FXUS61 KRNK 261749

AFDRNK



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Blacksburg VA

149 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...



While high pressure looks to remain over the region, the upper

level ridge has finally relaxed over the eastern conus, which

has reduced the overall subsidence across the area. This will

continue to allow widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms

to develop as an extremely moist and unstable airmass continues

to remain over the region through the middle of next week. This

will keep daily chances of showers and thunderstorms in the

forecast. With the ridge weakening, temperatures will gradually

cool to more seasonal temperatures through the weekend into 

into next week.



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/... 

As of 145 PM EDT Thursday...



Key Messages:



1) Scattered thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening with 

marginal risk for severe and excessive rainfall. 



Surface high pressure sliding off the Northeast coastline on

Friday will lead to light northeasterly flow across area. This

will add some enhanced upslope and convergent surface flow 

across the eastern facing Blue Ridge. An early start of storms

is possible across higher terrain locations given the

aforementioned upslope and convergent flow. This flow pattern

combined with a highly unstable environment characterized by

1800 to 2500 J/Kg of SBCAPE and 1200-1500 J/Kg of DCAPE will

provide support for strong downburst winds and isolated large

hail across the area. With PWATs in the 1.6-1.8 inch range,

there will also be the possibility of localized flash flooding.

Thunderstorm activity should diminish through the late evening

hours across the area as instability starts to wane. Daytime

high temperatures look to be elevated in the low 90s east of the

Blue Ridge, and mid to upper 80s west of the Blue Ridge. While

dewpoints will remain elevated in the low to mid 70s in the

Piedmont, forecast daytime high temperatures have come down

enough that a Heat Advisory is not warranted as Heat index

Values should drop back into the upper 90s to low 100s. 



Lows this morning will drop into the mid 60s west of the Blue 

Ridge, and low 70s east of the Blue Ridge. With plentiful 

moisture expected near the surface across the area from today's 

forecast thunderstorms, areas of fog will develop towards the 

late overnight and early morning hours for much of the area. 





&&



.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

As of 1210 PM EDT Thursday...



Key Message:



1) Hot and humid through the weekend, with daily chances of 

afternoon showers and thunderstorms.



High pressure will slide off the southeast coast while low pressure 

wobbles over the southeastern states this weekend. The combination 

of these two systems will continue to pump warm moist air into the 

region. During peak heating, storms will likely form along and west 

of the Blue Ridge, then drift east over the foothills and Piedmont 

in the evening. Storms should fade by midnight, but a few may linger 

into the early morning hours. The primary threat from these storms 

will be damaging wind gusts. With PWATS ranging from 1.30 to 1.70 

inches and storm motion is weak, local flash flooding is possible. 



High temperatures this weekend will range from the low to mid 80s 

across the mountains to the low to mid 90s across the foothills and 

Piedmont. These temperatures are around 4F to 8F warmer than normal. 

Dew points will also remain warm running between the mid 60s to mid 

70s. The coupling the two will have heat indices values 3F to 7F 

warmer than the actual temperatures.





&&





.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

As of 1210 PM EDT Thursday...



Key Messages:



1) Hot temperatures and daily chances of showers and 

thunderstorms continue.



2) More widespread thunderstorms possible Tuesday with the 

passage of a cold front, which may also bring some relief from 

the heat.



The threat of scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will 

continue Monday. A cold front is expected to slowly track across the 

region Tuesday into Wednesday. This front will bring a higher chance 

for more widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area. This 

front should move into eastern Virginia and central North Carolina 

Tuesday night into Wednesday with slightly cooler drier airmass 

overtaking the area Thursday and Friday.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 

As of 100 PM EDT Thursday...



Mainly VFR condition are expected through the remainder of today 

outside of any thunderstorm activity that may move into the vicinity 

of terminals this afternoon and evening. These thunderstorms may 

produce brief periods of MVFR to LIFR CIGs and VSBYs if impacting a 

terminal, as well as cause erratic wind directions and sudden wind 

speed increases. 



Overnight and towards the early morning hours, MVFR VSBYs and CIGs 

look to develop at BCB, LYH, LWB, and BLF as moisture from today's 

shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to lead to increased 

moisture at the surface and development of areawide ground fog. 

These reduced VSBYs and CIGs look to lift rather quickly around 12 

UTC for all terminals.  



Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms look to develop 

during the late morning and early afternoon on Friday, with storms 

initially developing across higher terrain locations west of the 

Blue Ridge. These storms throughout the afternoon and evening look 

to progress east into the Piedmont. For now only ROA, BCB, BLF, and 

LWB have had VCTS added to their tafs for Friday. Outside of this 

activity, expect VFR conditions to prevail through the end of the 

TAF period once the low stratus and fog lifts in the early morning 

hours. 





EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...



High pressure should maintain VFR conditions into early next

week outside of any storms and late night/early morning fog.



&&



.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

VA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ022-023-

     033>035-043>047-058-059.

NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ004>006-020.

WV...None.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...EB

NEAR TERM...EB

SHORT TERM...RCS

LONG TERM...RCS

AVIATION...EB

