FXUS63 KGLD 261956

AFDGLD



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Goodland KS

156 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Another round of potentially severe storms are expected Friday

  afternoon into the evening hours.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 127 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



A shortwave upper level ridge will continue to build over the

area tonight. This ridge will keep a drier and more stable

airmass in place, and overall rain chances will be extremely

limited this afternoon through tonight. At most, an isolated

thunderstorm may move into one of our Colorado counties from the

Front Range around sunset, but the storms should be weakening 

as temperatures cool with the loss of daytime heating and the

storms move into a drier and more stable environment. Any cloud

cover associated with a storm will dissipate by late this

evening, and the forecast calls for clear skies, light winds,

and mild temperatures tonight. Lows will be near average for

this time of year in the upper 50s and lower 60s.  



&&



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 127 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Although the shortwave upper level ridge will be the dominant

feature across the forecast area on Friday, there are

indications that weak low pressure area could form on the lee

side of the Rockies tomorrow. This low will induce the

development of a dry line, and this dry line could serve as a

focusing mechanism for some isolated convective activity in

the late afternoon hours. A review of model soundings for Friday

afternoon and evening indicate favorable conditions for both

large hail and damaging wind gusts from any severe storms that

form. However, the overall severe threat will remain limited as

available moisture is somewhat limited. Temperatures will be

warmer tomorrow due to the influence of the 500mb ridge axis

with readings climbing into the mid 90s. Any storms will quickly

dissipate after sunset, and a dry and clear night is anticipated

for Friday night. Lows will once again cool toward more normal

levels in the upper 50s and lower 60s.  



Saturday will be the hottest and driest day of the long term

forecast as the upper level ridge is in full control of the

area. Highs will climb into the upper 90s, a good 10 degrees

above average, as deep layer subsidence takes hold. Some low PoP

is in the forecast for the northern third of the forecast area,

but confidence is lower than average of seeing any rain actually

develop as the greatest forcing will remain well north of the

area in the Dakotas. Saturday night will once again see clear

skies and near average low.  



A much more amplified upper level pattern will begin to develop

on Sunday and will remain in place through next Thursday. The

end result will be a strong longwave ridge axis across the

western third of the CONUS and a broad longwave trough east of

the Mississippi River. This will place the region beneath a

persistent and deep northwest flow regime throughout the

entirety of next week. A series of weak upper level impulses

rounding the top of the ridge will slide through the area next

week, and this impulses will provide enough upper level forcing

to promote some scattered convective activity each day. The

convection will be very diurnal in nature and will tend to fire

up along the dry line over eastern Colorado in the late

afternoon and early evening hours. The storms will then spread

east through the evening hours before they dissipate closer to

midnight. Although the threat of severe storms is low, there

could be a few strong to severe storms each day with hail and

gusty winds being the main threat.  Temperatures will be 

slightly cooler as the northwest flow pattern takes hold with 

readings closer to average in the mid to upper 80s. Lows will be

near to slightly warmer than average with readings ranging from

the low to mid 60s. 



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 127 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



A surface high pressure system is currently located over the

region. This high will gradually shift to the east through the

TAF period, and this will result in winds changing from a 

northerly to a southerly component tonight into tomorrow.

Otherwise, clear skies and VFR conditions are expected at both

GLD and MCK through tomorrow afternoon.  There is a low risk of

a thunderstorm developing late this afternoon, but the threat is

too limited to include in the forecast at this time. 



&&



.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

CO...None.

NE...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Grigsby

LONG TERM...Grigsby

AVIATION...Grigsby

