FXUS64 KLZK 261703 AAA

AFDLZK



Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED

National Weather Service Little Rock AR

1203 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Issued at 101 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



- Hot and humid conditions will prevail through the end of the 

  week and likely through the weekend with heat indices of 

  100-109.



- Rainfall chances increase Sunday afternoon through the middle of

  next week. The best chance to see showers and thunderstorms will

  be across the northern half of the state. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 101 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms were seen over portions

of central, north central, and northeast Arkansas on Wednesday

afternoon and evening. Those areas that were lucky to be under 

the showers and thunderstorms saw some temporary relief from the 

hot and humid conditions. Latest deterministic and ensemble 

guidance continues to favors the NBM 75th percentile, which shows

temperatures in the mid to upper 90s through the weekend over 

most of the forecast area. Any relief from the oppressive heat

indices will come in the form of isolated showers and thunderstorms

or the density of the CU field over any given area during each 

afternoon through Saturday.



By Sunday night,a shortwave trough will north across the northern

Plains toward the Great Lakes region with a trailing weak cold 

front moving southwest through the central Plains and stalling 

somewhere over the Ozark plateau. The front will aid in bringing 

chances for showers and thunderstorms over the northern half of 

the state during the aforementioned time frame. Models begin to 

vary in regards to timing/placement and how far south the front 

will move into the state through the latter part of next week. 

will bring additional chances for showers and thunderstorms to the

area through the latter part of the week. At this time, the best

for showers and thunderstorms will be over the northern half of

the state during from next Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures

will be a few degrees cooler with some relief from dangerous heat

indices that the state has seen over the last several days around

the middle to latter part of next week. 



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



VFR condns were noted acrs the FA Thurs aftn, w/ diurnal Cu noted

on recent vis sat imgry. A few initial TS were noted on recent

radar imgry over E Cntrl AR. Expect covg of TS to stay focused 

over Cntrl to Ern and SErn AR thru the aftn to evng hrs, w/ gusty 

winds the main threats for any storms that do impact terminals. 

Otherwise, diurnal Cu and SWrly winds wl be the main notes on

Thurs w/ no other sig wx expected thru the PD. 



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Batesville AR     74  94  75  93 /   0  10  10  30 

Camden AR         72  95  74  95 /   0  10   0  10 

Harrison AR       71  88  72  89 /  10  30  20  40 

Hot Springs AR    73  94  74  95 /   0  10   0  10 

Little Rock   AR  75  95  76  95 /  10  10   0  20 

Monticello AR     74  96  76  96 /  20  10   0  10 

Mount Ida AR      72  93  73  94 /   0  10   0  20 

Mountain Home AR  71  90  72  89 /   0  30  20  50 

Newport AR        75  95  76  95 /   0  10  10  30 

Pine Bluff AR     73  95  75  95 /  30  10   0  10 

Russellville AR   73  93  74  94 /   0  10   0  20 

Searcy AR         73  95  74  95 /  10  10   0  20 

Stuttgart AR      75  94  77  94 /  30  10   0  10 



&&



.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for ARZ007-008-016-017-024-

025-031>034-039-042>047-053>057-062>069-123.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Kelly

AVIATION...72

