FXUS63 KABR 261734 AAC

AFDABR



Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED

National Weather Service Aberdeen SD

1234 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Showers and thunderstorms persist across the area today.

  Precipitation will end from east to west through the day with

  lingering showers and clouds holding tough the longest through 

  the late afternoon across northeast SD and west central MN.



- Severe storm chances return Friday/Friday night, with a slight

  risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather across most of central 

  and northeast South Dakota. Additional chances for severe 

  weather continue on Saturday with a slight risk (level 2 of 5) 

  for severe weather across northeast South Dakota and west 

  central Minnesota.



- Temperatures will remain rather warm along with higher levels of 

  humidity on Friday through the weekend. Drier conditions will be

  possible early next week as warm temperatures continue.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Updated forecast for the 18Z TAFs below.



UPDATE Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



With ongoing low to near zero visibility over portions of the 

Sisseton Hills, per several webcams in this area, the Fog 

Advisory has been extended until noon. Otherwise, radar continues 

to indicate a broad area of ongoing light to moderate rain 

showers, east of the Missouri River, slowly pushing 

northeastward. Models indicate this rain should exit the eastern 

portions of the CWA by this evening. With this slow moving rain 

and still reports of minor flooding issues, the Flood Warning has 

been extending until 7PM just to be on the safe side. Additional 

rainfall amounts up to an inch are possible through this evening. 

Otherwise the forecast remains on track.



UPDATE Issued at 606 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



The aviation discussion has been updated for the 12Z TAFS.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 510 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



An unsettled weather pattern continues to affect this forecast area 

early this morning as scattered showers and thunderstorms dot parts 

of central and northeast SD. Most of this activity has been tame or 

sub-severe, but it has been putting out some locally heavy rain at 

times. Based on latest guidance/CAMs, this activity will continue to 

evolve eastward from central SD into the James Valley this morning 

before shifting into the remainder of northeast SD and west central 

Minnesota closer to midday into the afternoon hours. Foggy 

conditions have also developed in parts of the forecast area. This 

is especially true in our eastern zones including the the I-29 

corridor west into the Glacial Lakes region. Area webcams in these 

areas indicate some widespread fog occurring and is dense in some 

locations from Deuel and Grant Counties north into Roberts, Marshall 

and Day Counties. Visibilities are not expected to improve anytime 

soon, at least until around 14Z-15Z and as a result have issued 

issue a dense fog advisory for these areas.



The upper flow pattern today will feature an upper trough axis 

shifting west to east across SD. This will aid in kicking out a 

quasi-stationary sfc boundary and its associated sfc low pressure 

system that has stubbornly remained in place across southern 

sections of SD for the last couple of days. As the precipitation in 

central SD moves east, it will be running into sfc ridging nosing 

into our northeast zones from a sfc high pressure system in Ontario. 

So, coverage may become limited or scattered with time. With the 

expected timing of the passage of the upper trough axis late this 

afternoon across our eastern zones, precip chances will linger in 

those areas into the afternoon hours before either waning or pushing 

east out of our area. Would anticipate just generic showers and/or 

storms as the atmosphere remains stable. Clouds will really be tough 

to break from the James Valley and points east through most of the 

day. Any potential for clearing will be confined to central SD 

closer to midday and afternoon.



Low amplitude shortwave ridging is progged to shift into the Dakotas 

by the end of today into Friday. This will give our area a respite 

from the precip, but it will be brief. The aforementioned sfc ridge 

shifts east into MN on Friday while lee side sfc troughing develops 

across the Northern High Plains in response to mid level shortwave 

energy tracking into the region from the Great Basin. Strengthening 

low level flow across our forecast area on Friday will advect in 

richer gulf moisture with dew point temperatures returning to the 

mid to upper 60s F by the afternoon hours. Modest to strong daytime 

heating will take place with 850mb temperatures returning to the 

upper teens C to the low 20s C in the afternoon. This will yield 

daytime highs mid 80s to low 90s from the James Valley and points 

west across central SD. All these ingredients combine to lead to 

moderate to strong instability in the afternoon. Strengthening mid 

level flow will result in very efficient deep layer shear. As the 

sfc trough shifts into the western Dakotas during the afternoon, 

anticipate convection to break out. Supercells will be possible 

capable of producing large hail and damaging winds and possibly a 

tornado or two. SPC currently highlights a slight risk (level 2 of 

5) for severe weather across most of central into northeast SD 

Friday afternoon into Friday night. This activity is progged to work 

east and southeast downstream through central and northeast areas of 

SD by the late afternoon through the evening. As of now, consensus 

indicates there could be two areas of convection. One would be 

across ND and if this verifies, those complex of storms could shift 

southeast into our forecast area affecting our northeast zones. The 

other could potentially be around the Black Hills region where 

storms could initiate and shift off east to southeast into the 

Plains perhaps affecting our southern zones. Just will have to 

monitor trends the next 24 to 36 hours to see how this event plays 

out.



For the weekend into early next week, an unsettled pattern will 

persist. More storms are expected on Saturday with the focus for 

severe weather shifting a bit farther east than Friday's outlook. 

SPC currently highlights a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe 

weather across northeast SD and west central MN on Saturday. A 

similar setup to Friday's activity is anticipated with convection 

firing in the vicinity of a sfc boundary and shifting east and 

southeast with time Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. All 

modes of severe weather threats will again be possible during this 

time. Beyond the weekend, early next week it could begin to dry out 

again and turn more quiet although temperature trends appear they 

will remain rather warm and summer-like the first half of next week.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG



Light to moderate rain showers continue over the James River

Valley and eastward, with the rain continuing its path northeast

into ND/MN.The last of the rain should exit the eastern portions 

of SD by this evening with dry conditions tonight into Friday 

morning. With ongoing low level moisture and post rain, fog is 

possible (could be dense in some areas of the James River 

Valley/Coteau) Friday morning. Cigs remain at IFR/MVFR at 

KPIR/KMBG with KABR improving to MVFR/VFR later on this afternoon.

KABR may fall back to lower cigs if the fog forms early Friday 

with KATY remaining in IFR to possibly LIFR tonight into early 

Friday morning.



&&



.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...None.

MN...None.

&&



$$



UPDATE...MMMDISCUSSION...Vipond

AVIATION...MMM

