FXUS63 KJKL 261232

AFDJKL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Jackson KY

832 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Hot and humid conditions will continue into the weekend, with

  temperatures gradually moderating each day. Heat indices peaking

  in the 100 to 105 degree range are forecast for many locations

  through today, before gradually lowering into the 90s by 

  Saturday.



- Diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances gradually increase

  through the end of the week and weekend before peaking early 

  next week.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 831 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025



A fairly comprehensive mid-morning update has been sent out. With

isolated convection already over/near Bath County and the

Interstate 64 corridor, PoPs were raised to 15 nearly areawide

beginning with the 12z hour and then interpolated upwards into 

the afternoon before diminishing into the evening. 



RAP soundings for this afternoon indicate a moderately to 

strongly unstable environment with a fairly dry air above a 

surface environment characterized by dew points in the lower 70s 

and temperatures in the lower to mid 90s. This would suggest an

environment supportive of strong downbursts with stronger storms,

which could produce isolated instances of damaging winds. A small

hail threat will also exist in addition to the threat for locally

excessive rainfall. 







UPDATE Issued at 1120 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025



A lingering storm or two remains in the far eastern parts of the

state but should fade out through the next hour or so. Otherwise,

have mainly just included the latest obs and trends for the 

T/Td/Sky grids. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and 

web servers along with freshened SAFs and zones with the HWO

updated as soon as the storms end. 



UPDATE Issued at 855 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025



00Z sfc analysis shows high pressure starting to lose control of 

the weather over eastern Kentucky. This has allowed a cluster of

thunderstorms to develop over the Bluegrass Region and additional

convection is working southeast on the initial outflow boundary.

These pulsers are briefly strong before collapsing with gusty

winds and a bout of heavy rain. These will continue to fade out

through mid evening with the loss of instability. Currently 

temperatures are running in the low to mid 80s. Meanwhile, amid 

light winds away from any storms, dewpoints are generally in the 

low to mid 70s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the 

latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids but also to adjust

the PoPs through the night per radar and CAMs guidance. Also

touched up the valley fog expectations into dawn, Thursday. These

adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with 

a freshening of the zones, HWO, and SAFs.



&&



.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)

Issued at 152 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025



Upper ridging will gradually weaken through Thursday night as a 

weak upper trough develops over the Southeast U.S. This will help

to increase shower and thunderstorm probabilities for Thursday

afternoon and evening. 



A few isolated showers and/or storms are possible through early

this evening, but most areas will remain dry. More supportive

conditions for storms will remain mostly east and southeast of the

forecast area, but these more supportive conditions arrive for 

Thursday afternoon and evening area-wide, along with the risk for

a stronger storm or two that could produce damaging winds. 



Although lower confidence compared to previous days, the Heat 

Advisory has been extended one more day through Thursday to 

account for maximum heat indices in the 100 to 105 degree range. 

Meanwhile, one more night of record or near-record high minimum 

temperatures are expected at our climate stations in Jackson and 

London. 

 



.LONG TERM...(Fridaythrough Wednesday)

Issued at 152 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025



Models are in good agreement that upper-level heights gradually 

lower through the extended period, with a trough becoming

established over the Ohio River Valley this weekend and especially 

into the first half of next week. 



As the upper ridging weakens and slides east Friday, mid-level 

southerly flow will increase over the area, which along with the 

presence of mid-level dry air may present an environment 

supportive of isolated microbursts producing locally damaging 

winds.



As showers and thunderstorms becoming increasingly likely each 

day from Friday into next week, the increased cloud cover and 

moisture will allow for high temperatures to gradually lower back 

towards seasonal normals, while lows will also remain mild to warm

but also trend back below threatening daily records for high 

minimums. The one aspect of the forecast that does not look to 

change is the high humidity, with 70s continuing through at least 

Tuesday if not also Wednesday of next week. 



&&



.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)

ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025



Light and variable winds through the TAF period. Morning fog

across eastern Kentucky is in the process of dissipating, and

should clear at the TAF sites around 12Z. More dense fog in the

valley will take 1-2 hours longer to clear, but is also expected

to lift by late morning. 



A stray shower or storm is possible this afternoon, but coverage 

of pop-up storms is expected to be low so confidence in impacts to

TAF sites is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. In 

addition to brief reductions below VFR conditions, gusty winds 

will be possible in and near any showers/storms. 



&&



.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ044-050>052-

058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.





&&



$$



UPDATE...CMC

SHORT TERM...CMC

LONG TERM...CMC

AVIATION...CAMDEN/SGF

