ACUS11 KWNS 262153

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 262153 

WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-270000-



Mesoscale Discussion 1461

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0453 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Areas affected...portions of far southeast Minnesota into central

and southern Wisconsin



Concerning...Tornado Watch 463...



Valid 262153Z - 270000Z



The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 463 continues.



SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind gusts and tornadoes should

persist over the next few hours. This severe threat may accompany

storms within an east-ward-progressing QLCS, or with storms that

develop ahead of the QLCS and interact favorably with a

quasi-stationary front. A downstream Tornado Watch issuance may be

needed if confidence increases in more robust, downstream storms

materializing.



DISCUSSION...A loosely organized QLCS continued to track eastward

across far eastern MN into WI, and is traversing a quasi-stationary

front. Along this front, rich low-level moisture and steep low-level

lapse rates are contributing to 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Along with

this appreciable instability is 35-45 kts of effective bulk shear

that is overspreading the boundary. Furthermore, regional VADs show

hodographs with modest curvature and 200-300 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH. As

such, ambient conditions along this boundary are favorable for the

development of severe gusts and tornadoes.



At the moment, the tornado threat could increase in southern WI

under two scenarios. First is with QLCS segments that traverse the

boundary, optimizing the ingestion of locally higher streamwise

vorticity. The second scenario involves the maturation of

free-warm-sector thunderstorms into supercells that can produce

tornadoes while crossing the boundary and briefly ingesting

cross-wise vorticity. Convective trends are currently being

monitored for further storm intensification under either scenario

and the subsequent need for a Tornado Watch issuance.



..Squitieri/Guyer.. 06/26/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...



LAT...LON   44469159 44299007 43738863 43198775 42608831 42578921

            42588987 42659035 42799079 42959111 43159131 43309155

            43389165 44469159 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH



