FXUS61 KALY 261801

AFDALY



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Albany NY

201 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

Much cooler weather is expected today into the first 

half of the weekend, although there will be chances for rain each 

day, with a few thunderstorms possible Friday and especially 

Saturday. Drier but warmer weather returns for Sunday. Next Monday 

and Tuesday look hotter and more humid, with additional chances for 

showers and thunderstorms with the next cold frontal passage Tuesday.



&&



.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Key Message:



 - Significantly cooler today with scattered showers, especially

   this afternoon



Discussion:

.Update...As of 6:30 AM EDT...Scattered showers have become 

more widespread over the past couple hours in Ulster, Dutchess, 

and Litchfield Counties in the vicinity of a stationary front, 

so PoPs here were increased to likely to categorical through the

next couple hours. Current radar imagery also shows a few 

sprinkles moving into the southern ADKs, but most of the rain 

here should hold off until mid morning. Minor changes made to 

temps to reflect current obs, but more notable changes to dew 

points, as the mid to upper 40s dew points to our north never 

got into our ADK and Mohawk Valley areas overnight. Otherwise, 

previous forecast for a much cooler day with afternoon showers 

remains on track...



.Previous...Upper ridging remains centered south of our region,

but will continue to weaken through the near term. With high 

pressure building southwards from Canada, a couple of cold 

fronts are dropping south through the region. The main cold 

front remains near the I-84 corridor, with a second front 

currently located in the southern ADKs and upper Hudson Valley. 

This has led to a wide range in temperatures across the region, 

with mid 50s in the ADKs and low 70s near the I-84 corridor. 

Along the primary cold front, we are seeing some showers 

which should stay confined mainly to our southern few counties.



This morning, these showers are expected to linger across

Ulster, Dutchess, and Litchfield Counties through around mid-

morning. As the surface high continues to push further 

southeast, low-level flow veers more to the E/NE with the 

surface high building into southern Quebec. This will lead to 

temperatures that will be much cooler than yesterday. High 

terrain areas will see highs in the upper 60s to low 70s, with 

mainly 70s for valley areas. Shower chances will increase again 

from mid to late morning through the afternoon and evening as a

weak impulse aloft tracks along the low to mid-level thermal 

gradient. There is still plenty of moisture in place with the

increased forcing for ascent, so showers could be fairly

numerous this afternoon. Forecast soundings show a few pockets 

of elevated instability, so a few rumbles of thunder will be 

possible, but severe weather is not expected. Some storms could 

contain briefly heavy rain with PWATs expected to be around 1.5"

(locally higher towards the I-84 corridor). However, with mid- 

level flow strengthening to 30-40 kt, dry antecedent conditions 

(<0.25" of rain over most of our region in the last 5 days), and

an overall lack of instability, we collaborated with WPC to 

remove the marginal risk ERO from our region today.



&&



.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

Tonight...The surface high becomes centered near Maine, with

continued low-level easterly flow. This will help push the

surface warm front further south and west of our region. With

the upper impulse tracking off to our east, shower coverage

should diminish overnight, but there could still be some

isolated showers or drizzle with the mid-level front still over

our region. It will be much cooler tonight with lows in the 50s

to low 60s and mid to upper 50s dew points. Tomorrow, the low-

level flow becomes more S/SE as the surface high slides 

southwards, but it should remain cool once again with highs 

ranging from 60s (terrain) to 70s (valleys). The mid-level front

remains over our region, keeping it mostly cloudy with some 

isolated light showers, but the lack of large-scale forcing

should result in plenty of dry periods during the day,

especially from late morning through early afternoon.



