FXUS06 KWBC 261902

PMDMRD

Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks

NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD

300 PM EDT Thu June 26 2025



6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 02 - 06 2025



Today's model solutions are in good agreement on the predicted 500-hPa 

circulation pattern across North America and surrounding regions during the 

6-10 day period. The ECMWF, GEFS and Canadian ensemble means predict a 

progressive pattern during the period. The manual 500-hPa height blend is based 

on the ensemble means from the GEFS, ECMWF and Canadian models, weighing the 

ECMWF model greater due to recent model skill. The resultant manual blend 

features amplified mid-level ridges over the northwest Pacific and Mainland 

Alaska, while a mid-level trough is predicted over the Gulf of Alaska. A ridge 

and positive 500-hPa height anomalies are forecast over the northwestern 

contiguous United States (CONUS) and a trough with weaker 500-hPa height 

anomalies over the northeastern CONUS. Another trough is forecast over the 

coast of California. Slightly above-normal 500-hPa heights are predicted across 

Hawaii.



Near to below normal temperatures are favored for parts of southeastern 

Mainland Alaska and Southeast Alaska, while above normal temperatures are 

favored over the remainder of  Mainland Alaska, consistent with the Auto 

temperature blend of model tools and the temperature consolidation of 

calibrated ECMWF and GEFS forecasts. Near to above normal temperatures are 

favored over most of the CONUS, under positive 500-hPa height anomalies. 

Probabilities for above normal temperatures exceed 60 percent for parts of the 

Northern Rockies under the predicted ridge. Below normal temperatures are 

favored for portions of the southwestern and south-central CONUS, consistent 

with the Auto blend and increased cloudiness due to the flow of moisture into 

the region. The temperature consolidation favors above normal temperatures 

across most of the Hawaiian Islands, associated with above average sea surface 

temperatures in the region.



Above normal precipitation is slightly favored across southern Mainland Alaska 

and the eastern Aleutians, consistent with the precipitation consolidation, 

ahead of the predicted trough. Near to above normal precipitation is favored 

over most of the CONUS (except for western Washington, where below-normal 

precipitation is slightly favored), consistent with the precipitation 

consolidation and the Auto blend. Probabilities for above normal precipitation 

exceed 70 percent for parts of the Southwest monsoon region with predicted 

moisture flow into the region. Above normal precipitation is also favored 

across the Rockies into the Plains and most areas east of the Mississippi, 

consistent with model precipitation forecasts and the flow of tropical moisture 

into these regions. Above normal precipitation is favored across Hawaii, 

consistent with the precipitation consolidation and above average sea surface 

temperatures in the region.



The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 6z GFS 

Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean 

centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 

8 

 



FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: About-average, 3 out of 5, due to 

good agreement between models on the mean mid-level height pattern, with 

uncertainty related to a progressive height forecast and differences between 

uncalibrated and calibrated temperature and precipitation model forecast tools.



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 04 - 10 2025 



Ensemble mean forecasts for the 500-hPa height pattern over North America 

during the 8-14 day period remain in relatively good agreement, while the 

overall pattern evolves during the forecast period. In the manual blend of 

model forecasts, a ridge and amplified positive 500-hPa height anomalies 

persist over the northwestern Pacific, while a trough is forecast over the Gulf 

of Alaska. The predicted ridge and center of positive 500-hPa height anomalies, 

over the northwestern CONUS in the 6-10 day period, progresses eastward 

slightly over the northern tier of the CONUS in week 2. Slightly above-normal  

500-hPa heights are predicted across Hawaii.



Below normal temperatures are favored for southeastern Mainland Alaska, and 

Southeast Alaska in the 8-14 day period, while near to above normal 

temperatures are favored for the remainder of Mainland Alaska in week 2, 

consistent with the Auto blend of model tools and the temperature 

consolidation. Above normal temperatures continue to be likely for most of the 

northwestern and north-central CONUS, under a predicted ridge and associated 

positive 500-hPa height anomalies. Below normal temperatures are favored for 

parts of the Southwest with enhanced moisture flow into the region and 

cloudiness. Above normal temperatures continue to be favored for much of the 

south-central CONUS and Southeast , consistent with the Auto blend and 

temperature consolidation. Above normal temperatures are favored across most of 

the Hawaiian Islands, consistent with the temperature consolidation. 



Above normal precipitation continues to be slightly favored across most of 

Mainland Alaska and Southeast Alaska consistent with model precipitation tools. 

Near to above normal precipitation is favored over most of the CONUS in week2 

(except for parts of southeastern Texas, where below-normal precipitation is 

slightly favored), consistent with the precipitation consolidation and the Auto 

blend. Probabilities of above normal precipitation are much enhanced for the 

Southwest region in the 8-14 day period with continued moisture flow into the 

region from the tropics. Above normal precipitation is favored across Hawaii in 

week 2, consistent with the precipitation consolidation and the Auto blend of 

precipitation tools.



The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 6z GFS 

Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean 

centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on 

Day 11 





FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, due to 

good overall agreement on the mean mid-level height forecast, offset by weak 

signals in the precipitation and temperature tools for many areas. 



FORECASTER: Luke H



Notes:





Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual 

intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In 

these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.





The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as 

that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below





The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, 

"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average 

values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the 

shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). 

 Probability of N is always < 40%.





The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, 

"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values 

for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the 

shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). 

 Probability of N is always < 40%.





In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a 

greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal 

(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases 

a forecast ofnear normal is effectively a forecast of little or no 

precipitation.





The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in 

the climate outlooks.



The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on 

July 17.





Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)

for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude

include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 

19520626 - 20040608 - 19940703 - 19990606 - 19840614





Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)

for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude

include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 

19520629 - 19990605 - 20040610 - 19940703 - 19880709





6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE

Outlook for Jul 02 - 06 2025



STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   

WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      N    N     NRN CALIF   N    N     

SRN CALIF   B    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A     

W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A     

UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    B    A     

NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A     

NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A     

N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     B    A     

MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    N    A     

ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   N    A     

ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    A     

INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A     

TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    N    A     

VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A     

MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A     

PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    N     

MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    N     

N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A     

FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N     

AK ALEUTIAN N    A     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    N     

AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    B    A     

 

                           



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE

Outlook for Jul 04 - 10 2025



STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   

WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      N    N     NRN CALIF   N    N     

SRN CALIF   N    A     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A     

W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    A     

UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    B    A     

NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    N    A     

NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A     

N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    A     

MINNESOTA   N    N     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    N    A     

ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   N    A     

ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    N    A     

INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    A    A     

TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    N    A     

VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       N    A     

MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A     

PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A     

MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    A    A     

N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A     

FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A     

AK ALEUTIAN N    A     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  N    A     

AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    B    ALEGEND

TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN

A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN

B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

 

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL

VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE

AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS

PMDMRD.



$$



