FXUS61 KAKQ 261846

AFDAKQ



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Wakefield VA

246 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

A large ridge remains across the Eastern CONUS, bringing very hot 

conditions to the region through the week. Low-end chances for 

afternoon showers and thunderstorms make a return through the 

weekend into early next week.



&&



.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

As of 245 PM EDT Thursday...



- Heat Advisories in effect for the entire forecast area today.



- Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop today, with more 

  coverage than previous days. A few storms could be strong to 

  severe.



Afternoon sfc analysis indicates a large area of high pressure over 

much of the SE CONUS still centered SW of the local area. A backdoor 

front located over the northern Mid Atlantic is sagging south toward 

the area. The UL ridge that has been in place for several days 

continues to slowly weaken. Temps as of latest obs are in the low to 

mid 90s. Heat indices are generally in the 103-107 range and the 

Heat Advisory across the area will continue until 7pm tonight. Lows 

tonight will be in the low-mid 70s. 



Regarding convection for this afternoon into this evening, we are 

looking at a pretty similar set up to yesterday. Already seeing a 

few storms pop up on radar and there's a fairly robust cu field 

across much of the area on satellite. Once again, there is no 

shortage of instability with SBCAPE between 3000-4000 J/kg on 

mesoanalysis (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE). There's not really any shear 

to speak of and weak flow aloft, which may serve to limit storm 

strength. However, DCAPE is sitting at 1000-1500 J/kg, so any 

stronger storms that do develop will have the potential for damaging 

wind gusts. The SPC did add a slight risk for areas NW of Richmond 

with the mid-day update. Elsewhere, a marginal risk remains in 

place. With plenty of moisture and storms motions slower than a 

snail, heavy rain could lead to isolated istances of flooding 

(Marginal ERO from WPC). Isolated storms this afternoon likely 

increase in coverage across the N/NW this evening (40-50% PoPs). 

Precip mostly tapers off after midnight, but could see some 

lingering showers across the far N into tomorrow morning as the 

front drops into the area. 



&&



.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

As of 347 AM EDT Thursday... 



Key Messages:



- Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected Friday afternoon.

  A few storms could be strong to severe.



- Backdoor cold front to bring some relief from the heat to the

  NE counties and MD Eastern Shore counties.



The backdoor cold front will continue to drop southwards through 

Friday, finally settling across the MD Eastern Shore counties and 

our northeast VA counties. While most of the forecast area will 

still experience temperatures in the lower 90s, the front will bring 

some relief to our NE counties and temperatures will be in the low 

to mid 80s. Dew points will subtly drop as well, leading to slightly 

less humid conditions in these areas. Heat indices will likely fall 

within in the 95-103F range, so a Heat Advisory may not be needed 

Friday. With the boundary lingering through Friday afternoon, this 

will once again provide a subtle lifting mechanism for storm 

development and afternoon/evening scattered thunderstorms will be 

possible. Some storms may once again be strong to severe, so SPC has 

most of the area in a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather on 

Friday, with damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail remaining 

the main threat. There also remains a threat for isolated instances 

of flash flooding, so WPC has placed a majority of the forecast area 

in a Marginal ERO on Friday. By Saturday, the front will start to 

lift back to the north, so while afternoon/evening thunderstorms arestill possible, they will not be as high in coverage as Friday. With 

the upper ridge still across the region, above normal temperatures 

are expected again on Saturday with highs in the lower to mid 90s. 

Heat indices will range between 97-104F, though some areas could see 

a brief period of 105F+ heat indices.



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday... 



Key Messages:



- Hot weather continues into early next week.



- An unsettled pattern develops with daily, diurnal chances for 

  scattered storms.



The weakened upper ridge will remain across the area Sunday into 

early next week, leading to the continuation of above normal 

temperatures. While temperatures will not be quite as high as what 

we saw this past week, highs will still reach the low to mid 90s 

Sunday through Tuesday, with heat indices between 98-103F. We will 

continue to monitor any trends in the heat, as subtle differences in 

the temperatures and dew points could lead to some areas reaching 

Heat Advisory criteria. A cold front will approach the region on 

Tuesday, with moisture pooling ahead of it and PWs approaching 2.0"+ 

later this weekend into early next week which may result in a heavy 

rain threat. The unsettled weather pattern will continue, with 

isolated to scattered convection each afternoon and evening Sunday 

through Tuesday. The aforementioned front is progged to move through 

Tuesday into Wednesday, though it looks like it might linger across 

NE NC through Thursday, bringing higher rain chances to the southern 

half of the forecast area on Wednesday and Thursday. Confidence in 

the exact placement of the front is low as it is well into the 

extended forecast, so we will continue to fine tune our forecast as 

this becomes more clear.



&&



.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

As of 135 PM EDT Thursday...



VFR conditions prevail this afternoon under scattered cloud

cover. As the afternoon progresses, expecting a few

thunderstorms to pop up, increasing in coverage this afternoon

across NW portion of the forecast area. RIC and SBY are most

likely to be impacted by convection. Went with prob30s rather

than tempos since coverage near the terminals should be

scattered in nature. Any storm that does form will likely

contain heavy rain and may have strong winds. Later tonight into

early tomorrow, a backdoor front sags over the area. MVFR, then

IFR, CIGs are expected at SBY once the front moves S of it 

(~09-12z). Depending on how far south the front makes it, could

potentially see lower CIGs at RIC, but confidence is low. 





Outlook: VFR conditions are primarily expected later Friday 

into next week as the front lifts back north. However, late 

afternoon/evening storms are possible every day into early next 

week.



&&



.MARINE...

As of 245 AM EDT Thursday...



Key Messages:



- Benign marine conditions continue through the remainder of the 

week and into the weekend.

 

Favorable marine conditions will continue through the weekend as 

high pressure remains dominant across the region. The wind direction 

will be influenced by the sea breeze during the day as the land 

heats up, then will become generally variable overnight. As the high 

shifts offshore through the end of the week and into the weekend, 

the synoptic winds become predominantly southerly areawide. Sea 

breezes may still make an appearance near the shore in the afternoon 

hours, which would shift the wind to the E or SE. A few wind gusts 

to 20-25 kt are possible by the weekend or early next week, but 

predictability is low at this range given the effects of potential 

convection. Isolated to scattered storms are also possible in the 

afternoons and evenings today through the weekend, which could bring 

strong wind gusts to the waters, with winds and seas higher within 

any convection.Seas in the Ocean remain around 2 ft for the week, increasing to 2-3 

ft by Friday. Waves in the Bay and rivers of 1-2 ft or less 

through the period.



&&



.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MD...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>024.

NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-

     030>032-102.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for NCZ014>017-031-

     032-102.

VA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060>062-

     064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for VAZ080>083-

     088>090-092-093-095>098-512>516-523>525.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...AJB/RMM

NEAR TERM...AC

SHORT TERM...NB

LONG TERM...NB

AVIATION...AC

MARINE...AJB/SW

