an inch however areas in 

southern MN could receive closer to two additional inches 

depending on where the strongest convection sets up. With that 

said, another Flood Watch was issued earlier this morning across

southern MN through 1 AM Friday. Should QPF trends northward, 

the current Flood Watch area may need to be expanded. Heavy 

rainfall rates between 1 to 2" are possible once again given 

high tropical-like PWATs nearing 2". One thing to note though is

with the lapse of rainfall we saw overnight, this allowed for 

yesterday's rain water to recede. Therefore areas across central

MN that see more rainfall this afternoon, shouldn't expect 

anything beyond ponding in the usual spots. 



Friday continues to look like a beautiful day. Temperatures will 

reach the low to mid 70s with dew points near 60 degrees. The 

"nicer" weather though will be short lived. Saturday, much warmer 

temperatures and humidity return. Heat headlines may not be needed 

but heat indices will near the mid 90s especially across 

southwestern MN. Aside from the hot and humid conditions, 

another Slight (level 2 of 5) risk for thunderstorms is 

forecasted for Saturday. A shortwave is expected to move across

the Dakotas Saturday which will converge on an already unstable

airmass. Impacts are yet to be determined but make sure to make

plans accordingly for a potential for severe thunderstorms. 

Once that passes, things look to quiet down early next week with

highs in the low to mid 80s with dew points mainly in the 60s. 

Active weather returns later in the week. 



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Another unsettled day with IFR/LIFR conditions through the next

several hours with -SHRA/TSRA with continued IFR/LIFR cigs

behind the rain through the overnight hours. Some fog is likely

with winds going light and variable. Low clouds look to hang

around with perhaps a return to low end MVFR by the end of the

period.



KMSP...Heaviest rain is expected over the next few hours, with

some uncertainty in a second round late this afternoon/evening.

Rain is expected to end shortly after 00z, but IFR conditions

will persist. Winds are expected to turn

northerly/northwesterly overnight, but will remain 10kts or

less. As mentioned above, MVFR cigs should return during the

afternoon, but will likely not reach VFR until just beyond the

end of this TAF period.



/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...Mainly VFR. Chc P.M. TSRA/MVFR. Wind S 8-12 kts. 

SUN...MVFR/RA likely, chc TSRA/IFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.



&&



.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for Blue Earth-Faribault-

     Freeborn-Martin-Steele-Waseca.

WI...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Dunleavy

AVIATION...Dye

