AWUS01 KWNH 262202

FFGMPD

PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-270200-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0522

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

601 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Areas affected...Eastern OH...Northern WV Panhandle...Southwest PA



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 262200Z - 270200Z



SUMMARY...Ongoing clusters of storms to continue for the next

several hours, prolonging the flash flood threat into this evening.



DISCUSSION...Doppler radar shows scattered, slow-moving

thunderstorms from southwest Ohio and along the Ohio River on east

to far southwest Pennsylvania. The region does lie at the nose of

an unusually strong 50kt ESErly 200mb jet located over the

Southeast. This additional synoptic-scale influence is helping to

provide some upper-level support in a setup that is otherwise

heavily driven by daytime heating and nearby mesoscale boundaries

(outflows, lake breeze off Lake Eire most notably). Storms will

have as much as 2,000 J/kg of MLCAPE at their disposal through the

remainder of the afternoon and into this evening. PWs are also

ranging between 1.8-2.0", supporting the ongoing Excessive

Rainfall rates being observed in central and southwest OH.



Additional thunderstorms will likely come about as a result of

outflow boundaries emanating from ongoing convection, as well as

outflows colliding with other nearby outflow boundaries. Vertical

wind shear is light, making these storms highly dependent upon

cold-pool driven processes and congealing clusters of storms. With

a couple more hours of daylight to go, more storms are likely to

take advantage of the unstable/moist environment, as well as from

the help of an anomalous 200mb jet streak aloft. Additional rounds

of flash flooding are possible within the highlighted at-risk

region through the remainder of this afternoon.



Mullinax



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...PBZ...RLX...



ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...



LAT...LON   40848340 40828140 40528027 39738023 39118046 

            38578168 38708279 38668375 39568409 40608399 

            

