FXUS64 KMAF 261920

AFDMAF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX

220 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 146 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



- Shower and thunderstorm chances (20-70%) continue for areas 

  west of the Pecos River each day. Locally heavy rainfall and 

  flash flooding will continue to be the main threat.



- Shower and thunderstorm chances (20-40%) return to the Permian 

  Basin/Lower Trans-Pecos early next week.



- Temperatures remain near normal each day and night. 



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(This afternoon through Friday night)

Issued at 146 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



A similar weather pattern is in store throughout the short term 

period. Showers and thunderstorms are forecasted to continue each 

afternoon into the evening hours across the western zones of the 

forecast area. This is due to a similar synoptic pattern from 

previous days as an upper-level ridge sits over the eastern half 

of the US, while shortwave troughs over the western half of the 

US. Precipitable Water (PWAT) values continue to reach near the 

climatological daily maximum indicating heavy rainfall is going to

be prevalent. Guidance also has these showers and storms training

in certain locations near the higher terrain. Given this 

combination plus the ground being saturated, especially across the

western half of the forecast area, a Flood Watch has been 

extended through Friday night for these areas. More widespread 

coverage of precipitation is expected to be confined further to 

the west as a weak mid-level ridge builds overhead Friday 

afternoon. High temperatures tomorrow will remain in the mid 80s 

to lower 90s across southeast New Mexico and the northwestern 

Permian Basin, while areas across the central/eastern Permian 

Basin into Stockton Plateau are forecasted to be in the mid 90s. 

Friday night lows are anticipated to remain near to slightly above

normal for this time of year regionwide. 



Lamberson



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Saturday through Wednesday)

Issued at 146 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



The extended forecast is about as climatological as it can get.

High pressure off to our east slowly builds back west over the

next few days and ultimately gets centered over the Four Corners

region of the western U.S. The high never gets settled over our

area enough to exert strong subsidence so temperatures will mostly

remain in the 90s with some 80s in the mountains. Moisture gets

pulled northward and continues the threat of afternoon showers

west of the Pecos River with isolated flash flooding a

possibility, especially in the mountains and at low water

crossings on area roads. Models show an upper disturbance moving

into West Texas and eastern New Mexico early next week increasing

rain chances for the Permian Basin. 



Hennig



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



VFR conditions will mainly prevail through the period. More isolated 

to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon 

through the early evening hours across most terminals. Heavy 

rainfall associated with these showers and storms will bring 

visibilities down to MVFR conditions briefly. Given the isolated 

to scattered nature of this precipitation, PROB30s were 

implemented for most except for CNM where confidence is higher for

showers/storms to occur. 



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Big Spring               72  96  74  97 /  10  10   0   0 

Carlsbad                 69  89  69  93 /  30  40  20  20 

Dryden                   73  97  74  97 /  10   0   0  10 

Fort Stockton            71  93  71  94 /  10  10  10  30 

Guadalupe Pass           65  81  66  85 /  40  50  20  30 

Hobbs                    68  90  70  92 /  20  20  10  10 

Marfa                    64  83  64  85 /  40  6010  60 

Midland Intl Airport     73  95  73  96 /  10  10   0   0 

Odessa                   72  93  73  95 /  10  10  10  10 

Wink                     71  93  72  95 /  20  20  10  10 



&&



.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Flood Watch through late Friday night for Chinati Mountains-

     Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-

     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware 

     Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and 

     Highway 54 Corridor.



     Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for Loving.



     Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Friday through late Friday night for 

     Presidio Valley.



NM...Flood Watch through Friday evening for Eddy County Plains-

     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.



     Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for Central Lea-Northern 

     Lea-Southern Lea.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...11

LONG TERM....10

AVIATION...11

