ACUS11 KWNS 261629

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 261629 

WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-261830-



Mesoscale Discussion 1452

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1129 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Areas affected...Parts of northeastern IA...southeast

MN...southern/central WI



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 



Valid 261629Z - 261830Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent



SUMMARY...Severe storms with a threat of a few tornadoes and

isolated to scattered damaging winds may develop this afternoon.



DISCUSSION...An MCV is moving out of the Missouri Valley toward

southern MN, immediately in advance of a larger-scale

mid/upper-level trough moving across the northern Plains. A warm

front is draped from northern IA into southern WI. This front will

move northward into this afternoon, as a surface wave moves along

the front near the MN/IA border. Rich low-level moisture is in place

near and south of the warm front. Midlevel lapse rates are weak, but

diurnal heating of the very moist airmass will result in MLCAPE

increasing into the 1500-2500 J/kg range along and south of the

front. 



Visible satellite indicates some clearing north of the warm front

from northeast IA into far southeast MN and southwest WI. This will

allow moderate buoyancy to develop within a region where surface

winds are backed and effective SRH is locally enhanced. As the MCV

and surface wave move across the region, supercell development will

be possible near/north of the warm front and near the surface low,

with relatively enlarged low-level hodographs supporting a tornado

threat. Eventually, a broken line of storms may eventually develop

along a trailing cold front, which could also pose a threat of

locally damaging winds, and possibly a tornado. 



Watch issuance is likely by early afternoon in order to address

these threats.



..Dean/Hart.. 06/26/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...



LAT...LON   42729316 42529386 42279476 43019445 43859394 44319263

            44539145 44549027 44208887 43588845 43078852 42918895

            42929015 42899223 42729316 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH



