FXAK69 PAFG 262143

AFDAFG



Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Fairbanks AK

143 PM AKDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

Weather will be drying down in the Interior this afternoon through

tomorrow with more comfortable weather, seasonable temperatures

and light winds. The Brooks Range will keep chances for

thunderstorms through the weekend while the North Slope gradually

loses its stratus/fog this weekend. The Western Interior will be

wet today through tomorrow morning with a drying trend this

weekend. Thunderstorm chances continue from the Middle Yukon to

Noatak. The West Coast sees some showers with an isolated storm

possible from the Seward Pen to Kotzebue. 



&&



.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Generally drying out today. There are some showers north of the

  Alaska Range which will be isolated throughout the Interior. 



- A nice day Friday is expected with Saturday and Sunday returning

  to some wet weather, especially in the Eastern Interior. 

	- Rain, heavy at times on Saturday and Sunday in the Fortymile

   with the potential for it to continue through Monday. 

	- Potentially an inch or more of rain can fall from here to the

   Eastern Alaska Range as moist, northeast, upslope flow

   persists.



-Expect seasonable temps through the weekend. 



West Coast and Western Interior...

- Moderate to heavy rain today into tomorrow morning for the

  Western Interior from the Lower Yukon Valley to the Brooks Range

  with a widespread 0.25 to 0.50" and locally up to an inch with

  persistent heavier showers. 



- Isolated thunderstorms from the Middle Yukon Valley to the

  Seward Peninsula northward today. 



- Drier tomorrow with thunderstorm coverage mainly over the Brooks

  Range. An isolated storm near McGrath and the Western AK Range

  on Saturday, nearly no thunderstorms expected Sunday. 



North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Continued shower and thunderstorms over the Brooks Range through

  the weekend. 



- Stratus and areas of fog through Friday, then chances for

  clearer conditions on the Arctic Coast and in the Plains as a

  high drifts away from the coast. 



&&



.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...

A strong shortwave which provided nearly an inch of rain to the

Fairbanks area yesterday into today is moving off to the Western

Interior. This will stall a bit today and tomorrow before drifting

south. It will bring a heavy amount of rain to the Western

Interior. Easterly flow continues in the Eastern Interior with

chances for showers and storms, especially in the Northern

Interior and Southern Brooks Range. A ridge aloft tries to build

in from the east on Sunday with a low in the Gulf of Alaska. This

will set up northeast flow in the Eastern Interior, susceptible

for heavy rain and upslope flow from the Fortymile to the Eastern

Alaska Range. Otherwise, the weather remains mostly quiet on the

North Slope. 



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Thunderstorms will persist through the weekend with activity

becoming more spotty. The bulk of the activity today will be in

the Northern Interior and Brooks Range. Tomorrow it spreads south

to the Eastern Interior and Brooks Range with the focus on

Saturday and Sunday being in the Southeast Interior from the

Fortymile to the Eastern Alaska Range. Heavy rain is likely in the

Western Interior today with the Central and Eastern Interior

drying out today and tomorrow. Heavy rain is then looking more

likely in the Fortymile and Eastern Alaska Range Sunday through

early next week with the potential for an inch or more of rain.

Temperatures will be seasonably warm, mostly in the mid/upper 60s

to the mid 70s with the warmest spot being in the Yukon Flats. 



&&



.HYDROLOGY...

No concerns with the rivers, they will be gradually dropping. 



&&



.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...

There are couple of things we are watching in the extended range.

First is Sunday to Tuesday, northeasterly flow in the Southeast

Interior and Eastern Alaska Range which can bring the potential

for heavy rain. The second is the potential for a blocking

pattern. There has been hints of a rex block (high over low

pressure) or an omega block (low, high, low from west to east).

There is some uncertainty with the overall pattern evolution but a

high is looking more likely to build into Alaska with a low in, or

near the Gulf of Alaska. This could bring the potential for

another week of high thunderstorm activity and warmer

temperatures. 



Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None



&&



.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AK...None.

PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-806-854-856-857.

     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.

     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.

     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.

&&



$$



Bianco

