FXUS66 KLOX 262114

AFDLOX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 

214 PM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...25/158 PM.



Night and morning low clouds and fog will affect the coasts and 

some valleys, otherwise mostly clear skies are expected across 

the area with gusty onshore winds each afternoon. Temperatures 

will continue to turn a bit warmer tomorrow, with little change 

over the weekend into early next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...26/148 PM.



Overall, 12Z models in good synoptic agreement through the short

term period. At upper levels, the area will remain sandwiched

between high pressure building over the 4 Corners area and an

upper low spinning off Point Conception. Near the surface,

moderate onshore flow will continue.



Forecast-wise for the short term, no significant issues are

expected. Main challenge will be forecasting the extent of the

marine layer stratus. Today through Saturday, H5 heights will

increase slightly which should help make the marine inversion more

shallow. So, inland extent of the stratus should be a bit less

each of the next couple of nights. However by Saturday night, H%

heights will fall slightly as the upper low exerts a bit more

influence. So, inversion will deepen slightly and stratus will

push a bit further inland Saturday night/Sunday morning. Each

afternoon, stratus should dissipate nicely for most areas although

stratus could remain stubborn along the beaches, especially from

Ventura south to Malibu. Other than stratus, skies should remain

mostly clear through the period. 



As for temperatures, afternoon highs will be at the whim of the

marine layer and surface gradients. Overall, most areas should 

see a slight warming trend through Saturday with less marine 

influence, but a bit of cooling on Sunday as marine influence 

increases slightly. Overall, changes from day-to-day will not be 

significant.



As for winds, no significant issues are expected. The moderate

onshore pressure gradients will generate the typical gusty

southwesterly winds across interior sections, but speeds will

remain below advisory levels. Additionally, there will be some

localized Sundowner winds each evening, but again, nothing

expected to be problematic.



.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...26/148 PM.



For the extended, 12Z models continue to exhibit decent synoptic

agreement. On Monday/Tuesday, the upper low offshore of Point

Conception will move inland across Central California. For

Wednesday and Thursday, the low will open up into a trough and the

trough will linger over the area. 



Forecast-wise, the weather pattern should remain rather benign.

Main challenge will continue to be the marine layer stratus. For

Monday/Tuesday, will expect deeper marine inversion (as H5 heights

lower) and more inland extent of night/morning stratus/fog

(pushing into the Santa Clarita Valley). For Wednesday and

Thursday, H5 heights increase slightly which should result in some

shrinking the inversion and less inland extent of stratus/fog.

Other than the stratus, skies are expected to remain mostly clear

through the period.



As for temperatures, minor day-to-day changes can be expected. For

Monday/Tuesday, most areas will exhibit some slight cooling.

However for Wednesday/Thursday, that will reverse with a slight

warming trend across the area. 



With continued moderate onshore pressure gradients, gusty

southwesterly winds can be expected each afternoon/evening across

interior sections. However, speeds should remain below advisory

levels.



&&



.AVIATION...26/1739Z.



At 1706Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1600 ft deep. The top of 

the inversion was at 3500 ft with a temperature of 22 C.



High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD and KWJF).



Moderate confidence in remaining TAF sites. Timing of CIG/VSBY 

restrictions maybe off +/- 2 hours and flight cat minimums by 

one. There is a 30% chance V/LIFR conds do not arrive at KPRB

between 12Z-18Z Fri. There is a 20% chance of LIFR CIGs at KSBA

and KOXR. 



KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions

may be off +/- 2 hours. There is a 10% chance of LIFR CIGs from 

03Z to 12Z Fri. No significant wind issues expected.



KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival and departure of CIGs

may be off +/- 2 hours. There is a 15% chance of LIFR CIGs from

06Z to 15Z Fri.



&&



.MARINE...26/209 PM.



Due to recent observations and trends in forecast guidance, a GALE

Warning has been issued across PZZ670 this evening for wind gusts

up to 35 kt. Elsewhere across the Outer waters, Small Craft 

Advisory (SCA) winds are expected through Thursday night. 



For the inner waters along the Central Coast, SCA winds are 

expected Thursday (today) during the afternoon and evening hours. 

SCA winds are not expected across the Santa Barbara Channel Today.

Although, localized gusts up to 21 kts cannot be ruled out across

the far western portion of the channel.



For the weekend, relatively benign conditions (light winds and 

calm seas) are expected across the coastal waters. 



Night to morning dense fog is possible through the weekend,

especially adjacent to the Central Coast.



&&



.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 AM PDT Friday for zone

      645. (See LAXMWWLOX).

     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 PM PDT this evening

      for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).

     Gale Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to midnight PDT

      tonight for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).

     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Friday for

      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).



&&



$$



PUBLIC...Thompson

AVIATION...Black

MARINE...Black

SYNOPSIS...Lewis



weather.gov/losangeles



Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:

https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

