FXUS65 KTWC 261700

AFDTWC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tucson AZ

1000 AM MST Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...Afternoon and evening chances for showers and 

thunderstorms are possible daily through Friday in eastern 

locations, mainly closer to the New Mexico border. Temperatures 

become hotter this weekend as conditions dry out. Moisture is 

expected to increase next week and likely bring the start to the 

monsoon season.



&&



.UPDATE...The sky was sunny to partly cloudy across southeast

Arizona this morning. GOES-19 PW imagery showed values between 

0.80" and 1" along the AZ/NM border. This area will have a 10-30% 

chance of storms this afternoon. Otherwise high temperatures will 

be near normal. See discussion below for further details in the 

7-day forecast. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...Water vapor and satellite derived moisture 

products this morning show an eastward expansion of dry air into 

western Graham and Cochise counties. This has dropped forecast 

thunderstorm coverage today to an area generally near and east of 

a line from the White Mountains through Safford, Willcox, and 

Sierra Vista. With satellite derived precipitable water values 

generally near or below one inch and forecast CAPE values on the 

weak side in this area, storm coverage and strength should be low.



Friday should see a marginally better environment in eastern

locations than today, but otherwise a similar storm strength 

outlook will be in store. 00Z guidance does try to bring in weak

moisture into southern Pima and Santa Cruz counties Friday,

however this doesn't look like a strong enough push at this moment

to add notable thunderstorm chances. 



From this weekend into early next week an upper ridge is expected

to become centered over the Four Corners. By Monday this ridge 

will likely have become amplified through the Pacific Northwest 

and northern Rockies. NAEFS guidance shows 700mb temperatures over

Arizona around the 90th climatological percentile for this time 

of year, highlighting the heat potential. Current forecast highs 

for southeastern Arizona desert locations on Monday run from 108 

to 112.



This ridge orientation next week will additionally favor the

increase in moisture needed to start the monsoon season. As

previously discussed the Climate Prediction Center has highlighted

southern Arizona for a high risk of heavy rainfall and flash

flooding during the second half of the week, which is when 

ensemble models have heavily favored rich moisture to set in. In 

the initial moisture push however there will still be 

opportunities for thunderstorm impacts including strong wind 

gusts, blowing dust, and lightning as early as Monday as the 

incoming moisture interacts with the hot and initially dry 

antecedent atmosphere. 



&&



.AVIATION...Valid through 27/12Z.

FEW clouds at 10k feet, otherwise SKC through 26/18Z. FEW-SCT 

cumulus at 10k feet with isolated to scattered showers and 

thunderstorms mainly near and east of a KSAD- KFHU line after 

26/18Z, diminishing after 27/03Z. Isolated gusts up to 40 kts with

stronger cells. Otherwise winds light and under 12 kts with an 

occasional afternoon gust up to 20 kts. Aviation discussion not 

updated for TAF amendments.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Chances for isolated to scattered showers and 

thunderstorms today and tomorrow east of Tucson. Minimum relative 

humidities from 10 to 20 percent today and tomorrow, with a drying

and warming trend this weekend. Winds generally light and under 

15 mph with isolated gusts up to 45 mph under any thunderstorm 

through Friday. Moisture should begin to arrive next week and 

bring a start to the monsoon season across southeastern Arizona. 



&&



.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



&&



$$



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