ACUS11 KWNS 261737

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 261736 

IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-261930-



Mesoscale Discussion 1454

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1236 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Areas affected...Extreme southeast NE/northeast KS into northwest MO

and southwest into central/northeast IA



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 



Valid 261736Z - 261930Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent



SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and possibly a tornado will

increase with time this afternoon.



DISCUSSION...A cold front is moving east across parts of eastern NE

and northeast KS this afternoon, as a surface low moves from

southeast SD into southern MN. While cloudiness has limited heating

to some extent, rich low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE of

2000-3000 J/kg along/ahead of the front. Storms are already

developing near a differential heating zone across central IA, with

other development possible later this afternoon in closer proximity

to the front. 



Both low-level and deep-layer shear increase with northward extent

across the MCD area. Some threat for supercells with a threat for

locally damaging wind and a tornado may develop into parts of

central/northeast IA (see MCD 1452 for more information). Farther

south, despite weaker shear, a broken line of storms with a threat

of damaging wind may eventually develop along/ahead of the front

from extreme southeast NE/northeast KS into southwest/south-central

IA and northwest MO. Watch issuance is likely in order to address

these threats.



..Dean/Hart.. 06/26/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...



LAT...LON   41129582 42199475 42789269 42849192 42779176 42189177

            41519249 41139284 40719325 40239384 39859460 39909560

            40439599 41129582 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH



