ACUS11 KWNS 262130

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 262129 

MOZ000-KSZ000-262300-



Mesoscale Discussion 1460

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0429 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Areas affected...portions of eastern Kansas into far northwestern

Missouri



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 262129Z - 262300Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorms may pose an occasional

severe gust threat through the remainder of the afternoon.



DISCUSSION...Multiple thunderstorms have matured along a confluence

zone across eastern KS, where MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts 50+

dBZ echoes well exceeding 30 kft. While vertical wind shear is weak,

these storms are developing atop a moist surface airmass,

characterized by 70+ F surface dewpoints. Given a well-mixed

boundary layer, 8 C/km low-level lapse rates are in place, boosting

MLCAPE to 3000 J/kg. As such, the stronger pulse-cellular and

multicellular storms will be capable of producing wet downbursts and

associated strong wind gusts. However, the overall severe threat

should remain isolated.



..Squitieri/Guyer.. 06/26/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...



LAT...LON   37079672 37159695 37309699 37559694 38019676 38469644

            39349600 39539556 39559497 39419451 39099433 38359437

            37959448 37609468 37179523 37019595 37079672 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH



