FXUS62 KTBW 261246

AFDTBW



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL

846 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New UPDATE, AVIATION...



.UPDATE...

Issued at 846 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Quiet start to the day with just a few showers and thunderstorms

over the northern coastal waters, otherwise partly to mostly sunny 

skies across the region. Surface high pressure well out in the 

Atlantic Ocean will continue the low level east to southeast flow 

with a sea breeze developing near the coast during the afternoon.

Moisture is a little lower than our typical summer day, running

around 1.5 inches early this morning, but we do have an upper 

level low over the peninsula with relatively cold temperatures

aloft. This combination with daytime heating and the sea breeze

will lead to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this 

afternoon and evening, with highest rain chances along the coastal 

counties where the sea breeze will be located. A few of these

storms could become strong and produce damaging winds and some 

hail. Current forecast looks on track with no changes planned at

this time.



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 846 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF forecast

period, but scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will 

develop this afternoon and evening causing MVFR/local IFR

conditions. East to southeast winds will increase to 5 to 7 knots

later this morning through the afternoon, but may shift to 

southwest to west for a short time at SRQ as the sea breeze 

develops. Gusty erratic winds will be possible near any showers 

and thunderstorms.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 219 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

An U/L low will persist over the Florida peninsula today. Surface

high pressure will hold over the region with the ridge axis north

of the forecast area which will continue to create easterly

boundary layer flow across the region. Like the previous several

days, this will aid in holding the west coast sea breeze boundary

over the coastal counties through the day. The east coast sea

breeze boundary will push slowly across the peninsula during the

afternoon hours, colliding with the west coast sea breeze boundary

late in the day to the early evening hours which will enhance 

shower/thunderstorm development over the coastal counties. A

pocket of cold air aloft will remain over the forecast area, and

this will create the risk for a few strong to severe storms to

develop with gusty winds and large hail.



The U/L low will gradually fill and lift north of the forecast

area on Friday. However, a residual pocket of cold air aloft may

hold over the region creating another day for strong to possibly

severe thunderstorms. The surface ridge axis will sink south of 

the forecast area which will break the overall low level pattern 

as west to southwest boundary layer flow will develop. This will 

shift the best chance of rain to the interior. The sea breeze 

boundary collisions will likely occur east of the forecast area, 

which will likely reduce this risk for severe weather across west

central and southwest Florida...with the best chance over the 

eastern interior.



The surface ridge axis will remain over south Florida on Saturday

which will continue to create onshore west to southwest boundary

layer flow. This will again create the best chance for afternoon

storms over the interior. Mid level temperatures should warm 

sufficiently to decrease the risk for severe weather.



A weak U/L trough will develop over the southeast U.S. and north

Florida late in the weekend. Combined with the onshore boundary

layer flow, this will likely increase shower and thunderstorm

activity over the northeast Gulf which will move locally onshore.

This pattern will likely hold for several days into early next

week...which could mean locally heavy rainfall to portions of the

nature coast. Elsewhere, continued onshore flow will push the west

coast sea breeze boundary inland during the afternoon hours with 

highest pops over the interior each day.



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 219 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

High pressure will hold over the waters through the weekend with

winds below cautionary levels each day. Gradient may increase over

the northern waters early next week above cautionary levels.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 219 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will 

keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical 

levels.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TPA  92  76  91  78 /  70  50  50  40 

FMY  92  74  92  76 /  70  50  60  30 

GIF  93  74  93  75 /  70  30  60  30 

SRQ  91  74  90  76 /  70  50  50  40 

BKV  94  70  93  72 /  70  40  50  30 

SPG  89  77  88  78 /  70  50  50  40 



&&



Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 2

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4



For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: 

    https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology



&&



.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.

Gulf waters...None.



&&



$$



UPDATE/AVIATION...Close

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby

DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Flannery

