FNUS72 KMLB 261415

FWSMLB



Spot Forecast for Kissimmee Prairie...Florida Park Service

National Weather Service Melbourne FL

1015 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on June 26. 

If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather

Service.



.DISCUSSION...



The east coast sea breeze is forecast to develop and push inland,

leading to prevailing easterly winds and increasing rain and 

storm chances near the burn site this afternoon, particularly 

after 1 PM. Any storms that develop may be capable of producing 

frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts 40 to 50 mph, small hail, 

and heavy downpours. There is a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe 

weather, with a 5% chance for wind gusts up to 60 mph. Activity is

anticipated to diminish after 5 PM, with drier conditions 

overnight. Rain and storm chances return once again into Friday, 

with another Marginal Risk forecast near the burn site. There are

no minimum RH or wind concerns outside of convection, with

generally good smoke dispersion values forecast near the site each

day. Winds become more southerly on Friday.



.REST OF TODAY...



Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Chance of showers 

                    and thunderstorms early in the afternoon. 

                    Showers and thunderstorms likely late in the 

                    afternoon. 

Chance of pcpn......70 percent. 

Max temperature.....Around 92. 

Min humidity........56 percent. 

Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic winds 

                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon. 

Mixing height.......4600 ft AGL. 

Transport winds.....East 5 to 12 mph. 

Dispersion index....18 increasing to 46. 

LVORI...............3 decreasing to 1. 



TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 

Sky (%).........12  18  26  39  51  55  53  45  

Weather cov.....        CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY 

Weather type....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  

Tstm cov........        CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY 

Chc of pcpn (%).0   10  30  40  60  70  60  70  

Temp............84  87  88  89  90  88  90  87  

RH..............70  63  61  59  58  59  56  61  

20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   

20 FT wind spd..5   6   7   8   8   9   8   8   

20 FT wind gust.8   10  13  15  15  16  16  16  

Mix hgt (kft)...3.0 3.9 4.4 4.6 4.5 3.4 3.1 3.5 

Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   

Transp wind spd.5   6   8   8   8   12  10  9   

Dispersion idx..18  29  41  44  45  46  43  43  

LVORI...........3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   



.TONIGHT...



Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Showers and 

                    thunderstorms likely early in the evening, then 

                    chance of showers and thunderstorms early in 

                    the evening. Slight chance of showers and 

                    thunderstorms late in the evening. 

Chance of pcpn......60 percent. 

Min temperature.....Around 69. 

Max humidity........100 percent. 

Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 8 mph early in the evening 

                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds 

                    expected near thunderstorms early in the 

                    evening. 

Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL early in 

                    the evening. 

Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 10 mph shifting to the south 3 

                    to 9 mph in the late evening and overnight. 

Dispersion index....39 decreasing to 2. 

LVORI...............2 increasing to 10. 



TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM   

Sky (%).........43     40     45     41     37     31     

Weather cov.....LIKELY CHANCE                             

Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   

Tstm cov........LIKELY CHANCE                             

Chc of pcpn (%).6030     10     10     10     10     

Temp............85     80     77     73     72     71     

RH..............65     77     85     97     97     97     

20 ft wind......E 8    SE 6   S 3    S 2    S 2    S 2    

20 ft wind gust.14     12     9      6      5      5      

Mix hgt (ft)....3100   700    500    400    400    400    

Transport wind..SE 10  SE 8   S 9    S 5    S 5    S 5    

Dispersion idx..39     4      4      3      2      2      

LVORI...........2      4      6      8      9      10     



.FRIDAY...



Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Chance of showers 

                    early in the morning. Chance of thunderstorms 

                    late in the morning, then showers and 

                    thunderstorms likely late in the afternoon. 

Chance of pcpn......70 percent. 

Max temperature.....Around 93. 

Min humidity........56 percent. 

Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the 

                    late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic 

                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the 

                    morning. 

Mixing height.......1600 ft AGL increasing to 5700 ft AGL. 

Transport winds.....Southwest 3 to 8 mph. 

Dispersion index....2 increasing to 48. 

LVORI...............10 decreasing to 1. 



TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   

Sky (%).........22     12     19     30     42     54     

Weather cov.....       CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY 

Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR 

Tstm cov........                     CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY 

Chc of pcpn (%).10     40     40     40     70     70     

Temp............70     74     84     89     91     90     

RH..............100    100    72     61     58     58     

20 ft wind......S 2    S 2    S 5    SW 7   S 7    S 6    

20 ft wind gust.5      6      8      12     14     13     

Mix hgt (ft)....400    600    2700   4400   5700   4500   

Transport wind..S 3    S 6    SW 6   SW 6   SW 7   SW 8   

Dispersion idx..2      4      20     32     48     45     

LVORI...........10     9      3      1      1      1      



$$

Forecaster...Tollefsen

Requested by...Parks Small

Type of request...PRESCRIBED

.TAG 2516730.0/MLB

.DELDT 06/26/25

.FormatterVersion 2.0.0

.EMAIL parks.small@floridaDEP.gov

