FOCN45 CWWG 261900

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM

PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CDT THURSDAY JUNE

26 2025.



ALERTS IN EFFECT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR FAR NORTHEASTERN

ALBERTA AND PARTS OF SASKATCHEWAN. AIR QUALITY WARNINGS FOR FORT

LAIRD AND LYNN LAKE. SPECIAL AIR QUALITY STATEMENTS ALONG THE

MACKENZIE RIVER AND FAR NORTHWEST ALBERTA.



SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...AN UPPER LOW IS POSITIONED OVER THE GULF OF

ALASKA, WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO ANOTHER UPPER LOW

LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THERE IS SUBTLE RIDGING FROM

THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES, EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL

PRAIRIES. ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE UPPER LOWS NEAR VICTORIA ISLAND AND

SOUTHAMPTON ISLAND. AN UPPER LOW IS ALSO SITUATED ALONG THE LABRADOR

COAST, WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN

UNITED STATES.



AT THE SURFACE...TROUGHING IS EVIDENT FROM THE YUKON, EXTENDING

SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES TO A SURFACE LOW OVER

NORTHEASTERN ALBERTA. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE LOW

EXTENDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA, WHILE A COLD FRONT

EXTENDS BACK THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. A WARM SECTOR TROUGH

LIES ACROSS EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE

DOMINATES ONTARIO AND QUEBEC, WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER

EASTERN HUDSON BAY TOWARDS BAFFIN ISLAND, AND EASTWARD TOWARDS THE

MARITIMES. RIDGING EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC THROUGH

VICTORIA ISLAND TOWARDS KIVALLIQ.



DISCUSSION...



AB...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE

PROVINCE, MOSTLY NON-SEVERE, THOUGH A WATCH IS BEING ISSUED IN THE

FAR NORTH FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ALONG A TROUGH. FURTHER SOUTH,

NON-SEVERE MULTICELL MODES APPEAR LIKELY WITH 20-30 KTS OF BWD AND

CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG. STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN

THREATS. MORE CONVECTION IS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH SIMILAR

PARAMETERS IN PLAY.



ELSEWHERE, SMOKE CONTINUES TO DRIFT AROUND NORTHWESTERN ALBERTA, AND

HAS MIXED BACK TO THE SURFACE ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A STATEMENT.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE PROVINCE SHOULD SPARE

IT FROM SMOKE.



SK...ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF

SASKATCHEWAN.



THE PRIMARY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE ALONG THE

WARM-SECTOR TROUGH THROUGH EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN, WHERE THUNDERSTORMS

ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY. CURRENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE

REGION IS EXPECTED TO YIELD DEW POINTS IN THE MID-TEENS, CONTRIBUTING

TO MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG, AND 0-6 KM BWD PROJECTED TO BE

BETWEEN 30-40 KNOTS.



THE MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE FORECASTED TO INITIATE NEAR REGINA AND

MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS

ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND

STRONG, GUSTY WINDS. WHILE THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO EXISTS, IT IS

CONSIDERED TO BE CONDITIONAL GIVEN STORM MODE IS LOOKING TO BE RATHER

MESSY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING

AND MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT.



LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY

ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN; HOWEVER, SPECIFIC

DETAILS REGARDING THIS EVENT REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.



MB...FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY OVER SOUTHERN

MANITOBA, HOWEVER, STORMS FROM SASKATCHEWAN, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE

SEVERE, COULD DRIFT INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PROVINCE LATE THIS

EVENING.



THE SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD

PROGRESSION INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA TODAY, BRINGING RAINFALL TO THE

AREA ALONG WITH A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO

CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION

EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.



AIR QUALITY CONCERNS IN LYNN LAKE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS A

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS

INCREASE, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SMOKE BEING TRANSPORTED NORTHWARDS

TOWARDS THE TOWN. SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY SHOWED A FAIR BIT OF

SMOKE BEING PRODUCED BY WILDFIRES SOUTH OF TOWN, AND GUIDANCE IS

SUGGESTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.



LOOKING AHEAD, SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED IN PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN

MANITOBA ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER, SIMILAR TO SASKATCHEWAN, SPECIFIC

DETAILS REGARDING THIS EVENT REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.



NT...AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE MACKENZIE VALLEY,

THOUGH SMOKE CAN STILL BE SEEN ALOFT AND MAY MIX TO THE SURFACE.

THE THE AQW HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A SAQS FOR THE MACKENZIE VALLEY

FOR THIS REASON. AIR QUALITY REMAINS VERY POOR IN PARTS OF THE FORT

LAIRD REGION WHERE THE AQW IS STILL OUT. ELSEWHERE, NON SEVERE

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER SRN PARTS OF THE TERRITORY NEAR THE

60TH PARALLEL TODAY, THOUGH SMOKE MAY PUT A BRAKE ON CONVECTIVE

DEVELOPMENT TO AN EXTENT TODAY.



NU...SEASONAL WEATHER CONTINUES.



END/DYKES/KOKOLSKY/VAN LOCHEM

