FNAK71 PAFC 261318

FWSAER



Spot Forecast for Nelchina Glacier Fire...Alaska Coastal Dispatch Center

National Weather Service Anchorage AK

518 AM AKDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 AKDT on June 26. 

.DISCUSSION...



Although precipitation chances are low, showers may develop over 

nearby higher elevations and drift over the area over the next 

couple days. Sustained winds are expected to be less than 10 mph 

throughout the day, but gusts up to 10 to 15 mph will be possible 

later this afternoon and evening. Winds are expected to become 

southwesterly around 5 mph this evening and will likely last 

throughout the overnight. Friday will be similar to today but on 

Friday evening, southwesterly could become a stronger up to 10 to 

15 mph. This transition may not be as smooth, and could be a 

little more abrupt as the dominant wind flow along the terrain 

transitions Friday evening. 



Taking a glimpse ahead, the potential for additional moisture 

with wetting rain is increasing for this weekend.





.REST OF TODAY...



Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming 

                    mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of 

                    rain early in the morning, then isolated rain 

                    showers early in the afternoon. 

CWR.................0 percent. 

Chance of pcpn......20 percent. 

Max temperature.....Around 59. 

Min humidity........37 percent. 

Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph 

                    late in the afternoon. 

Mixing height.......5200 ft AGL. 

Transport winds.....Southwest around 5 mph shifting to the 

                    southeast 3 to 7 mph in the late morning and 

                    afternoon. 



TIME (AKDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 

Sky (%).........70  70  70  70  70  46  46  46  49  49  

Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH ISO ISO ISO         

Weather type....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RW  RW  RW          

CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   

Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  10  10  

Temp............44  46  49  52  54  56  56  59  59  59  

RH..............77  71  63  58  50  46  44  40  39  37  

20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  

20 FT wind spd..2   2   1   1   1   2   2   2   5   5   

20 FT wind gust.7   7   6   6   6   7   7   7   8   8   

Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 1.7 4.0 4.0 4.0 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 

Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  

Transp wind spd.5   5   3   3   3   6   6   6   7   7   



.TONIGHT...



Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming 

                    mostly cloudy (60-80 percent). Slight chance of 

                    rain after 3 am. 

CWR.................0 percent. 

Chance of pcpn......20 percent. 

Min temperature.....Around 43. 

Max humidity........75 percent. 

Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 5 mph early in the 

                    evening becoming light. 

Mixing height.......400 ft AGL. 

Transport winds.....Southeast around 7 mph shifting to the west 5 

                    to 6 mph. 



TIME (AKDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 

Sky (%).........49  54  54  54  51  51  51  45  45  45  70  70  

Weather cov.....                                        SCH SCH 

Weather type....                                        RN  RN  

CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   

Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  20  20  

Temp............58  58  56  53  50  48  46  45  44  43  43  43  

RH..............37  41  46  51  59  64  68  71  73  75  74  75  

20 FT wind dir..SE  S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  

20 FT wind spd..5   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   

20 FT wind gust.8   6   6   6   7   7   7   6   6   6   3   3   

Mix hgt (kft)...5.2 3.4 3.4 3.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 

Transp wind dir.SE  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  

Transp wind spd.7   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   



.FRIDAY...



Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of 

                    rain early in the morning. 

CWR.................0 percent. 

Chance of pcpn......20 percent. 

Max temperature.....Around 62. 

Min humidity........37 percent. 

Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. 

Mixing height.......5100 ft AGL. 

Transport winds.....Southwest around 5 mph shifting to the east 3 

                    to 6 mph. 



TIME (AKDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 

Sky (%).........70  70  70  70  68  68  68  64  64  64  60  60  

Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH                                 

Weather type....RN  RN  RN  RN                                  

CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   

Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  20  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  

Temp............43  44  46  49  52  55  58  60  61  61  62  62  

RH..............75  74  71  65  60  54  48  44  42  40  37  39  

20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  NE  NE  NE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   

20 FT wind spd..2   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   

20 FT wind gust.3   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   

Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.1 5.1 

Transp wind dir.SW  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  

Transp wind spd.5   3   3   3   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   



$$



Forecaster...Rux

Requested by...Daria Lomasney

Type of request...WILDFIRE

.TAG 2516687.0/AER

.DELDT 06/26/25

.FormatterVersion 2.0.0

.EMAIL akcdc@firenet.gov

