FXUS62 KCHS 261714

AFDCHS



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Charleston SC

114 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

A hot and humid air mass will remain across the region into

early next week. A slow moving cold front may push over the

region by the middle of next week. 



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Early this afternoon: No change to the forecast. Previous

discussion continues below. 



Late this morning: Aloft, the forecast area will be solidly

under the influence of the circulation around the upper low

centered along the east coast of FL. At the surface, the

subtropical high will remain the primary feature. Overall, a

much different day than the last couple of days. The overnight

convection sufficiently overturned the atmosphere and we are 

seeing this effect in temperatures so far this morning. Most 

places are only in the low to mid 80s which is 5-8 degrees below

where we were 24 hours ago. Also, dewpoints are in the upper 

60s in many places, allowing it to feel considerably less 

uncomfortable. That should be the story of the day, still hot 

but less humid and lower heat index values as a result. We 

should still see low to mid 90s just about everywhere but heat 

index values should top our right around or just over 100 

degrees. Therefore, no Heat Advisory needed. Concerning 

thunderstorm chances, model soundings reveal relatively warm 

profiles with decreased lapse rates and considerably less 

instability than we saw yesterday. But with the aforementioned 

upper low nearby, isolated to scattered showers and 

thunderstorms are expected this afternoon generally away from 

the coast. The overall severe risk is low, though you can never 

completely rule out a strong to marginally severe storm where 

outflow boundaries interact to enhance an updraft. 



Tonight: A few showers/thunderstorms could linger into early 

evening hours with h5 shortwave energy traversing the local area

aloft and modestly unstable conditions persisting, but activity

should generally wane with the loss of diurnal heating, remain 

sub-severe, and drift further west out of the local area with a 

sea breeze. Winds should decouple shortly thereafter, leading to

light/calm winds away from the beaches for a bulk of the 

overnight period. Temps should dip into the upper 60s/lower 70s 

well inland to mid- upper 70s near the coast.



&&



.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

An upper-lvl ridge situated over the western Atlantic will 

continue to breakdown throughout the weekend. Simultaneously, a 

broad low over the Deep South will continue to advect rich 

moisture into the region with PWAT values ranging from 1.75 to 

2.0 inches. This will be more than enough moisture to spark up 

some showers and thunderstorms each afternoon as the sea breeze 

pushes inland. Due to temperatures in the low to mid 90s and 

dewpoints in the low to mid 70s throughout the weekend, moderate

instability should develop and it's possible to see strong to 

severe thunderstorms each afternoon. In addition, SPC has 

highlighted the far interior Southeast Georgia counties in a 

marginal risk for Friday with the primary concern being locally 

damaging wind gusts. Overnight lows will remain mild and only 

dip into the low to mid 70s (with warmer temperatures closer to 

the beaches).



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

This current pattern will be slow to change as this weak upper-

lvl low continues to meander across the Deep South before 

eventually dissipating early next week. With an expansive field 

of moisture remaining over the Southeast combined with high 

temperatures in the low to mid 90s, moderate instability (~2000 

J/kg) could very well build each afternoon. Ensembles continue 

to indicate daily rain chances through the period with storm 

activity gradually increasing each day. By the middle of next 

week, recent guidance indicates a slow-moving cold front may 

glide through the region. Thus, thunderstorms could easily 

develop along this boundary if it makes it this far into the 

region. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal for this 

time of the year.



&&



.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV

through 18z Friday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are

expected this afternoon but should develop and remain inland of

the terminals. 



Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR will mainly prevail throughout 

the period, however brief flight restrictions are possible 

within showers and thunderstorms that develop in the afternoon 

and/or evening.



&&



.MARINE...

Today and Tonight: Local waters will remain along the western 

periphery of an Atlantic high while weak troughing develops well

inland. Conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory 

thresholds during this time frame, but a broad mid-upper lvl low

could spawn showers and thunderstorms across local waters 

during the day and night, producing gusty winds and elevated 

seas. Outside convection, southwest winds in the 5-10 kt range 

will gradually turn south and peak between 10-15 kt this 

afternoon, and perhaps gust a bit higher along the immediate 

coast where a sea breeze develops and shifts inland. Winds 

should tip back more south-southwest by late evening, then 

remain around 10 kt or less during the night. Seas will 

generally range between 1-2 ft today, then gradually build 1 ft 

overnight.



Friday through Monday: Expect generally south-southeasterly 

winds at 5 to 10 kt to prevail throughout the period. It could 

become a bit gusty each afternoon with gusts up to 15 to 20 kt 

as the seabreeze pushes inland (gusts strongest across the 

immediate coastline and the Charleston Harbor). Seas will be 2 

to 3 ft. Otherwise, no marine concerns expected.



Rip Currents: A 1.5 ft, 8 second swell will impact the beaches 

along with a 10-15 kt onshore wind today. Given these conditions

are similar to the last couple days with several rip currents 

reported along Tybee Island, GA, a Moderate Risk for rip 

currents is in place along Georgia beaches through this evening.



&&



.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GA...None.

SC...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



NEAR TERM...BSH/DPB

SHORT TERM...Dennis

LONG TERM...Dennis

AVIATION...BSH/Dennis

MARINE...Dennis/DPB

