FXUS63 KGLD 261705

AFDGLD



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Goodland KS

1105 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Mild weather is forecast today with clear skies and lighter

  winds. There could be a few sub-severe storms this afternoon

  and evening.



- Another round of potentially severe storms are expected Friday

  afternoon into the evening hours.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 1220 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



The remainder of the early morning hours are expected to see storm 

activity lower and push east of the area as the air becomes more 

stable, outflows push off to the east, and the upper shortwave also 

shifts east. With the remnants of showers and storms upstream in 

Central Colorado, skies are forecast to remain cloudy through the 

night and help keep temperatures generally in the 60s.



For today, a fairly mild day is forecast for the area as the upper 

pattern over the area is forecast to be somewhat zonal, keeping the 

flow weak. With the weak flow, winds are forecast to be lighter 

around 5 to 15 mph tomorrow. Sunny skies are forecast for the area 

due to marginally drier air that is forecast to push into the area, 

allowing temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 80s.



Late in the afternoon and evening, there is the possibility of a few 

storms as guidance hints at a very weak upper low upstream of the 

area with a weak surface low pushing through the area. On top of 

causing the winds to slowly shift to out of the east during the day, 

these features may allow some storms to develop either over the 

higher terrain in Eastern Colorado or along convergence boundaries. 

With the drier air in place, storm coverage and intensity are 

forecast to be fairly low, potentially with no storms forming at all. 

If storms did form while the surface low pulled in some more 

moisture, we could see storms pop up across more of the area along 

outflow boundaries. Even then, storms would be unlikely to be severe 

or long lived.



Tonight, some cloud cover could linger if storms managed to form, 

but otherwise mostly clear skies are forecast. Winds are also 

forecast to be light as the pressure gradient weakens. With this, 

low temperatures should cool to near dewpoints around 60

degrees.



&&



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1255 PM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025



A weak shortwave trough sliding through the lee side of the

Rockies and a weak surface low over southeast Wyoming and

western Nebraska will tap into a marginally unstable atmosphere

across the western and northern portions of the CWA to produce

some isolated convective activity late Friday afternoon into

Friday evening along a weak dry line boundary. Any storms that

form should be very short-lived and isolated as a lack of

moisture and limited deep layer forcing will keep updrafts from

sustaining themselves for any long period of time. Temperatures

will also be significantly warmer on Friday as the drier airmass

easily heats up into the low to mid 90s.  



The heat will be on this Saturday as a weak shortwave ridge

builds over the area. Increased subsidence will limit cloud

development and allow highs to climb into the upper 90s or a

good 10 degrees above average. Although overall rain chances

will be low, there could be enough heating to overcome a weak

capping inversion aloft by the late afternoon and evening that

will support an isolated thunderstorm. If storms fire up, they

could produce some gusty winds due to the dry airmass in place

aloft.  



Heading into next week from Sunday through Wednesday, a 

deepening longwave ridge over the western third of the CONUS 

will allow a deep layer northwest flow regime to take hold in 

the upper levels. Unfortunately, this sets up a decent pattern 

for a series of mesoscale convective complexes to form over 

eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska and then sweep to the 

southeast across the forecast area each evening as the system 

follows the theta e axis. Confidence on this scenario is a bit 

lower than average, but is something we need to monitor over the

next couple of days as both a heavy rainfall and severe weather

threat could accompany any MCS that forms. The northwest flow 

pattern will allow for cooler temperatures to filter in with 

highs cooling back into the mid 80s for next week.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1103 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



A surface high pressure system is currently located over the

region. This high will gradually shift to the east through the

TAF period, and this will result in winds changing from a 

northerly to a southerly component tonight into tomorrow.

Otherwise, clear skies and VFR conditions are expected at both

GLD and MCK through tomorrow afternoon.  There is a low risk of

a thunderstorm developing late this afternoon, but the threat is

too limited to include in the forecast at this time. 



&&



.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

CO...None.

NE...None.



&&



$$



AVIATION...Grigsby

