FXHW60 PHFO 261312

AFDHFO



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Honolulu HI

312 AM HST Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...



The forecast will trend drier for the rest of this week as ridging

builds into the region. Occasional pockets of moisture embedded 

within the trades will continue to produce mainly windward and 

mauka showers for the next several days. Trade wind speeds could 

decrease even further early next week as an overall drier trade 

wind pattern continues.



&&



.DISCUSSION...



Latest radar and satellite imagery shows a few showers moving 

across the chain. A few low level clouds streaming in on the

trades and some mid to upper level clouds overhead is evident on 

Nighttime Microphysics. Breezy trades are expected to continue for

the next few days due to a surface high that is far northeast of 

the state.



Over the next couple of days, upper-level ridging will build into

the region from the east as the surface high to our northeast 

weakens slightly but remains mostly stationary. Trades should 

decrease slightly but still remain in the moderate to breezy 

category. Conditions will begin to trend drier while some 

lingering instability and pockets of moisture embedded within the 

trade wind flow will still support typical windward and mauka 

showers.



Looking into early next week, little change is expected as the 

aforementioned surface high to the far northeast continues to move

eastward and weaken. This should weaken the trades at least for 

the first half of next week. 





&&



.AVIATION...



Breezy trades will continue for the next few days. Low cigs and

SHRA should mainly impact windward and mauka locations. MVFR conds

possible in SHRA otherwise VFR prevails. 



AIRMET Tango remains in effect for mod turb blw 080 downwind of 

island terrain for all islands. 





&&



.MARINE...



High pressure northeast of the state will drive moderate to 

fresh trade winds for the next several days. A disturbance 

passing well north of the area late this weekend into early next

week may ease the pressure gradient slightly and allow trades to ease

a notch or two.



The current south swell will continue to provide near average 

surf along south facing shores this morning but higher sets will 

become more inconsistent. This swell will continue to gradually 

fade to background levels later today into Friday. Models indicate

another small, long period south swell arriving late Sunday into 

early next week that should boost south shore surf back up to near

average surf.



Surf along east shores will remain rough and choppy for the next 

several days. Surf may lower a notch as the trade winds ease 

late this weekend into early next week. Surf along north facing 

shores will remain tiny through the period.



Peak high tides associated with the lunar cycle will cause minor 

coastal flooding along shorelines and low lying coastal areas this

afternoon during the daily peak tide. The Coastal Flood Statement

remains in effect through this afternoon and may be dropped as 

daily peak tides lower and south swell dissipates, lowering water

levels.



&&



.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$





DISCUSSION...Walsh

AVIATION...Walsh

MARINE...Almanza

