FXUS61 KAKQ 262340

AFDAKQ



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Wakefield VA

740 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

A large ridge remains across the Eastern CONUS, bringing very hot 

conditions to the region through the week. Low-end chances for 

afternoon showers and thunderstorms make a return through the 

weekend into early next week.



&&



.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

As of 245 PM EDT Thursday...



- Heat Advisories in effect for the entire forecast area today.



- Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop today, with more 

  coverage than previous days. A few storms could be strong to 

  severe.



Afternoon sfc analysis indicates a large area of high pressure over 

much of the SE CONUS still centered SW of the local area. A backdoor 

front located over the northern Mid Atlantic is sagging south toward 

the area. The UL ridge that has been in place for several days 

continues to slowly weaken. Temps as of latest obs are in the low to 

mid 90s. Heat indices are generally in the 103-107 range and the 

Heat Advisory across the area will continue until 7pm tonight. Lows 

tonight will be in the low-mid 70s. 



Regarding convection for this afternoon into this evening, we are 

looking at a pretty similar set up to yesterday. Already seeing a 

few storms pop up on radar and there's a fairly robust cu field 

across much of the area on satellite. Once again, there is no 

shortage of instability with SBCAPE between 3000-4000 J/kg on 

mesoanalysis (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE). There's not really any shear 

to speak of and weak flow aloft, which may serve to limit storm 

strength. However, DCAPE is sitting at 1000-1500 J/kg, so any 

stronger storms that do develop will have the potential for damaging 

wind gusts. The SPC did add a slight risk for areas NW of Richmond 

with the mid-day update. Elsewhere, a marginal risk remains in 

place. With plenty of moisture and storms motions slower than a 

snail, heavy rain could lead to isolated instances of flooding 

(Marginal ERO from WPC). Isolated storms this afternoon likely 

increase in coverage across the N/NW this evening (40-50% PoPs). 

Precip mostly tapers off after midnight, but could see some 

lingering showers across the far N into tomorrow morning as the 

front drops into the area.



&&



.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

As of 315 PM EDT Thursday... 



Key Messages:



- Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected Friday afternoon.

  A few storms could be strong to severe.



- Heat Advisory issued for SE portions of the area for Friday. A Backdoor

  cold front to bring some relief from the heat to the NE 

  counties and MD Eastern Shore counties.



The backdoor front drops into the area Friday morning and stalls out 

somewhere in the vicinity of I-64 before lifting out again Friday 

night. This will bring a temporary relief from the intense heat to 

the MD Eastern Shore and perhaps the Northern Neck where highs will 

be in the 80s. Low cloud cover and potentially some fog are expected 

north of the front as well, at least in the morning. South of the 

front, highs will yet again be in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices 

will be over 100 for much of the area with an area of 105-107 from 

Richmond down to Elizabeth City. Did go ahead and issue a Heat 

Advisory for that area: generally S of I-64 and E of I-95 give or 

take a few counties. Cannot rule out an expansion of the advisory 

before tomorrow as confidence increases in placement of the front. 

Scattered thunderstorms are also expected with the marginal severe 

risk and flood threat continuing. Damaging wind gusts would once

again be the main threat. Highest coverage looks to be in the 

W/NW in the evening. By Saturday, the front will start to lift 

back to the north, so while afternoon/evening thunderstorms are 

still possible, they will not be as high in coverage as Friday. 

With the upper ridge still across the region, above normal 

temperatures are expected again on Saturday with highs in the 

lower to mid 90s. Heat indices will range between 97-104F, 

though some areas could see a brief period of 105F+ heat 

indices.



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

As of 320 PM EDT Thursday... 



Key Messages:



- Hot weather continues into early next week.



- An unsettled pattern develops with daily, diurnal chances for 

  scattered storms.



The weakened upper ridge will remain across the area Sunday into 

early next week, leading to the continuation of above normal 

temperatures. While temperatures will not be quite as high as what 

we saw this past week, highs will still reach the low to mid 90s 

Sunday through Tuesday, with heat indices between 98-103F. We will 

continue to monitor any trends in the heat, as subtle differences in 

the temperatures and dew points could lead to some areas reaching 

Heat Advisory criteria. A cold front will approach the region 

on Tuesday, with moisture pooling ahead of it and PWs 

approaching 2.0"+ later this weekend into early next week which 

may result in a heavy rain threat. The unsettled weather pattern

will continue, with isolated to scattered convection each 

afternoon and evening Sunday through Tuesday. The aforementioned

front is set to move through Tuesday into Wednesday, though it 

looks like it might linger across NE NC through Thursday, 

bringing higher rain chances to the southern half of the 

forecast area on Wednesday and Thursday. Wed (behind the front) 

could potentially be our first day in a while with widespread 

highs <90F with current forecast highs in the upper 80s.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

As of 740 PM EDT Thursday...



Isolated to scattered storms are ongoing west of the main

terminals early this evening and are expected to dissipate

over the next hour or two. Additional showers and storms are

possible across the northern third of the area later this

evening into the overnight as a back door front drops from NE to

SW before stalling. These storms would most likely impact SBY

but hi-res guidance keeps the storms SW of the terminal (over

the Northern Neck and Chesapeake Bay) so will not mention in the

forecast for now. Low stratus and possibly reduced VSBYs are

likely behind the front so have SBY in IFR/LIFR conditions

through the night and into the daylight hours of Friday as well.

IFR CIgs may spread as far SW as RIC around sunrise but 

confidence is low so will show a period of low-end MVFR with

this TAF. Elsewhere, VFR conditions prevail through the period

but afternoon convection will again be possible on Friday,

especially near where the front stalls. Have included PROB30

groups at RIC and PHF where confidence is highest but ORF could

also see some storms in the afternoon/evening. Winds are mostly

light and variable tonight, becoming SE 5-10 kt by the

afternoon. 



Outlook: VFR conditions are primarily expected into next week 

as the front lifts back north. However, late afternoon/evening 

storms are possible every day into early next week.



&&



.MARINE...

As of 245 AM EDT Thursday...



Key Messages:



- Benign marine conditions continue through the remainder of the 

week and into the weekend.

 

Favorable marine conditions will continue through the weekend as 

high pressure remains dominant across the region. The wind direction 

will be influenced by the sea breeze during the day as the land 

heats up, then will become generally variable overnight. As the high 

shifts offshore through the end of the week and into the weekend, 

the synoptic winds become predominantly southerly areawide. Sea 

breezes may still make an appearance near the shore in the afternoon 

hours, which would shift the wind to theE or SE. A few wind gusts 

to 20-25 kt are possible by the weekend or early next week, but 

predictability is low at this range given the effects of potential 

convection. Isolated to scattered storms are also possible in the 

afternoons and evenings today through the weekend, which could bring 

strong wind gusts to the waters, with winds and seas higher within 

any convection.



Seas in the Ocean remain around 2 ft for the week, increasing to 2-3 

ft by Friday. Waves in the Bay and rivers of 1-2 ft or less 

through the period.



&&



.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MD...None.

NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for NCZ014>017-031-

     032-102.

VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for VAZ080>083-

     088>090-092-093-095>098-512>516-523>525.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...AJB/RMM

NEAR TERM...AC

SHORT TERM...AC/NB

LONG TERM...AC/NB

AVIATION...RHR

MARINE...ESS

