FXUS64 KSHV 261759

AFDSHV



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Shreveport LA

1259 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New AVIATION...



.SHORT TERM...

(Thursday through Friday)

Issued at 124 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Persistence continues to be the best rule of thumb weather wise,

at least during the short term as our region remains under weak

high pressure ridging aloft with the center of the ridge remaining

across the Ohio and Tenn Valleys. Will await diurnal heating for

the development of isolated to scattered storms today but the

difference today is that drier PWATs have moved into our region

from the east. PWATs near or below 1.5 inches encompasses most of

our region attm with the exception of our far SW zones and our 

far eastern zones. As we go through the day, these two areas 

should see the best storm coverage and therefore, is the dividing 

line between isolated convection and scattered convection. 



Likewise for Friday, higher PWATs should be across our far 

northwest zones in advance of a weak upper level shear axis across

the Southern Plains and across our southeast half in advance of 

an inverted upper level trough across the Southeast U.S. and this

is where we will place diurnally driven pops.  



Concerning temperatures, did not stray far from NBM high temps

today and Friday and we should see just enough mixing down of

afternoon dewpoints a degree or two to keep Heat Advisory worthy

heat indices at bay. Still cannot rule out a few locations 

meeting or exceeding the 105 degree threshold but widespread 

critical indices are not likely across our region through at least

Friday.



13



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Friday Night through Thursday)

Issued at 124 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



For the upcoming weekend, downstream ridging weakens and appears

to relocate across our region of the country albeit in a very weak

state. This ridge tries to very slowly retrograde westward in the

early and middle part of next week and that would introduce weak,

upper forcing to the north and east of this ridge axis. The end

result would be increasing rain chances, especially in the Tue-Thu

timeframe. 



For now, will follow the NBM's lead of gradually increasing pops

through the end of the Long Term as this trend is highly dependent

on the retrograding ridge. Did not stray far from NBM temps but

higher rain chances mid to late next week would obviously play a

hand in tempering temperatures which would buck the NBM's

temperature trend next week. 



13



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



For the 26/18Z TAF period, cu field has lifted to VFR status early

this afternoon across our airspace with some spotty convection

beginning to pop up near KLFK. This trend should continue through

the remainder of the afternoon across Deep East TX into parts of

NCntrl LA and SCntrl AR so have included VCTS at KELD/KMLU/KLFK.

Any lingering convection should diminish by 27/00Z or shortly

thereafter with some convective debris cirrus clouds this evening

before diminishing. Any returning low stratus on Friday morning

should be confined to KTYR and possibly KLFK while the remaining

terminals are expected to maintain VFR conditions. Light southerly

winds between 3-6 kts on average will prevail through the period.



/19/



&&



.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Issued at 124 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



While diurnally driven convection will likely result in thunderstorms

capable of producing strong wind gusts, the need for Spotter 

activation resulting from widespread severe thunderstorms is not 

likely through tonight. 



13



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SHV  76  96  77  97 /  20   0   0  10 

MLU  74  95  76  96 /  20  10   0  10 

DEQ  71  92  72  93 /  10  10   0  10 

TXK  75  96  76  97 /   0  10   0  10 

ELD  72  95  74  95 /  10   0   0  10 

TYR  73  92  74  93 /  20  10   0   0 

GGG  73  92  74  94 /  20  10   0   0 

LFK  72  93  73  94 /  20  10   0  10 



&&



.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AR...None.

LA...None.

OK...None.

TX...None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...13

LONG TERM....13

AVIATION...19

