FXUS63 KDDC 262332 CCA

AFDDDC



Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

632 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Scattered strong thunderstorms developing this afternoon,

  focused across areas east of a Liberal-Dodge City-Larned 

  line. 



- SPC Marginal Risk (1 of 5) of severe for a damaging wind risk

  with only a very low probability of large hail (less than 5%

  prob. risk within 25 miles of a point). 



- WPC Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall late this  

  afternoon/evening focused mainly on south central Kansas, 

  generally east of an Ashland-Kinsley-Great Bend line.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



A surface tough will be the focus for after moisture 

convergence and convective initiation, with the axis likely 

somewhere along a Liberal to just east of DDC and Rush county 

line, based on the consensus of some of the CAMs. Around an inch

and one half layer precipitable water in that zone still keeps 

PWATS around 150% of normal for heading into the last week of 

June. Convection this afternoon will have similar 

characteristics of the last 2 days, in that efficient rain rates

reducing visibility to a mile or two in +TSRA and dangerous CG 

lightning. The window of opportunity for the convective threat 

is between as early as 3 this afternoon through about 10 pm. A 

water loaded storm producing a localized damaging wet macroburst 

cannot be ruled out late this afternoon. HREF 1-hr calibrated 

probability of thunder ramps up to around 50-60% from around 

Liberal to southern Gray and Ford counties and then southeastward 

across the Red Hills region (Comanche, Med lodge, as well as 

Pratt) where enhanced surface dew points in the mid to upper 60s 

and lower 70s reside. 



The next few days, at least through Saturday have far less 

opportunity for thunderstorm with the lack of a forcing 

mechanism in place, and the SPC outlooks for days 2 and 3 are in

the general thunder category across the entire region. 

Temperatures and as such heat risk will be on the rise through 

Saturday where areas north of K-96 should reach the moderate 

level (2 of 4) which corresponds to affecting individuals 

sensitive to heat such as those without effective cooling, and 

adequate hydration, especially those in some health systems and 

heat sensitive industries. A light relief comes by Monday 

through Wednesday as highs fall back into the 80s though that 

period following fairly good precipitation probabilities for 

Sunday night (30 to 50% for day 4).



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow with only a few mid

to high level clouds by tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be light

and variable overnight shifting to the southwest by late

morning. 



&&



.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Russell

AVIATION...Bennett

