FNUS72 KTAE 261259

FWSTAE



Spot Forecast for SMR Unit 418...USFWS

National Weather Service Tallahassee FL

859 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on June 26. 

If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather

Service.



Please contact our office at (850) 942-8833, if you have questions

or concerns with this forecast.



.DISCUSSION...



Wind will initially be out of the northeast this morning, leading

to offshore flow. Late this morning into the early afternoon the

sea breeze begins to move onshore and push inland, leading to

southeast to southerly flow this afternoon. Showers and

thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, at or near the burn 

site, generally between 2pm and 8pm, leading to potentially 

erratic wind conditions. Otherwise, dispersions are expected to be

fair.



.REST OF TODAY...



Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of 

                    showers and thunderstorms late in the morning, 

                    then chance of showers and thunderstorms late 

                    in the morning. Showers and thunderstorms 

                    likely late in the afternoon. 

CWR.................20 percent increasing to 30 percent late in the 

                    morning, then increasing to 40 percent early in 

                    the afternoon increasing to 60 percent early in 

                    the afternoon increasing to 70 percent 

                    decreasing to 60 percent late in the afternoon. 

Max temperature.....Around 94. 

Min humidity........52 percent. 

Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph 

                    early in the afternoon, then shifting to the 

                    south late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic 

                    winds expected near thunderstorms. 

Mixing height.......3400 ft AGL. 

Transport winds.....Northeast 10 to 13 mph shifting to the south 

                    around 7 mph late in the afternoon. 

LVORI...............3. 

Dispersion index....24 increasing to 26 in the afternoon. 



TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 

Sky (%).........48  47  45  52  53  57  62  58  57  

Weather cov.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY 

Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  

Tstm cov........SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY 

CWR.............20  20  30  30  40  60  70  60  60  

Temp............77  82  85  88  89  91  92  92  89  

RH..............82  72  63  57  56  52  52  52  57  

20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  S   S   SW  

20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   3   5   5   5   5   5   

20 FT wind gust.5   6   6   7   8   9   9   10  10  

Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.5 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.7 

Transp wind dir.NE  NE  E   E   E   E   SE  S   S   

Transp wind spd.13  13  13  10  8   7   7   7   7   

Dispersion......19  25  28  30  29  26  23  22  22  

LVORI...........3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   



.TONIGHT...



Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming 

                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming 

                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming 

                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of 

                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening and 

                    overnight. Slight chance of showers and 

                    thunderstorms after 3 am. 

CWR.................40 percent increasing to 50 percent early in 

                    the evening, then decreasing to 40 percent 

                    early in the evening decreasing to 30 percent 

                    in the late evening and overnight decreasing to 

                    10 percent increasing to 20 percent after 3 am. 

Min temperature.....Around 71. 

Max humidity........100 percent. 

Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 mph early in theevening becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds 

                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening and 

                    overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected 

                    near thunderstorms after 3 am. 

Mixing height.......400 ft AGL. 

Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 8 mph shifting to the west 

                    around 7 mph late in the evening, then shifting 

                    to the north 3 to 6 mph late in the evening 

                    shifting to the west around 3 mph overnight. 

LVORI...............5. 

Dispersion index....19 decreasing to 3 early in the evening. 



TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 

Sky (%).........54  62  59  78  70  58  53  51  42  55  48  36  

Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC     SCH SCH SCH 

Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW      RW  RW  RW  

Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC     SCH SCH SCH 

CWR.............40  50  40  40  30  30  30  30  10  20  20  20  

Temp............89  88  84  80  79  78  77  76  76  75  74  73  

RH..............57  59  67  74  79  85  88  90  87  90  97  97  

20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  NE  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   

20 FT wind spd..5   3   1   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   1   

20 FT wind gust.9   7   3   3   5   2   2   2   3   2   2   3   

Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 

Transp wind dir.S   SW  SW  W   N   NE  N   W   SW  W   NW  NW  

Transp wind spd.7   8   8   7   6   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   

Dispersion......20  17  4   4   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   1   

LVORI...........2   2   3   3   5   5   6   6   6   7   7   7   



.FRIDAY...



Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of showers 

                    and thunderstorms in the morning, then showers 

                    and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. 

CWR.................20 percent increasing to 70 percent. 

Max temperature.....Around 92. 

Min humidity........57 percent. 

Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south around 5 mph in the 

                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected 

                    near thunderstorms. Gusty and erratic winds 

                    expected near thunderstorms late in the 

                    afternoon. 

Mixing height.......3800 ft AGL. 

Transport winds.....Northwest around 3 mph shifting to the 

                    southwest 3 to 10 mph in the late morning and 

                    afternoon, then increasing to around 13 mph 

                    late in the afternoon. 

LVORI...............5. 

Dispersion index....4 increasing to 38. 



TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 

Sky (%).........49  53  52  52  52  52  51  48  46  46  46  46  

Weather cov.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY 

Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  

Tstm cov........SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY CHC 

CWR.............20  20  50  50  50  50  50  50  70  70  70  70  

Temp............73  72  75  79  85  87  88  89  90  89  89  88  

RH..............93  100 94  88  72  65  61  59  58  57  57  57  

20 FT wind dir..NE  N   N   N   N   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  

20 FT wind spd..1   0   0   0   0   1   2   5   5   5   5   5   

20 FT wind gust.3   2   2   2   2   5   6   8   9   10  10  9   

Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.6 0.6 1.6 2.5 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.4 3.0 2.6 

Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  

Transp wind spd.3   3   3   3   3   3   3   5   6   8   10  13  

Dispersion......1   1   3   6   11  14  17  22  27  35  40  39  

LVORI...........7   8   6   5   3   2   2   2   2   1   1   1   



$$

Forecaster...Oliver

Requested by...T. Pollard

Type of request...PRESCRIBED

.TAG 2516725.0/TAE

.DELDT 06/26/25

.FormatterVersion 2.0.0

.EMAIL travis_pollard@fws.gov

