ACUS01 KWNS 261611

SWODY1

SPC AC 261609



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Valid 261630Z - 271200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON

FROM NORTHWEST MO INTO SOUTHERN MN/WI...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO

THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this

afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota,

and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from

the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians.



...Upper Midwest...

A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving

eastward.  Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered

thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and

along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track

southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE

values will be 2000-3000 J/kg.  Steep low-level lapse rates will

promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward

through early evening.



From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed

low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be

favorable for a few discrete supercells.  Similar to yesterday

(although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few

tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening.



...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians...

Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the

western Carolinas and north GA.  This corridor will be hot/humid

again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms.  Winds aloft are

weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes.  However,

steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again

result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the

afternoon and early evening.  Despite the expected weak winds aloft,

will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of

model guidance supporting the threat.



..Hart/Thornton.. 06/26/2025



$$

