FXUS62 KILM 261350

AFDILM



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wilmington NC

950 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

Temperatures will remain above normal for the next several days

but not as hot as the past few. Thunderstorms will favor the

afternoon hours and only be isolated to widely scattered.

Wetter weather will precede a cold front next Tuesday and

Wednesday.



&&



.UPDATE...

Morning low temps dipped into the 60s for most local cities 

with the exception of Myrtle Beach and Wilmington. Even the 

North Myrtle Beach airport (KCRE) managed to sneak down to 68

degrees overnight. Patchy morning fog and low ceilings burned 

off and skies should remain sunny through the remainder of the 

morning except for a little blowoff cirrus from Gulf Stream 

convection off the South Carolina coast.



The airmass has changed markedly over the past 24 hours. The 12z

MHX sounding had mid-level lapse rates practically dry 

adiabatic (7.9C/km) 24 hours ago -- these are now a more modest

6.1C/km. Precipitable water has also fallen to 1.35 inches with

substantial mid level drying noted. The net result should be 

significantly less convection developing this afternoon. The 

00z HREF and more recent CAMs indicate just a smattering of 

storms inland from the seabreeze later today. I've trimmed back

PoPs slightly but hang onto 20-30 percent chances, highest near

Lumberton late in the day.



Forecast highs remain in the mid 90s inland with expected upper

80s to lower 90s near the coast. Dewpoints are fortunately lower

than yesterday and it appears maximum heat indices this

afternoon should remain below the 105 degree trigger for a Heat

Advisory.



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

The ridging that had produced the significant heat earlier in the 

week continues to lose strength today. At the same time a 5h 

low will drift north along the length of the FL Peninsula. 

Temperatures remain above normal today, but the heat and 

humidity won't be quite as extreme as it has been. No plans for 

any heat products today with heat index coming in under 105F 

across the forecast area. 



Forecast soundings still show an atmosphere with a fair amount of 

instability. Mid-level lapse rates are not nearly as explosive as 

they were on Wed, barely exceeding 6C/km and there is a lot of dry 

air above 15k ft. Despite these limitations think there will be some 

storms that are able to develop this afternoon. Warm temps and 

dewpoints around 70 will keep SBCAPE over 2k J/kg with pockets of 

SBCAPE in excess of 4k J/kg. The sea breeze will once again help 

develop convection and there are likely to be left over surface 

boundaries as well as the potential for differential heating from 

lingering debris cloud. There may also be a bit of weak PVA arriving 

during the early to mid-afternoon hours associated with the 5h low 

over FL. Can see hints of this on water vapor imagery north of the 

Bahamas as a band of broken clouds that emanates from the upper 

low. Confidence is a good bit lower than yesterday with respect to 

storm coverage given the aforementioned limitations/slightly less 

favorable environment, hence have chance pop for the area today. 

Storm motion will be more of an east to west today vs the unusual 

north-northeast to south-southwest seen on Wed. 



As previously mentioned temps above normal continue today and 

tonight, but by a paltry 3-5 degrees as opposed to the 10+ degrees 

the last few days. Rain chances come to an end once diurnal storms 

end or push west of the forecast area this evening. Leaving mostly 

clear skies overnight. Light winds may allow for some patchy fog, 

depending on how much rain falls today, but not expecting 

significant fog issues.



&&



.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

The upper low from the short term dissipates over the weekend 

leaving behind light flow through most of the column. Once again 

thunderstorms will be focused along and just west of the seabreeze. 

Afternoon highs will remain elevated a few degrees above normal and 

pinpointing favored locales for convection will be tricky given

forcing being limited to the mesoscale and storm motion slow 

and erratic. Changes start taking shape Tuesday into Wednesday 

with the approach of a surface cold front and mid level trough.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

The upper low from the short term dissipates over the weekend 

leaving behind light flow through most of the column. Once again 

thunderstorms will be focused along and just west of the seabreeze. 

Afternoon highs will remain elevated a few degrees above normal and 

pinpointing favored locales for convection will be tricky given

forcing being limited to the mesoscale and storm motion slow 

and erratic. Changes start taking shape Tuesday into Wednesday 

with the approach of a surface cold front and mid level trough.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

High confidence in widespread VFR into mid-afternoon before 

brief storm related MVFR/IFR may become an issue at inland

terminals. 



Light westerly flow this morning will come back around to

south-southeast during the day with somewhat enhanced speeds

along the coast due to the sea breeze. Anticipate another round

of afternoon/evening storms, but with coverage less than seen on

Wednesday. Not anticipating much of an impact for the coastal 

terminals with storms moving from east-southeast to west- 

northwest this afternoon. Convection that develops along the sea

breeze will move inland and the coastal terminals will be east 

of the sea breeze by the time storms can develop. Carrying 

PROB30 for FLO/LBT given limited coverage and some uncertainty 

with respect to the actual timing of storms. Combination of 

storms moving west and decreasing instability late in the day 

will bring an end to storms between 00Z and 02Z. Some MVFR fog

possible pre-dawn on Friday but confidence in this occurring is

low.



Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR with brief MVFR/IFR possible in 

the afternoon and evening.



&&



.MARINE...

South to southwest winds across the waters today and tonight with 

enhancement to 10-15 kt in the afternoon in response to the sea 

breeze. Strength of the southerly flow remains a little more 

elevated tonight than it has during past nights due to a slightly 

stronger gradient between the more defined Piedmont trough and the 

Bermuda High. The extended duration of 10-15 kt winds will allow 3 

ft seas to creep into the outer waters later in the forecast period. 

The uptick in winds and the increased duration will keep the 

southerly wind wave dominant over a southeast swell.



Friday through Monday... Our most common summertime marine winds 

expected through the period as flow remains out of the SW due to the 

Bermuda High. The southwesterly wind waves will dominate early on 

but the SE swell energy will increase late in the period.



&&



.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...None.

SC...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...ILM

UPDATE...TRA

NEAR TERM...III

SHORT TERM...MBB

LONG TERM...MBB

AVIATION...ILM

MARINE...ILM

