FXAK68 PAFC 261349

AFDAFC



Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Anchorage AK

549 AM AKDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...



The forecast remains on track with another day of gusty winds 

expected through the Turnagain Arm, out of the Knik River Valley, 

and up through much of the Copper River Basin. Gusty winds may 

return on Friday, though overall it should be less than this 

afternoon and this afternoon should be a little less than 

yesterday. Showers are expected to gradually taper off for Susitna

Valley today as the trough departs the region but are expected to

linger along the coastal areas and higher elevations. There are 

still minor differences in the timing of precipitation of winds as

the upper level trough appears to be moving a little faster than 

originally expected. Thunderstorm chances will be lower today with

continued cloud cover to limit instability. Subsidence on the 

backside of the departing trough will also help to keep a lid on 

any storm development.



Further south, an upper low will lift over Kodiak Island and 

become mostly stationary. Its front, will make very slow northward

movement, not reaching the Gulf coast until late Friday or early 

Saturday. Rain will likely remain for Kodiak Island through much 

of the short term forecast. Showery conditions and small craft 

conditions are also forecast from the Shelikof Strait and the 

Barren Islands. Across the Gulf, winds will be around 20 kts along

the front. A wave of precipitation may develop ahead of the front

as it lifts toward the northern Gulf, but winds and precipitation

chances overall diminish late Friday as the front dissipates 

along the Gulf coast. Friday will thus see improved conditions 

across the Gulf as well as improved conditions further inland of 

Southcentral. A few showers may develop along the coast and higher

elevations, including the eastern slopes of the Talkeetna 

mountains Friday afternoon. 



The potential for precipitation chances across Southcentral 

increases for this weekend, however, as an easterly wave moves 

through Copper River Basin, there could be an isolated few 

lightning strikes that could develop Saturday afternoon. 

Precipitation chances then appear to spread into the Matanuska and

Susitna Valley and may stretch down into Anchorage and the 

western Kenai Peninsula as a deformation band sets up. Details 

will become more clear over the next few days.



BL/Rux





&&





.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS 

(Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday night)...



Weak low pressure south of Kodiak Island extends a broad trough

across the Alaska Peninsula into the central Bering Sea this 

morning, with a weakening front producing light rainfall across

the northern and central portions of the peninsula. The Bering 

Sea remains blanketed in stratus, with some pockets of fog,

despite light northerly flow. Meanwhile, a shortwave ridge has 

led to clear skies for a substantial part of Southwest Alaska. 



A potent shortwave trough tracks across the Alaska Range into the

Western Interior today, allowing a broad area of enhanced showers

and steadier rainfall to nudge into the northern portions of the 

Lower Kuskokwim Valley and interior Kuskokwim Delta today. A band 

of scattered showers also sets up across interior Bristol Bay to 

the Western Capes. Between these features, expect drier conditions

to persist, with breaks of sun and temperatures reaching the mid 

60s today. There is still some uncertainty with the track of the

easterly shortwave, but there is increased confidence that it

really only nudges in to the northern reaches of the area, where

it could drop a few tenths of an inch to around half an inch of

rain, particularly north of the Kuskokwim River. There is still

a low chance (around 25 percent) that locations along the river 

see a prolonged period of moderate rainfall (more than just a

passing shower), and if that were to be the case, high 

temperatures may not exceed 60 degrees, and the aforementioned

quantities of rain up to around half an inch could be realized.

However, this solution is not favored.



The Western Interior disturbance does dip south later tonight into

Friday, spreading increased moisture, cooler temperatures, and 

scattered showers into the Kuskokwim Delta as it weakens. Out

west, high pressure builds into the western/central Bering Sea. 

Conditions will gradually become more stable, leading to increased

potential for fog spreading back into the Bering Sea. On Saturday,

weak ridging builds over Southwest Alaska. The combination of

increasing temperatures and relatively clear skies with remnant

moisture from the easterly wave will allow for the development of

scattered to numerous rain showers and isolated thunderstorms

across the Western Alaska Range and portions of Bristol Bay as far

south as Dillingham and possibly King Salmon. Meanwhile, a weak

low near Kamchatka will bring in much warmer air and gusty

southerly winds to the far western Bering Sea this weekend,

further increasing fog potential.

 

&&





.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...



On the Alaska Weather map, little overall changes on the previous

forecasts. A closed upper level low continues to meander around 

the Central Gulf of Alaska through the forecast period. Over the 

Bering, an upper ridge pushes into the Western Mainland to link up

with a ridge over the Northern parts of the state. Tuesday sees a

new upper level trough from the North Pacific slipping into the 

Western Aleutians and Bering through midweek.The GFS and means 

covers the entire region throughout the forecast, with the other 

models diverge in the development over the Aleutians and Bering 

from Monday on.



Locally moderate showers and scattered thunderstorm activity is 

expected from the middle Alaska Range to the Eastern Interior 

through Monday. Scattered showers continue over the Southern 

Mainland through midweek. Coastal zones from the Alaska Peninsula 

and Kodiak Island to the Canadian border are expected to see 

locally moderate rain driven onshore by the offshore surface low, 

fronts and troughs wheeling East to West. With the approaching 

North Pacific upper trough, a surface low and front spreads 

locally moderate rain and breezy conditions across the Western and

Central Aleutians and Bering Monday through Wednesday.



- Kutz



&&





.AVIATION...



PANC...VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Turnagain 

Arm winds subside through the morning, with sustained winds of 10

knots and gusts up to 15 knots possible betwen 00Z and 06Z. 



&&





$$

