FXAK67 PAJK 262341

AFDAJK



Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Juneau AK

341 PM AKDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SHORT TERM...The front that had stalled over the panhandle

Wednesday has finally been pushed northward and otherwise

deteriorate as some breaks in the clouds are visible in FAA

webcams across the northern panhandle. A stray shower remains

possible through Thursday evening before an incoming front dashes

any hopes of extended sunshine for the area. For the southern

panhandle, there will likely be little to no reprieve from the 

ongoing showers amid moist southeasterly flow over the area that 

will get enhanced as the front approaches later tonight into 

Friday.



While not particularly robust, winds are expected to build up to

20 kt along the front and raise winds up to 15 kt across most of

the inner channels as it moves through on Friday. 24 hour QPF

amounts remain modest, with the highest amounts expected in the

central and southern panhandle of between 0.5 and 0.75 inches from

Friday morning through Saturday morning. A secondary short wave

surface feature is expected to bring further enhanced winds and

precipitation on Saturday behind the initial frontal passage. For

more on this, see the long term discussion.



.LONG TERM...The mid and extended range forecast continues to 

feature a cold persistent upper low over the Gulf of Alaska. This

low will not move all that much over the next week and will even 

be the eastern anchor for a possible omega block that may develop 

over the Bering Sea toward the latter half of next week. What that

means for the panhandle is the continuation of cool, damp, and 

cloudy weather as the position of the upper low favors onshore 

flow over most of the panhandle through the period with some 

embedded shortwaves moving through (mainly over this coming 

weekend).



As for the weather features that will be affecting the panhandle 

over the next week, the main player is the front and following 

shortwaves that will be affecting the area this weekend into 

monday (first front is Friday, a shortwave follows on Saturday and

a second short wave moves in on Monday). Of these features, it is

the shortwave on Saturday that is now looking to be the 

strongest. Also it has a track a little further east then the 

previous forecast had. Guidance has also started putting in higher

probabilities for min small craft winds (25kt) for the southern 

near coastal waters and Clarence Strait midday Saturday into 

Saturday evening as this feature moves in. Increased winds in 

these areas as a result. Otherwise there are no signals for any 

abnormally strong winds or really wetting rains through the mid 

and extended range. However, the light rain will be persistent 

especially from Friday through Monday with upwards of 1 to 2 

inches of rainfall over the four day period with the highest 

totals in the southern panhandle. 



Active weather is expected to continue into the mid and late week

period with the upper low continuing to provide onshore flow

through the period. A couple more fronts expected for the mid to

late week period but timing is still variable.



&&



.AVIATION...A mixed bag of conditions this afternoon into tonight

as waves of precipitation move across the panhandle. We are

currently seeing the break period in flying conditions with many

locations across the panhandle having some increases to VFR,

predominantly across the central and northern panhandle this

afternoon. Most of the central and northern panhandle will

continue to see primarily VFR conditions into tonight, with some

drops to MVFR as CIGS fall to 2000 to 3000 ft as some showers move

through. By tonight, the central panhandle is expected to drop

back to primarily MVFR as the front approaches locations around

08z to 12z from Wrangell up through Icy Strait corridor tonight.

The southern panhandle and southern coastline will not see much 

of a break if anything in flying conditions this afternoon into

the evening, staying mostly in MVFR with some drops to IFR 

following some CIGS dropping to under 1000 ft and VIS between 2 

and 4SM as the front moves through. The northern panhandle, 

including Haines, Skagway, and Yakutat will stay VFR the longest 

into tonight, with some chances to drop to MVFR due to showers, 

before the front impacts these areas late tonight and drops CIGS 

to 2500 ft. There are no concerns regarding wind or LLWS going 

into tonight or tomorrow, with most locations still expecting 

lighter 5-10 kt winds even as the front moves through tonight.



&&



.MARINE...

Outer Waters: Outer waters will continue to see winds increasing out

of the ESE up to 20 kt as a front moves through late tonight. As 

of Thursday afternoon, the central gulf buoy reports ESE wind at 12 kt

gusting to 16 kt. As the front swings inland and northward 

Friday, expect southerly gulf winds to around 10 to 15 knots with

another shift eastward and increase as another short wave feature

moves into the gulf from the south on Saturday.



Inside Waters: Generally benign conditions across the majority of

the inner channels this Thursday afternoon with light winds.

Two exceptions are Clarence Strait with SE winds up to 20 kt

reported near Lincoln Rock Lighthouse and Cross Sound with

easterly winds from 10 - 15 kt. For tonight into tomorrow, as the

incoming front swings northward, wind speeds across the inner 

channels will increase, to upwards of 10 to 15 knots with locally

higher wind speeds possible. Additional waves of wind are likely 

this weekend with speeds upwards of 10 to 20 knots at times.

Strongest winds speeds are expected in the area of Dixon entrance

and Clarence Strait Saturday.



&&



.HYDROLOGY...



While surface temperatures remain seasonable, snow levels remain 

elevated and snowmelt continues for the far northern panhandle

rivers and streams. The Chilkat River is currently in Minor Flood

stage and flooding is expected to continue through Friday, the 

Flood Advisory has been extended to 4PM Friday afternoon. Diurnal

fluctuations could see the river briefly fall below minor stage

Thursday evening, but will then rebound, before gradually 

falling out of Minor Flood stage by Friday evening.



&&



.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PUBLIC...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...STJ

LONG TERM....EAL

AVIATION...Contino

MARINE...STJ

HYDROLOGY...STJ



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