FXUS65 KPUB 262046

AFDPUB



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Pueblo CO

246 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Hot Friday and Saturday, with isolated afternoon thunderstorms

  both days, mainly over the higher terrain. 

  

- A pattern change arrives Sunday, leading to a period of near

  to below normal temperatures, and daily chances for showers 

  and storms through much of next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Issued at 217 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Isolated brief thunderstorms were occurring in a weakly

unstable (CAPE 400-800 J/KG) air mass along the I-25 corridor 

at midday, with slightly better coverage of storms near/south 

of the Raton Mesa where mid-level moisture is marginally higher.

Farther west, moisture is extremely limited, with surface 

dewpoints in the teens/single digits along the Continental 

Divide/Upper Arkansas Valley leading to only some very shallow 

convective cloudiness and little if any rainfall. For the 

remainder of the afternoon and into this evening, still a risk 

of isolated storms from the eastern mountains onto the plains, 

with best chance for activity along the Palmer Divide and south 

near the NM and OK borders. Again, storms will be brief, with 

mainly lightning/wind/brief rainfall for a 10-20 minute period 

before storms dissipate. Expect most activity to end by midnight

with loss of heating. 



Slightly warmer on Fri with as upper ridge builds a bit and mid

level temps creep up a degc or two. Expect a repeat performance

of isolated afternoon convection once again, best chances over 

the eastern mountains and along the Palmer Divide, with perhaps

a weak storm on the plains near the KS border (especially Baca 

County) by early evening. Again, too dry for much more than some

afternoon cloud build-ups farther west along the Continental 

Divide. 



&&



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 328 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Friday Night and Saturday..



Convection looks to taper early in the evening hours of Friday, 

clearing from west to east across our far eastern plains by around 

9pm or so at the latest. Overnight lows will be very close to 

normal, cooling into the 60s across the eastern plains, 50s for the 

I-25 corridor, and 40s for mountain valleys. Models continue to show 

a transition period for Friday and Saturday as high pressure builds 

in over the southwest, and eventually centers itself over the Four 

Corners region next week. This will mean messy southwest flow with 

slightly above normal temperatures and southerly flow at the surface 

for Saturday. Highs look to climb into the 90s across much of the 

plains, with 80s for the northern and southern I-25 corridors, and 

80s for mountain valleys as well. Showers and storms look increase 

in coverage slightly from Friday, but will likely remain isolated 

and mainly confined the higher country, the Pikes Peak region, and 

the Raton Mesa for Saturday afternoon. 



Sunday Onwards..



Models continue to depict shortwave energy traversing the region on 

Sunday, along with a cold frontal passage sometime Sunday evening. 

Showers and thunderstorms look to increase in coverage on Sunday, 

with scattered coverage expected over portions of the high country. 

Depending on cold frontal timing, we will likely see another day of 

slightly above normal temperatures on Sunday before the front 

arrives, with most plains locations still climbing into the 80s and 

90s. Behind the front, temperatures fall back down into the 4 to 6 

degrees cooler than normal range for Monday and Tuesday. Highs both 

days are likely to remain in the 80s over both the plains and our 

mountain valleys. Chances for near or below normal temperatures and 

widespread, persistent showers and storms increase for much of next 

week in fact, as models continue to build high pressure over the 

Four Corners region with a low off the California coast. With the 

low sitting off the coast and the pattern persistence not quite yet 

known, this forecaster is hesitant to officially call next week's 

setup the start of the monsoon, however, it does show promising 

signs of bringing some much needed "monsoon-looking" moisture to the 

region, especially to our southwest mountains.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1123 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs with diurnal wind cycle of

12 kts or less. Low risk of a -tsra over Pikes Peak Region/Palmer

Divide this afternoon, though activity looks too isolated to 

include in the KCOS taf at this point.



&&



.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...PETERSEN

LONG TERM...EHR

AVIATION...PETERSEN

