FXUS61 KALY 261926

AFDALY



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Albany NY

326 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

Chances of rain and cooler temperatures are expected to close out 

the work week, with warmer air and storms briefly possible 

Saturday. Drier, but warmer weather returns for Sunday, with 

hotter and humid conditions for Monday. Another round of showers

and storms arrives with a cold front Tuesday.



&&



.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

Key Message: 



- Scattered to numerous rain showers tapering off tonight with 

  cooler temperatures



Discussion: 



18z surface analysis showed a stationary front stretching across the 

central Great lakes into the Mid Atlantic. Dense overcast with 

scattered to widespread rain showers were ongoing along and to the 

north of the front across the Southern Tier into western New

England. This will remain the case heading into the late afternoon

and evening as several weak shortwave impulses track just to 

the north of the area, with coverage expected to become more 

isolated to scattered tonight. Can't rule out a rumble of 

thunder given low levels of MUCAPE and elevated instability, 

though the greatest threat will remain to the south and west of 

the region. Outside of rain showers, skies will remain partly to

mostly cloudy. 



Weak easterly flow with a surface high building across New England 

will allow overnight lows to drop into the low 50s (terrain) to near 

60 (valleys), despite the cloud cover.



&&



.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

Key Message: 



- Dry for most Friday into Saturday morning with increasing chances 

  of showers and storms areawide beginning Saturday afternoon



Discussion: 



Aforementioned high pressure that will be centered just north of New 

England will slowly begin to track northeast during the daytime 

Friday. This high and cool, dry east flow should be enough to help 

keep much of the area dry through the daytime, though isolated to 

scattered rain showers will be possible mainly in the higher terrain 

of the ADKs nearer to the mid-level frontal boundary. Temperatures 

will be a little cooler compared to today, with PM highs ranging 

from the low 60s (terrain) to low 70s (valleys). Some across the 

highest terrain may not even see 60.



As the surface high departs to the northeast, a surface low and 

trailing shortwave aloft will approach from the Great Lakes. The 

approach of the low will help lift the stationary front to our south 

back north across the region as a warm front Friday night, ushering 

in increasing amounts of moisture and lift to the region. This will 

result in shower and storm chances (40-60%) mainly across our far 

north into the North Country and US/Canada border, with lesser 

values to the south. Lows Friday night will be somewhat milder in 

the 50s to mid 60s, with highs Saturday back near to normal in the 

70s to low 80s (though there remains some uncertainty in this value 

depending on cloud cover and how far north the warm front can get, 

so expect additional adjustments).



Attention then turns to the cold front that will be attached to the 

surface low, which is progged to track across the region Saturday 

afternoon and evening. Overall system dynamics remain unimpressive 

with this morning's model guidance as the main shortwave/closed low 

aloft and surface low will be displaced well to the north of the 

region, and uncertainties in how warm we will get also make 

confidence in severe weather chances low. However, those who can get 

into the warm sector (best thinking right now is south of the 

Capital District into the Mid-Hudson Valley) could see a risk of PM 

showers and thunderstorms, with a low potential for some to be 

strong. SPC maintains a general thunder risk at this time. Storms 

will also be capable of producing torrential rain given high 

dewpoints nearing 70 degrees and PWATs in the 1.50-2.00" range.



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Key Messages:



 - Increasing heat and humidity early near week with peak heat 

   indices nearing 95 Monday.



 - Another round of showers and storms Tuesday with a cold front



Discussion:



Leftover showers and storms from Saturday night will exit by early 

Sunday morning, with most seeing dry conditions and near normal 

temperatures with high pressure passing to the south during the 

daytime. For Monday, renewed southerly flow behind the departing 

high pressure will send a warm front back north across the region. 

Low level temperatures will be warmer this go-around with 925-850 

hPa values around 15-20 degrees C, allowing PM highs to climb well 

into the 80s areawide (some near 90 in the western Mohawk Valley). 

With dewpoints rising into the upper 60s/ to lower 70s, peak heat 

indices of around 90-95F are expected in lower elevations. 



Another shortwave and cold front will arrive across the region 

Monday night into Tuesday, resulting in another round of showers and 

storms for the region. Depending on the timing of the cold front, 

some stronger storms may occur on Tuesday if the front moves through 

later in the day. Confidence remains low at this time on the severe 

weather potential. Temperatures will be slightly cooler Tuesday, but 

will remain warm, humid and above normal despite the higher precip 

chances. 



Drier conditions should prevail for much of the region 

by mid week with weak high pressure following the cold front. 

However, guidance does hint at potential for low chances 

(10-30%) of PM rain showers and storms with weak shortwave 

impulses embedded in northwesterly flow behind the front. 

Regardless of the storm chances, it will be noticeably less 

humid with temperatures back to near normal in the upper 70s to 

low 80s.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 

We start the TAF period with scattered rain showers across 

KGFL, KPSF, and KALB airfields. Kept mention of light rainfall 

in TEMPO groups for these TAF sites as rain showers quickly move

through and become more vicinity showers through 00z. For KALB 

through 19z, kept mention of the IFR conditions with the passing

shower in a TEMPO as conditions should improve once the shower 

moves through. Otherwise, VFR conditions should continue through

tonight with periods of MVFR conditions after 6z and kept 

mention of overnight shower activity in PROB30 group for KALB. 

For KGFL, kept mention for tomorrow morning rain shower activity

in PROB30 groups as confidence is low to mention in the 

prevailing. Winds continue to be northerly this afternoon 

becoming light and variable for the overnight hours into 

tomorrow morning. 



Outlook...



Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

Saturday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.



&&



.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...None.

NY...None.

MA...None.

VT...None.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...Speck

NEAR TERM...Speck

SHORT TERM...Speck

LONG TERM...Speck

AVIATION...Webb

