FXUS64 KLUB 262330

AFDLUB



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Lubbock TX

630 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 629 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected once again

   today across much of the Caprock. 

 

 - Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon,

   this weekend through early next week. 



 - A gradual warming trend through the weekend is expected before

   a weak cool down early next week. 



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(This evening through Friday)

Issued at 139 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



It's a wash, rinse, repeat scenario today as monsoonal moisture 

continues to stream northeastward through the South Plains. In the 

last 24 hours precipitation totals have reminded fairly minimal... 

between 0.01 inches and 0.10 inches with a few exceptions here and 

there. As we maintain our posture between a dissipating UL trough to 

the west and an eastward moving UL high pressure to the east the 

expectation is that the moisture along with the scattered showers we 

have been seeing for the past 24 hours will continue through at 

least tomorrow evening. However, tomorrow as the main flow becomes 

more disorganized chances for precipitation  decrease, remaining in 

the 15% range area wide. As noted yesterday, with surface CAPE 

values nearing 1000 J/kg a storm or two may produce lightning and 

strong wind gusts, but overall the severe threat remains low. 



Temperatures are the main struggle this afternoon given the 

persistent cloud coverage. Have used CONSHORT for high temperatures 

today with a peak in the upper 80s west of I27....about 10 degrees 

below normal. East of I27 high temperatures will be in the mid to low 

90s. Tomorrow temperatures will once again be dependent on how much 

cloud coverage and moisture we have, but for now have left the 

loaded NBM with highs in the 80s to 90s. Tonight another round of 

lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s will be possible. 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Friday night through next Wednesday)

Issued at 139 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



The long term forecast package remains untouched this afternoon with 

the FA finding itself beneath the ever persistent upper level ridge 

that is expected to dominate over much of the southern half of the 

United States through the weekend and into early next week. Despite 

upper level ridging overhead, daily chances for afternoon showers 

and thunderstorms will continue, primarily across our most western 

column of counties, through the weekend as an axis of monsoonal 

moisture continues to extend across the West Texas region into the 

Central Plains. Given the lack of overall forcing and instability 

present, the overall severe threat looks to remain low with mostly 

steady showers and a few rumbles of thunder possible. Temperatures 

will also continue to gradually warm each afternoon through the 

weekend, with subsidence at the surface allowing for increased 

thickness values across the region. Which combined with the warm 

southerly surface winds will result in temperatures climbing into 

the lower to upper 90s. Given the presence of moisture through the 

lower to mid levels on forecast soundings, along with previous days, 

there is a chance any low to mid-level cloud cover that lingers 

through parts of the afternoon could hinder daytime highs. However, 

confidence in this remains low with the expectation of any cloud 

cover, if any, that develops to diminish before peak heating. As we 

head into the start of the work week next week, an upper level 

trough moving onshore the California coast will work to amplify the 

upper level ridge across the Desert Southwest while a secondary 

trough digs through the Upper Midwest. As a result, flow aloft will 

begin to turn more northerly, with subtle perturbations riding down 

the eastern side of the ridge may work with the consistent monsoonal 

moisture axis to generate thunderstorms across much of the Caprock 

as early as Sunday night through Tuesday. Monday night into Tuesday 

night looks to be the best window for precipitation chances, with the 

monsoonal plume directed right across the FA. Along with the renewed 

precipitation chances, temperatures will likely cool a few degrees 

early next week with highs in the 80s to lower 90s thanks to 

decreased thickness values and expected cloud cover. 



&&



.AVIATION...

(00Z TAFS)

Issued at 629 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



With ongoing convection across the region, surging outflow 

boundaries are possible and can exhibit sudden wind shifts. Tomorrow 

afternoon looks to be a repeat of today with scattered showers and 

thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR outside of convective activity. 



KL



&&



.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...28

LONG TERM....12

AVIATION...26

