FXUS65 KSLC 262050

AFDSLC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT

250 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions are expected to continue

through at least the weekend, with the potential for a moisture

surge arriving next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Saturday)...Warm, dry conditions are

in store through Friday night as very gradual mid-level height

rises will occur in response to a ridge of high pressure

strengthening across the Four Corners into early next week. By

Friday, temperatures will rise into the 5F-15F above normal range

for late June. Other than locally breezy conditions (20-25 mph)

across southern Utah, winds will largely be light and terrain-

driven.



.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Saturday), Issued 408 AM MDT...

Long term forecast period begins with a fairly robust ridge 

serving as the dominant synoptic element across most of the Four 

Corners region. With the ridge in close proximity, afternoon highs

through the weekend will run around 5-10 degrees above 

climatological normal, pushing closer to and peaking around 10-15 

degrees above normal on Monday. While generally expected to be 

placed north of the forecast area, the northern jet looks to maybe

dip just far enough southward at times to bring some low end 

moisture across portions of northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. 

The subsident nature of the strong ridge should preclude much in 

the way of widespread activity, but wouldn't entirely rule out a 

shower or two trying to develop, especially off of some of the 

high terrain, or in areas further northwest in Utah where the 

ridge's effects will be slightly weaker. Given how limited 

moisture would be overall, if anything does develop, inverted-V 

type vertical profile would support gusty outflow winds.



Aside from temperatures likely peaking Monday, models also support a 

trough starting to push inland through the Pacific coast. The 

placement of the ridge and this trough in turn appear favorable to 

allow a bit more of a moisture tap to set up within the southerly 

flow. While the nearby ridge should still provide a subsident 

effect, the extra moisture and strong diurnal heating once again may 

be sufficient to develop some isolated high based convection across 

higher terrain. With the higher based nature, this would also once 

again support a gusty outflow wind threat for anywhere in reasonable 

vicinity to this convection. There is loose model consensus on 

continuing this moisture advection into Tuesday, with an uptick in 

convective potential noted accordingly.



Confidence in the evolution of the forecast moving further through 

the week dips, but there is some semblance of a potential pattern 

shift, or at least more of a continuation of the more active 

pattern. Deterministic models and ensembles do not really shift this 

trough through the forecast region, rather keeping it more or less 

extending through the Great Basin. With the ridge also shifting 

minimally, some sort of moisture tap within the southerly flow would 

be retained, if not enhanced further from an active eastern Pacific. 

This monsoonal type circulation would then support a continuation of 

daytime convection, with activity likely becoming more widespread if 

the pattern indeed develops. As of now the CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day 

precipitation outlooks lean in favor of above normal precipitation 

across the entirety of the forecast region, which certainly marks a 

change from the prolonged stretch of largely dry weather observed as 

of late. Given the potential for impacts related to events 

associated with the upcoming 4th of July holiday, it'll certainly be 

something to monitor in regards to how the forecast continues to 

trend.



&&



.AVIATION...KSLC...Winds are expected to switch northwesterly 

between 21-22z, but a 20% chance exists southerly winds will 

persist. Outside of the winds, operational weather concerns will 

remain minimal with VFR conditions under largely clear skies.



.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail 

across the airspace outside of areas downstream of large wildfires 

in the south. For those isolated areas (eg BCE) overnight stability 

will continue to settle surface smoke producing localized IFR/LIFR 

conditions. Diurnal winds with modest pm southerly gusts during the 

peak heating hours will continue throughout the valid TAF period.





&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and very dry conditions will continue through

at least Monday, with both minimum RH and overnight recoveries 

continuing to trend lower. Temperatures will also gradually warm 

through Monday, when the warming trend will level off at 10F to 

20F above normal for late June. Slightly enhanced winds across 

southeastern Utah on Friday afternoon will result in elevated to 

isolated near-critical fire weather conditions where fuels are 

critical, with wind gusts to 20-25 mph expected. Otherwise, winds 

should remain relatively light through the weekend. 



The pattern remains favorable for a push of monsoonal moisture by

early to the middle of next week, with some associated 

improvement in humidity, particularly overnight recoveries. 

Confidence in specific details such as timing is still low, but 

the threat for isolated dry thunderstorms and dry microbursts 

(favoring gusty and erratic outflow winds) is there, particularly 

with the initial onset of moisture. Often with these surges, this 

transitions into more of a local heavy rain threat after the 

initial push, but this is a detail that has yet to be resolved. 

Additionally, adding to the uncertainty, the latest guidance has 

trended slightly drier with the monsoonal moisture surge next 

week. We'll continue to monitor and adjust the forecast as 

necessary as we approach next week. 



&&



.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

UT...None.

WY...None.

&&



$$



ADeSmet/Warthen/Merrill



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