FXUS63 KFGF 261847

AFDFGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Forks ND

147 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- There is a 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorm chances 

  late Friday afternoon into Saturday.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 136 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Scattered showers continue along and south of the I-94 corridor.

Overall amounts will be light, with most locations seeing up to

a tenth or two of rainfall. This is in part due to dry air near

the surface limiting amount of rain from reaching the ground, as

noted by area surface RH values below 80% except under highest

radar reflectivities, as well as overall weak nature of forcing

and absence of instability.



As this weak wave moves northeast into northern MN, light

showers and sprinkles will pull eastward more into west-central

MN toward north-central MN. Again still very light amounts. No

lightning is expected with this activity.



UPDATE

Issued at 729 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Tweeked sky cover some as a clearer area remains from Grand

Forks to Baudette with sunshine. Mid and high clouds will move

in but slowed it down. In far SE ND radar returns indicate

sprinkles or very light rain showers increasing as they move out

of SD. Did tweek pops some a bit northward to account for very

light rain showers this morning up to Valley City-Fargo.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...Synopsis...



Dry across the forecast area tonight, much drier than what was

forecast 24 hours ago. There is a short wave moving northeast

south central South Dakota and Nebraska northeast into central

MN this afternoon. A new area of rain showers and t-storms will

be with this wave, with the far south getting the far north edge

showers. The heavier rain with this wave does look to fall more

in far southern MN with only light amounts (mostly less than 

0.10) in our south fcst area. Fargo-Bemidji and north dry today 

but rather cloudy, though some sunny breaks at times. There is 

expanding MVFR and IFR cloud deck that will be over much of the 

area this morning into the aftn....will have to see how far 

north the MVFR ceilings get but they may reach most areas except

far north and northeast fcst area. With the cloud cover temps 

today will remain below normal. 



Some clearing tonight, esp north, but with west-southwest flow

at 500 mb likely at least some  mid/high clouds remain.  



Line of thunderstorms is forecast to form from north of Regina

into northeast Montana late today and move into far NW ND and

western Manitoba before likely dissipating.



...Friday and Saturday severe storm chances...



There are differences, sometimes pretty big, in terms of

instability and t-storm development and coverage Friday

aftn/night. Many short term CAM models do keep some light shower

activity remaining in SW Manitoba and NW ND thru the morning

with cloud cover limiting heating. CAMs in particular show this

with NAMnest, HRRR, NSSL CAMs, really backing off sfc and mean

layer CAPE esp in how far north it gets Friday afternoon. HRRR

in particular keeps temps cooler in north central ND into

Manitoba with mid 70s to low 80s and dew pts low 60s vs global

model GFS wants to bring up near 70 dew pts into central ND by

00z. Thus GFS is more unstable with surface CAPE values over

3000 j/kg into SW Manitoba, vs CAMs showing more like 2100 j/kg

into SW Manitoba. Idea thought yesterday of a complex forming 

in SW Manitoba and moving southeast may still play out or it is 

possible the complex forms more in central ND and moves 

southeast more into SD as some CAMs indicate. SPC discussion 

agrees that initially supercell in central ND with 0-6 km shear 

35-40 kts, ample enough, then growth upscale into a complex, but

where that is and 850 mb low level jet seems a bit weaker again

around 30 kts into E ND/WC MN after 06z Sat, so unsure of 

severity at that time. Tornado is possible in central ND but 

more wind or hail threat in E ND, but some CAMS have limited 

that. 



So this means the confidence in how severe weather plays out

late Friday is lower than what it looked like 24 hours. SPC did

remove the sig severe for wind it had 24 years yesterday for

Friday but did keep hatched for hail in south central ND into

north central SD. 2% TOR also in central ND...and some NSSL cams

are slower with east progression Friday aftn of boundary keeping

supercell threat west of DVL. So lower confidence in degree of

severe storms, but threat remains.  



Saturday does appear to have more instability as dew pts will be

higher mid 60s to low-mid 70s with mid 70s focused in E

SD/southwest and west central MN in the aftn. Sfc CAPE in those

areas of higher dew points are very high 4000-5000+ j/kg

centered more in far SE ND into WC MN and south. It would appear

that the weak sfc boundary, wind shift will lay somewhere across

north central, west central MN into northeast SD and that is 

where a bit higher severe risk is located. SPC Day 3 has slight 

risk in those areas which seem reasonable.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 136 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Area of IFR to MVFR ceilings will continue at TAF sites like 

KFAR and KBJI through at least 15Z. There is a medium chance 

for additional IFR to MVFR ceilings at other sites between 

06Z-15Z, in addition to low chance for dense fog at KDVL, KFAR, 

and KGFK. Chose to leave the fog out of TAFs for now given low 

confidence in its occurrence over these areas.



Otherwise, lighter winds under 10kt will prevail, excluding 

KBJI where winds between 10-20kt out of the northeast will 

prevail through 00Z.



&&



.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ND...None.

MN...None.



&&



$$



UPDATE...CJ/Riddle

DISCUSSION...Riddle

AVIATION...CJ

