ACUS11 KWNS 261808

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 261807 

PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-262000-



Mesoscale Discussion 1456

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0107 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Areas affected...Southern lower MI into parts of IN/OH...western

PA...northern WV



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 261807Z - 262000Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent



SUMMARY...Storms with localized damaging winds are possible this

afternoon.



DISCUSSION...Multiple storm clusters are ongoing early this

afternoon across southern lower MI, with other recent development

into northeast OH and northern IN. The southern lower MI storms are

accompanied by gradually expanding outflow, which will eventually

move into parts of northeast IN and northern OH. Additional storm

development may occur near this outflow this afternoon as it spreads

east-southeastward. Deep-layer shear is weak, but modest

west-northwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer may support

occasional loosely organized clusters. A 44 kt gust was recently

observed in Toledo, OH, and strong buoyancy and steep low-level

lapse rates will continue to support a threat of strong gusts and

localized damaging wind through the afternoon. 



Farther south, deep-layer shear is even weaker into parts of central

IN, central/southern OH, and southwest PA. However, a favorable

downburst environment is in place across this region, with strong

buoyancy, relatively large PW, and steepening low-level lapse rates.

A threat for locally damaging wind will accompany the strongest

storms.



..Dean/Hart.. 06/26/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...

IND...LOT...



LAT...LON   41758648 42148510 42108336 41828092 41758020 41647955

            41337900 40677904 40107947 39368101 38488243 39118562

            40788700 41048703 41368686 41758648 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH



