AXNT20 KNHC 261816

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1815 UTC Thu Jun 26 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1800 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Significant Rainfall in Central America/Western Caribbean: 

The interaction between a couple of tropical waves that are

described below, and abundant tropical moisture over the same 

area will continue to enhance the chances for significant showers 

and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean and across portions 

of Central America through at least Fri. This will increase the 

potential for flash flooding and mudslides, especially in hilly 

terrains. According to the latest model guidance, the heaviest 

rainfall is expected to be near the northeast coast of Nicaragua 

and in northern Honduras. Please refer to the local Weather 

Services in the region for more information.



...TROPICAL WAVES...



A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 30W from 

04N to 15N, moving westward around 15 kt. No significant 

convection is presently occurring with this wave.



A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from

18N46W to 12N45W to 02N45W. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt.

Satellite imagery reveals scattered showers and isolated

thunderstorms within 180 nm either side of the wave from 09N 

to 12N.



A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 80W south of 

17N. It is moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate 

convection is near the northern portion of the wave. Isolated 

showers and thunderstorms are within 60-90 nm of the wave axis

from 09N to 12N.



A far western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 88W and 

south of 20N. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. This wave 

remains under a region of broad anticyclonic flow that is helping

to sustain numerous moderate to strong convection that are between

this wave and the one near 80W. This convection is occurring from

14N to 21N between 80W-86W. Small clusters of scattered moderate 

convection are along and just offshore the coast of Nicaragua, 

with similar convection noted just offshore Costa Rica and northern

Panama. This wave is forecast to merge into a broad cyclonic 

circulation that is over the eastern Pacific Ocean associated to

Invest-EP95.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis passes through the coast of Senegal near

14N17W and continues southwestward to 10N24W and west-southwestward

09N31W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 09N44W. It resumes

west of a tropical wave near 09N46W and continues to 08N57W.

Aside from convection related to the wave that is along a position 

from 18N46W to 12N45W to 02N45W, scattered moderate convection is 

within 180 nm south of the trough between the coast of Africa and 

23W.



...GULF OF AMERICA...



Atlantic high pressure extends westward across the northern Gulf.

A trough is analyzed from near Apalachicola, Florida southward to

25N85W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of

27N between 84W and 91W. Both buoy and scatterometer satellite 

data indicate light to gentle east winds throughout, except for 

east to southeast gentle winds over the far western Gulf. Seas are

in the 2 to 4 ft range.



For the forecast, the high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters

through early next week. Fresh to locally strong northeast 

to east winds will pulse each evening and night north of the 

Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche due to local 

effects induced by a thermal trough. Gentle to moderate east to 

southeast winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere

through early next wee



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Refer to the Special Features section regarding the potential 

for heavy rainfall over portions of the western Caribbean.



The present pressure gradient is sustaining fresh to strong 

trades across the south-central portion of the basin as depicted

in recent scatterometer satellite data passes. Seas with these 

winds are 8 to 11 ft. Mostly fresh trades with seas of 5 to 7 ft 

are elsewhere across the basin east of 85W, except for seas of 6 

to 9 ft in east swell north of 15N. Fresh trades are also in the 

Gulf of Honduras with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Moderate east to 

southeast winds are west of 85W with seas of 3 to 5 ft. 



For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge of high 

pressure in the Atlantic and lower pressure in the southwestern

Caribbean that is associated with the eastern Pacific monsoon 

trough will support fresh to strong trades across most of the 

central and SW Caribbean. Winds are expected to pulse to near- 

gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, with 

moderate to rough seas. Strong winds will develop over the Gulf of

Honduras today and continue through the weekend. Elsewhere, 

moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



High pressure of 1021 mb is analyzed at 27.5N64W while a 1027 is 

analyzed north of the area at 34N30W. A trough extends from near 

29N44W to 22N48W. High pressure covers the area north of about 

20N and east of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong east winds are 

south of 22N between 66W and 73W. Moderate to fresh east winds are 

elsewhere south of 24N, except for fresh northeast winds east of  

40W. Seas are 5 to 6 ft south of 24N east of the Bahamas and to 

3 to 5 ft elsewhere except for lower seas of 3 to 4 ft over 

the northwest part of the area and for seas of 3 ft or less west 

of the Bahamas including the Straits of Florida. 



A mid to upper-level low is located just east of central Florida 

as seen in water vapor imagery. At the surface, a trough extends 

from 29N79W to the near the NW Bahamas. Scattered moderate 

convection is from 25N to 30N between 74W and the coast of

Florida. Farther east, an upper-level low dropping south is noted

near 27N58W. Scattered moderate convection associated with this 

feature exists from 24N to 29N between 54W and 61W. 



For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated 

ridge will prevail across the region through early next week. 

Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail

south of 25N. Fresh to strong east winds will pulse late in the 

afternoon and at night north of Hispaniola through early next 

week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are 

expected elsewhere.



$$

Aguirre