Friday night and Saturday...A surface low tracks into the Great

Lakes ahead of an approaching upper shortwave, then tracks north

of our region near the NY/Canada border on Saturday. The surface

low will help lift the mid-level warm front north through our

region, although exactly how quickly the surface front can lift

north remains uncertain. There is a wide range of possible

outcomes in the guidance, likely due to uncertainty in how

long the high to our east can linger and help to keep the

shallow low-level cooler air locked in. We have kept portions 

of the ADKs and southern Greens relatively cooler in the 60s, 

with warmer temperatures elsewhere. The best chance to break out

into the warm sector is in the Mid Hudson Valley, where 

temperatures could reach the low 80s Saturday. Along the mid-

level warm front, a period of moderate to heavy rain associated 

with training convection is expected Friday night into Saturday 

morning. Some rumbles of thunder are also possible with 

Showalter values of 0 to -2. At this time, the best chance for 

this looks to be mainly north of our region, although if the 

mid-level front were to be located further southwards then 

portions of the ADKs and upper Hudson Valley could potentially 

get into the heavier rain. At this time, this looks like a less-

likely scenario, with only a 10-15% chance for >1" of rain in 

12 hours per the latest NBM. WPC has kept their slight risk ERO 

north of our CWA, which seems appropriate given the placement of

the front. 



Attention then turns to the system's cold front, which tracks

through the region Saturday afternoon and evening. Dynamics 

don't look overly impressive, and SPC just has our area 

outlooked for general thunder at this time. However, for areas 

that can break out into the warm sector and get surface-based 

convection (best chance south of I-90), we will have to watch 

trends over the coming days to see if a couple of stronger 

storms could be possible. Any showers and storms could produce 

locally heavy rain with PWATs still remaining elevated, around 

2". Showers and storms diminish after sunset as the cold front 

tracks off to our east. Temperatures will drop back into the 

50s (terrain) to 60s (valleys) for overnight lows behind the 

cold front Saturday night.



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Key Message: 



 - Increasing heat and humidity return early next week. Feels-

   like temperatures of 90-95 are likely in lower elevations 

   Monday.



Discussion: High pressure is expected to build east across the 

region on Sun, with zonal flow aloft. So mainly dry and seasonable 

conditions are expected, although a brief/light shower cannot be 

ruled out as a low-amplitude short wave moves through. Dry/tranquil 

weather persists through Sun night. 



Temperatures then warm considerably on Mon, as a warm front lifts 

north of the area and a southwest flow develops. Highs should be in 

the 85-90F range across lower elevations. With dewpoints rising into 

the upper 60s/lower 70s, feels-like temperatures of 90-95F are 

expected in lower elevations. As a cold front and associated upper 

level trough approach from the Great Lakes, shower probabilities 

increase Mon night into Tue. Depending on the timing of the cold 

front, some stronger storms may occur on Tue if the front moves 

through later in the day. High temperatures Tue do not look quite as 

warm as Mon due to more clouds and showers around, but still above 

normal along with persistent humidity. Wed looks slightly cooler and 

less humid, although a few showers/T-storms cannot be ruled out as 

an upper level trough starts to dig across the Great Lakes and 

Northeast.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

We start the TAF period with scattered rain showers across KGFL, 

KPSF, and KALB airfields. Kept mention of light rainfall in TEMPO 

groups for these TAF sites as rain showers quickly move through and 

become more vicinity showers through 00z. For KALB through 19z, kept 

mention of the IFR conditions with the passing shower in a TEMPO as 

conditions should improve once the shower moves through. Otherwise, 

VFR conditions should continue through tonight with periods of MVFR 

conditions after 6z and kept mention of overnight shower activity in 

PROB30 group for KALB. For KGFL, kept mention for tomorrow morning 

rain shower activity in PROB30 groups as confidence is low to 

mention in the prevailing. Winds continue to be northerly this 

afternoon becoming light and variable for the overnight hours into 

tomorrow morning. 



Outlook...



Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

Saturday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.



&&



.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...None.

NY...None.

MA...None.

VT...None.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...Main

NEAR TERM...Main

SHORT TERM...Main

LONG TERM...JPV

AVIATION...Webb

