FXUS61 KBTV 261934

AFDBTV



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

334 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

Much cooler temperatures with plenty of clouds will impact our 

region today, along with a few light rain showers. Any rainfall 

amounts will be light and generally under a tenth of an inch. An 

active period of weather is anticipated late Friday into Saturday 

with several rounds of localized heavy rainfall expected. Drier and 

warmer weather returns by early next week.



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...A relatively cool and quiet day continues

across the region this afternoon, with just a few light showers

reaching the ground given drier air at the surface. High

temperatures this afternoon have only climbed into the upper 60s and

low 70s, with plenty of cloud cover across the region. Some isolated

to scattered shower activity will continue to linger into tomorrow.

Overnight lows tonight will be fairly seasonably, with most

locations dropping into the 50s. Cooler conditions will continue

into tomorrow, with high temperatures once again only warming into

the upper 60s and low 70s.



&&



.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...An active period of weather is still

anticipated for Friday night through Saturday, with several rounds

of showers and embedded thunderstorms possible. The environment will

be quite favorable for efficient rainfall processes, with PWAT

values nearing 2.0 inches and deep warm layer cloud depths. Given

the favorable heavy rain set- up, isolated flash flooding will be

possible, especially in locations that receive multiple rounds of

rainfall. Compared to the previous forecast, the axis of the

heaviest precipitation has trended further northward, keeping just

the southern periphery near the international border. Despite the

current trend, any upstream convection and potential MCS will likely

influence the exact location of the heavier rainfall so there is

still some uncertainty. The current forecast shows 1.5 to inches

across the northern portions of the forecast area, with some locally

higher amounts possible. Given this current trend, no Flood Watch

has been issued at this time, but trends will need to be monitored

with the next few rounds of model guidance as we get closer to the

event. WPC continues to maintain a Slight Risk (2 of 4) in the Day 2

Excessive Rainfall Outlook. Showers will begin to taper off towards

Saturday evening. Temperatures during this time remain on the cooler

side, with highs generally in the 70s. Overnight lows will be on the

milder side with cloud cover and precipitation, generally in the

upper 50s to mid 60s.



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...Sunday will see things dry out as the

trough moves out of the area bringing the return of warmer weather

as temperatures push back into the upper 70s and low 80s. There will

still be some potential concerns with runoff from higher terrain

heightening the chances for some flooding in the lower valleys

during the day.



Ridging moves in on Monday, bringing partly cloudy skies and another

push of heat ahead of a warm front. Valleys will push into the upper

80s with some spots reaching 90. While we will have mid level

ridging, there is still slight chances for some isolated convection

in the afternoon across the region Tuesday will be more unsettled as

a cold front moves into the region. Timing still remains up in air,

but there are chances for more widespread convection during the day

Tuesday.



The mid-week also remains unsettled as an upper low stalls to our

north, bringing chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.



&&



.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Through 18Z Friday...Overall, VFR conditions and light winds 

are expected through the TAF period. Some light rain showers 

are generally expected between 18Z and 00Z across our terminals

but given that the rain is expected to fall out of a 10kft 

deck, much of it will likely evaporate prior to making it to the

ground. Any rain that does make it down to the ground will be 

light and likely won't have any impact on the flight category

expect some brief periods of MVFR Vis. MPV could see some early

morning fog if the mid level deck clears out, with some pre-dawn

IFR conditions. Winds will out of the northeast this afternoon 

at 5-10 knots, becoming light and variable overnight before 

becoming southeasterly at 5-10 knots tomorrow.



Outlook...



Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite

SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA,

Slight chance TSRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance

SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA,

Slight chance TSRA.

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,

Slight chance TSRA.

Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance

TSRA.



&&



.HYDROLOGY...

The latest NWS forecast continues to support the idea of several 

rounds of moderate to locally heavy rainfall will be possible

late Friday into Saturday. With boundary position and movement

at play, the exact placement of heaviest rainfall remains 

somewhat uncertain, with the most recent guidance trending

further north with the heaviest precipitation across southern

Canada. Given near normal streamflows and 0-40cm soil moisture 

profiles, we do have some wiggle room/capacity to handle some of

the runoff. As such, widespread mainstem river flooding is not 

expected at this point with the emphasis more on the flash flood

threat in small streams/watersheds in steep terrain. However, a

few of the smaller rivers may see sharp rises by Saturday. Our 

current precipitation forecast indicates 1.0 to 2.0 inches, 

with localized higher amounts likely across the higher terrain

and northern portions of the forecast area. It needs to be 

stated, a significant variability in rainfall distribution often

occurs during convective events, so exact precip amounts and 

placement are very challenging. Current 3/6 hour flash flood 

guidance of between 2 and 3.5 inches all appears reasonable at 

this time.



&&



.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

VT...None.

NY...None.



&&



$$

SYNOPSIS...Kremer

NEAR TERM...Kremer

SHORT TERM...Kremer

LONG TERM...Verasamy

AVIATION...Verasamy

HYDROLOGY...NWS BTV

