FXXX12 KWNP 261231

DAYDIS



:Product: Forecast Discussion

:Issued: 2025 Jun 26 1230 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web

# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html

#

#             Forecast Discussion

#

Solar Activity



.24 hr Summary...

Solar activity was at low levels. A C1.3 flare was observed at 25/2112

UTC from Region 4120 (N06W31, Dai/beta-gamma), which was the largest

event of the period. Regions 4117 (S14W38, Dso/beta) and 4118 (S12W27,

Cai/beta) continued to exhibit decay and were relatively quiet. Region

4122 (N13E48, Bxi/beta) was stable and managed a C1 flare. Region 4120

underwent evolution gaining asymmetric penumbra on its leading spots and

developed a gamma magnetic configuration. No Earth-directed CMEs were

observed in available coronagraph imagery.



.Forecast...

A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, with a slight

chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong), will persist through 28

June.



Energetic Particle



.24 hr Summary...

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak

flux of 1,260 pfu at 25/1355 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux

was at background levels.



.Forecast...

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate

levels through 26 June before likely returning to high levels on 27 and

28 June due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is

expected to continue at background levels through 28 June.



Solar Wind



.24 hr Summary...

Solar wind parameters reflected negative polarity CH HSS onset. Total

field was elevated between 10-16 nT. The Bz component underwent several

deflections at near +/- 10 nT. Solar wind speeds gradually increased

from ~420 to ~660 km/s. Phi was predominantly in the negative solar

sector.



.Forecast...

An enhanced solar wind environment is expected to continue through 27

June under a negative polarity CH HSS regime before beginning to trend

towards a more nominal environment on 28 June.



Geospace



.24 hr Summary...

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.



.Forecast...

G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely, with a chance for an isolated

G2 (Moderate) storming period, on 26-27 June due to negative polarity CH

HSS effects. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 28 June as

negative polarity CH HSS effects begin to diminish.

