FXUS62 KTAE 261809

AFDTAE



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tallahassee FL

209 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New AVIATION...



.NEAR TERM...

(Today and tonight)

Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



At 315 AM EDT, the line of thunderstorms moving southwest across

south Georgia is showing a decided weakening trend. Nonetheless,

much of the region will get some rainfall and a little thunder

through this morning.



The upper low over east-central Florida this morning will move

north-northwest up the FL East Coast today. As the center of this

feature gets closer, flow aloft will weaken, with deep-layer shear

weakening to 10 knots or less by this evening. So that will

eliminate the organizing effect of shear, meaning that

thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will lack the

organization and severity of the thunderstorms on Wednesday. 



CAMS guidance shows that the air mass around midday will be worked

over after morning convection. However, the SE Big Bend and

northern Nature Coast will have missed out. That is where the most

unstable air will be this afternoon, and the greatest coverage of

late afternoon/early evening thunder will be down that way. 

Indeed, look for thunderstorms to zipper north along the Nature 

Coast seabreeze, possibly making it to the TLH area and south- 

central Georgia early this evening.



&&



.SHORT TERM and LONG TERM...

(Friday through next Wednesday) 

Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Friday through next Wednesday looks wetter than normal for this 

time of year.



The upper low that is currently observed over east-central Florida

will lift northwest into Georgia and weaken some by Friday. It

will morph into a baggy trough across the region this weekend,

while moving little as it remains disconnected from mid-latitude 

steering flow. By the middle of next week, it could either remain 

a stationary trough axis, or it may evolve into a mere weakness in

the subtropical ridge. 



Whatever its form, proximity of this nearly stationary feature 

near or just north of the forecast area will keep the pattern 

wetter than normal. A richly moist air mass will collect near the

northeast Gulf Coast, and some cyclonic curvature to the weak 

flow could lend itself to slow- moving pockets or bands of heavy 

rain. 



One area to watch for heavy rain from this weekend onward will be

the SE Big Bend and northern Nature Coast. Weak southwest-west 

cyclonically curved flow aloft in combination with Precipitable 

Water (PW) values in excess of a very moist 2 inches can bring 

large areas of heavy rain to the northeast Gulf each night and 

morning. The westerly flow is then prone to pushing the heavy rain

each morning eastward across Taylor, Dixie, and Lafayette 

Counties. Day after day of this setup can add up over time and

bring impressive multi-day rainfall, plus the risk of flooding. 

Some folks refer to this setup as the Steinhatchee Special. The

18z GEFS plume diagram over the next week shows a most likely 

rainfall range near Steinhatchee of 2-5 inches, with 90th 

percentile totals of 6-7 inches. Of course, this comes from a 

coarser global scale ensemble which may fail to account for 

smaller-scale bands of heavy rain. The disclaimer at this time 

range is that the effectiveness of this pattern will depend on 

what form the upper low takes and how strong the westerly flow 

across the northeast Gulf remains.



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 146 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail throughout the

TAF period. Some scattered showers and/or thunderstorms may impact

VLD/TLH later this afternoon and early evening where the overcast

cloud deck is beginning to slowly dissipate. Any activity is

expected to wind down after sunset.



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



A high pressure ridge axis over the waters today will drift south

of the waters on Friday. On its north side, gentle to

occasionally moderate southwest and west breezes will develop on

Friday and continue through Monday. Otherwise, thunderstorm

coverage will be abundant at times, especially during the late

night and morning hours, bringing the threat of lightning, gusty

winds, and waterspouts.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



The air mass will become a little more moist each day through this

weekend into next week, and a weak area of low pressure will pinch

off and sit over Georgia starting Friday. This will set up a

pattern full of summer thunderstorms and pockets of heavy rain. 

Otherwise, the return of thunderstorms is a sign that the recent

spell of hot dry weather has ended.



&&



.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Isolated flash flooding will be a concern for much of the next

week. Starting Friday, the pattern will feature a nearly

stationary and weak upper low over Georgia, and a very moist air

mass centered near the coast. Precipitable Water values will 

creep up a little each day, and they will be well in excess of 2 

inches closer to the coast by the middle of next week. This

pattern will favor slow-moving pockets or bands of heavy rain. 



One area to watch this weekend and next week will be the southeast

Big Bend, specifically Taylor, Dixie, and Lafayette Counties.

During the summer, weak westerly flow in the base of an upper 

trough favors heavy rain over the northeast Gulf late each night,

with the heavy rain then pushing onshore the northern Nature 

Coast each morning. If this pattern repeats itself for several 

days, then multi-day rainfall totals could locally enhance the 

flooding threat. Near Steinhatchee, the GEFS ensemble shows a 90th

percentile rain total of 6-7 inches through next Wednesday. 



&&



.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...



Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always 

encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they 

occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   72  91  73  91 /  40  60  30  90 

Panama City   74  89  76  90 /  40  60  40  80 

Dothan        71  91  71  91 /  30  60  30  70 

Albany        71  92  71  92 /  30  60  40  70 

Valdosta      71  93  72  93 /  40  70  30  80 

Cross City    70  92  72  92 /  50  60  30  80 

Apalachicola  76  87  78  88 /  30  50  30  70 



&&



.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.

GA...None.

AL...None.

GM...None.

&&



$$



NEAR TERM...Haner

SHORT TERM...Haner

LONG TERM....Haner

AVIATION...Oliver

MARINE...Haner

FIRE WEATHER...Haner

HYDROLOGY...Haner

