FXUS62 KTAE 261853

AFDTAE



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tallahassee FL

253 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...



.NEAR TERM...

(Through Friday)

Issued at 226 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



A fairly routine near term is on tap, low-level southerly flow will 

reestablish allowing the sea breeze to push fairly deep inland 

tomorrow afternoon. An upper-level low will continue to meander 

gradually northeastward throughout Friday while adding some 

additional forcing for ascent. This will allow us to see more 

convective coverage tomorrow, beginning closer to noon rather than 

late afternoon as we've been experiencing the last few days. Heavy 

downpours and gusty winds are possible with any thunderstorms 

tomorrow afternoon.



Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 90s with overnight 

lows generally in the low to mid 70s.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Friday night through Saturday night)

Issued at 226 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



The upper low will remain largely in place across the Southeast

through the short term period. With sufficient deep layer moisture

in place, this will create an environment that leads to above

normal PoPs, especially during the daytime hours with diurnally

driven convection. The operational NBM PoPs were used and while

these are higher than the GFS-based statistical guidance, the

overall environmental setup seems quite favorable to the N-S PoP

gradient presented in the NBM. While convective activity from

Friday may influence trends on Saturday, the overall pattern does

seem to support higher end PoPs than the GFS-based statistical

guidance baseline. 



With all the expected convective activity, this will limit MaxTs

to the lower 90s, which will provide relief from the recent

stretch of much above normal temperatures. 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Sunday through Wednesday)

Issued at 226 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Though the upper low across the Southeast will gradually weaken

and lose definition, it'll be replaced with a longwave trough

across the Eastern CONUS as a ridge amplifies across the Four

Corners region out west by the end of the period. This will lead

to an extended period of southwesterly flow which is often quite

favorable for widespread convective activity and thus the higher

PoPs in the forecast that are 15-30 percent above climatology.

Note that southwesterly flow days, especially those later in the

period that have mean 1000-700 mb flow in excess of 10 kt tend to

feature earlier starts to convective initiation due to faster

inland penetration of the sea breeze fronts. 



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 226 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail throughout the

TAF period. Some scattered showers and/or thunderstorms may impact

VLD/TLH later this afternoon and early evening where the overcast

cloud deck is beginning to slowly dissipate. Any activity is

expected to wind down after sunset.



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 226 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



A high pressure ridge over the waters today will drift south of 

the waters on Friday. On its north side, gentle to occasionally 

moderate southwest and west breezes will develop on Friday and 

continue through Monday. Otherwise, thunderstorm coverage will be 

abundant at times, especially during the late night and morning 

hours, bringing the threat of lightning, gusty winds, and 

waterspouts.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 226 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



The air mass will become a little more moist each day through this

weekend into next week, and a weak area of low pressure will pinch

off and sit over Georgia starting Friday. This will set up a

pattern full of summer thunderstorms and pockets of heavy rain

over the next several days.



&&



.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 226 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Widespread rainfall over the next several days is expected to add

up to 4-5 inches of rain across portions of North Florida with

lesser amounts up into Georgia. Of course, this is over a broad

area, as localized amounts could be much heavier. In this sort of

wet pattern, individual thunderstorms could lead to flash

flooding, especially in urban environments given the high rainfall

rates. River flooding, however, is not expected. 



&&



.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...



Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always 

encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they 

occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   72  91  73  91 /  40  60  30  90 

Panama City   74  89  76  90 /  40  60  40  80 

Dothan        71  91  71  91 /  30  60  30  70 

Albany        71  92  71  92 /  30  60  40  70 

Valdosta      71  93  72  93 /  40  70  30  80 

Cross City    70  92  72  92 /  50  60  30  80 

Apalachicola  76  87  78  88 /  30  50  30  70 



&&



.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.

GA...None.

AL...None.

GM...None.

&&



$$



NEAR TERM...Oliver

SHORT TERM...Godsey

LONG TERM....Godsey

AVIATION...Oliver

MARINE...Godsey

FIRE WEATHER...DVD

HYDROLOGY...Godsey

