FXUS63 KARX 261755

AFDARX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service La Crosse WI

1255 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Today, severe thunderstorms possible again this afternoon,

  with a few tornadoes & heavy rain as the primary threats. 

  Please stay weather aware in case watches and warnings are 

  issued for your area.



- This weekend, another round of strong to severe storms possible 

  Saturday night into Sunday.



- Next week, drier conditions are expected across the region.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1246 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



TODAY...the main concern this afternoon into this evening is the 

another round of thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes, 

as well as heavy rain and the potential for flooding. Please stay 

weather aware in case watches and warnings are issued for your area.



An upper level wave was located across the Missouri River Valley, 

with precipitation downstream of the trough axis across the eastern 

Dakotas and Minnesota. Late morning satellite imagery with a RAP 

surface analysis showed a surface low approaching western Iowa, with 

mostly clear skies and easterly winds ahead of it. A warm front was 

becoming better defined near I-90, and this will set the stage for 

another severe weather threat this afternoon. 



By early this afternoon, instability around 2000 to 3000 j/kg will 

be in place south of this warm front, and the aforementioned upper 

level trough be enough lift to develop storms. In addition, the 

veered wind profile along the warm front will be favorable for 

rotating storms. Forecast sounding show nearly 300 m2/s2 of 0-2km 

helicity, along with low cloud bases. The combination of instability 

and wind shear should lead to at least a few storms capable of 

producing tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has lifted the 

severe weather outlook northward, and now the slight risk and 

tornado threat are centered across the local area. In addition to 

the severe threat, heavy rain will also accompany these storms, and 

if storms were to track across the same region, then amounts in 

excess of 3 inches would be possible. A flash flood watch was issued 

for counties along and near I-90. The timing for these storms are 

this afternoon and evening, with storms expected to be east of the 

region by midnight tonight.



TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...Rain will exit the region overnight, but 

forecast soundings show low clouds lingering through Friday morning, 

before clearing out later in the day as weak high pressure builds 

across the region. On Friday night storms will develop over the 

Dakotas, but they should fall part before the reach the tri-state 

area. By Saturday, southerly flow will return across the region, 

with hot and humid conditions expected over the weekend. Additional 

thunderstorm chances are possible Saturday night, and again Sunday 

into Sunday night. The instability and shear profiles would once 

again support strong to severe storms. 



Looking ahead, the current southwest flow of the jet stream will 

transition to zonal flow this weekend, and eventually northwest flow 

next week. That will bring in some drier air, with dewpoints, back 

in the lower 60s. Temperatures will be slightly above the seasonal 

average for early July, with highs in the lower 80s. This pattern 

favors drier weather, but cant completely rule out and 

precipitation, so have generally 10 to 20 percent chances in the 

forecast.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1252 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Low ceilings continue with IFR at KRST while KLSE has scattered

out for the start of the period. A line of thunderstorms has

formed over southern Minnesota and will move through this 

afternoon and evening, with IFR conditions within the heavier 

rain and IFR ceilings on the backside of the rain overnight. 

Light winds will be variable today given the passage of a low 

pressure overhead, mainly from the east north of I-90 and SSW 

to the south during the day and veering to the northwest 

areawide overnight. A non-zero probability of some patchy BR

overnight after the rain exits. Surface winds remain 5-10 knots

so BR should be MVFR to hi-IFR at worst. IFR cigs will improve 

to MVFR after sunrise Friday.



&&



.CLIMATE...

Issued at 415 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Daily Rainfall Records - June 26



La Crosse - 2.77 inches in 2021

June rainfall record is 4.50 inches on June 18, 2011



Rochester - 2.00 inches in 1941

June rainfall record is 4.90 inches on June 28, 2019



&&



.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...Flood Watch through late tonight for WIZ041>044-053>055.

MN...Flood Watch through late tonight for MNZ086>088-094>096.

IA...Flood Watch through late tonight for IAZ008>011.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...JRB

AVIATION...BPH 

CLIMATE...Falkinham

