FXUS63 KTOP 261730

AFDTOP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Topeka KS

1230 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A line of storms is expected to develop along a cold front by

  mid to late this afternoon and slowly push southeasterly 

  through the area. Could see a few instances of damaging wind 

  with early storms and as well as hail possibly around quarter 

  size. Heavy rain also looks possible with this setup as storms

  congeal and generally move slowly. 



- Hot and humid through the weekend with temperatures 90s and

  heat index values around 100 before cooling back to the 80s 

  by Monday behind a cold front on Sunday.



- Sunday's cold front should bring more widespread storm chances

  to the area with a stronger push of energy associated with the

  overall system. Have a 60-70% chance for precipitation Sunday

  night into early Monday morning right now.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 311 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



The upper ridge east of the region continues to flatten with the 

western flank seeing subtropical moist air streaming into north into 

the central and northern Plains. A Pacific trough is entering the 

northwestern CONUS at this time which appears to be the primary 

feature of interest for Sunday's storm system. A weak frontal 

boundary is in place from northeastern Nebraska down into western OK 

and the panhandle region of TX at this hour with a broad area of 

precipitation ongoing just west of the forecast area from north-

central KS into central and northeastern Nebraska. 



This front slowly pushes into the area today. A weak capping 

inversion should be in place through the morning and early into the 

afternoon across the area today. With a high PW airmass in place and 

dewpoints around 70 degrees, plenty of moisture will remain in place 

very typical of this time of year. The mean Westerlies reside well 

north of the region leading to a low shear high instability 

environment in place for today. As insulation destabilizes the BL, 

expect any cap to erode this afternoon which should help storms 

develop along the boundary. Most CAMs suggest a mid to late 

afternoon initiation, but this could happen sooner if localized 

updrafts break weaker areas of the cap sooner. With the overall 

instability, would expect that storms develop quickly and with 

little shear in place and generally slow storm motions, any cold 

pool outflows develop subsequent storms and the threat could quickly 

shift to localized flooding concerns despite flash flood guidance 

ranging in the 2-3 inch category. There is a enough uncertainty in 

coverage overall that a flood watch has not been issued but not 

ruling out localized flood concerns mainly due to slow motions and 

possible redevelopment on outflow boundaries as previous storms 

collapse typical of the multi-cellular regime anticipated. Initial 

storms would likely be the damaging wind producers and could produce 

some hail as well. 



With little airmass change behind today's frontal boundary, expect 

hot and humid air to remain in place through the weekend ahead of 

the aforementioned Pacific system. Temperatures through Sunday 

remain in the 90s with heat index values around 100 degrees much of 

that time as well. 



Sunday evening into the overnight period, a more significant Pacific 

frontal system pushes into the region in association with a digging 

upper trough across the northern into central Plains. Expect the 

southern flank of the trough may reach this far south but should 

still realized better overall shear which may increase the organized 

storm threat along a strong frontal boundary. A cooler airmass 

arrives into Monday and the balance of next week is looking to feel 

cooler overall leading into July 4th weekend.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Confidence is low on the exact timing and coverage of 

scattered thunderstorms that will develop this afternoon and 

evening, so have just left a Prob30 group at the main TAF sites. Any 

storms should move east of KTOP/KFOE by mid to late evening though. 

Ceilings remain VFR, with this afternoon's gustier south winds 

weakening this evening.



&&



.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Drake

AVIATION...Reese

