FXUS63 KEAX 261808

AFDEAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

108 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Severe storms possible Thursday afternoon into the evening.

  The main threats will be damaging winds and heavy rainfall.



- Hot and humid conditions persist through the weekend with a

  few sporadic chances for storms. Additional thunderstorms and

  cooler temperatures possible early next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 406 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Mid-upper level ridging in the southeast U.S. remains the dominant 

weather feature resulting in hot and humid conditions across the 

area. Highs for today are anticipated to range in the upper 80s to 

low 90s. This afternoon into this evening, mid-upper level troughing 

extending from western MN into southeastern NE, pushes a surface 

front through the area providing sufficient lift for initiating 

thunderstorms. Storms are anticipated to develop near northwest MO 

this afternoon and move through the rest of the area through the 

night. Good diurnal heating and humid conditions reflected in dew 

points to the low 70s combined with CAPE values ranging from 2,500-

3,000 J/kg allude to decent instability and the potential for strong 

updrafts. Weak bulk shear values (less than 20 kts) imply any storms 

that do develop will likely be disorganized and short-lived. Given 

this environment and DCAPE values ranging from 800-900 J/kg, a few 

of the strongest storms could produce damaging to severe winds 

gusts. The threat for severe hail is extremely low given the short, 

disorganized nature of the storms not allowing time for significant 

hail growth. The severe threat is expected to coincide with the 

warmest times of the day as that is when instability is the highest. 

If a stout H850 low-level jet develops later in the evening, the 

severe threat could be prolonged as it increases low-level shear and 

instability, however the LREF only has a ~20% chance of H850 winds 

reaching 30 mph. 



Potentially strong updrafts and PWATs exceeding 2 inches suggest the 

potential for efficient rain producing storms. This could result in 

brief, heavy downpours. Weak MBE velocity vectors suggest the 

potential for slow storm motions and training storms raining over 

the same areas. Some localized flooding is possible with additional 

rainfall, especially in northern MO where areas have already 

received significant rainfall amounts.



There is some uncertainty with the placement and timing of the 

front. With the storms tied so closely to the surface boundary, if 

the surface front is slower in its progression, flooding concerns 

increase. However, according to a few of the CAMs, the front remains 

progressive enough to limit flooding concerns. Thunderstorms are 

expected to linger into Friday morning as the front stalls out south 

of the HWY-36 corridor prompting additional storm chances Friday 

evening.



Friday, a H5 shortwave moves through the flow. Depending on where 

the previous day's boundary stalls out, would determine where storms 

form for tomorrow. A few of the high-resolution models suggest the 

best chances remaining to the south of I-70. Uncertainty is still 

fairly high with diverging solutions among models.



Hot and humid conditions persist through the weekend due to the 

influence of the ridge in the southeast U.S. A few vort maxima move 

through the flow on the northwestern periphery of the ridge possibly 

providing some low-end chances for storms over the weekend. Heat 

indices for this weekend stay in the 90s to low 100s. Storm chances 

and likely cooler conditions return early next week with stout mid 

to upper level troughing pushing a cold front through the area.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Currently VFR at all terminals with breezy SSW winds with gusts

up to 25 knots. These conditions should continue through the

afternoon hours. A cluster of thunderstorms is likely to develop

by late afternoon across NW Missouri, moving through STJ 

between roughly 1z and 4z tonight, MCI between 3z and 6z, and 

MKC and IXD between 4z and 7z. These storms could produce a few 

strong wind gusts up to around 50 to 55 mph, especially at STJ. 

Rainfall could be moderate to heavy at times, with VIS dropping 

to as low as 2SM or so. After the storms exit by late tonight, 

VFR conditions and dry weather is expected for the remainder of 

the period, with relatively light southwesterly winds.





&&



.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...Flood Watch from 5 PM CDT this afternoon through late tonight 

     for MOZ001>007-011>016-020>024-028>031-037-038-043.

KS...Flood Watch from 5 PM CDT this afternoon through late tonight 

     for KSZ025-057-102>105.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Collier

AVIATION...BMW

