FXUS61 KBGM 261954

AFDBGM



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Binghamton NY

354 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...



Stationary front keeps showers around this evening with 

isolated thunderstorms possible across the western Twin Tiers 

and Wyoming Valley. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are 

expected through Saturday. Temperatures will continue to trend 

cooler through the end of the week.



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

400 PM Update...



A shortwave is moving through the region this afternoon as a 

stationary frontal boundary sets up as northeasterly flow runs into 

southwesterly flow. This convergence keeps scattered showers in the 

forecast through the afternoon and evening hours. Main threat will 

be the potential for flash flooding over the Wyoming Valley, 

Northern Tier of PA and the Central Southern Tier of NY as the 

boundary develops over this region. A round of showers will 

progress from the northwest to southeast as the afternoon 

unfolds. Model soundings show pwat values up to 2 inches along 

with a warm cloud layer ranging 10,000 to 12,000 feet, 

suggesting heavy rain is a strong possibility. WPC also has a 

slight risk for excessive rainfall over the the south western 

portion of our area. A flash flood watch was issued for this 

area from 12 PM through midnight. 



These showers will also be convective in nature. Model sounding show 

CAPE values ranging 900 to 1,500 J/Kg. Despite decent CAPE values in 

northeast PA, bulk shear values range 20-25 knots. Sounding profiles 

do show an inverted v suggesting winds mixing down to the 

surface with storms that do develop. With southeasterly flow 

there is a marine layer creeping into the Pocono mountain 

region. This could cause storms to intensify, but confidence on 

this is low. Mainly expecting potential for damaging winds with

any strong to severe storms that form. SPC has most of our area

in a general thunder with a marginal risk for severe storms 

over northeast PA. The bottom of Luzerne county gets clipped by 

a slight risk. Thunderstorms should push south of the area by 

mid-evening. Some light scattered rain showers will be possible

north of the Southern Tier overnight. Lows will vary based on 

which airmass is over the region, upper 50s to low 60s over the 

eastern portion of the region and low to mid 60s over the 

western portion.



Friday's weather looks to be active again with the stationary front 

lifting north as it gets picked up by a low pressure system moving 

into the Great Lakes. How far north and east the front moves will 

determine temperatures across the area. Some guidance keeps the 

front over the far western portion of the CWA while others bring it 

into the I-81 corridor. Temps east of the front will be in the upper 

60s to low 70s while west of the front will be in the upper 70s to 

low 80s. Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will 

develop as a trough moves in from the west, with convection 

developing west of the front and rain showers east of the front. How 

far east the convection develops will be determined by where the 

stationary front eventually sets up.



&&



.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

240 AM Update...



Start with weak ridging overhead Friday night. Warm front pushes

northward across the region early Saturday morning. Warm air and

moisture advection takes hold before a cold front approaches

from the west Saturday afternoon. Instability out ahead of the

front will increase, with MUCAPE values around 1000 - 1500 

J/kg. Showers and thunderstorms should become widespread by late

Saturday afternoon and persist into the evening before ridging 

starts to build overhead again Saturday night. At this time, 

shear is looking fairly weak, with 0-6km bulk shear of about 30

knots. Although a severe storm is unlikely, stillcan't rule 

out a rogue strong storm or two. Main threat Saturday afternoon

and evening will be localized flash flooding, as PWATs will be 

elevated once again. Any heavier showers or storms that track 

over already sensitive areas will have some potential to produce

localized flash flooding.



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

250 AM Update...



Front exits the region by early Sunday morning and ridging

builds back in behind it. Temperatures should heat up once 

again, especially on Monday. There will some modest potential  

for heat advisories on Monday, although this will be dependent 

on shower and thunderstorm activity during the afternoon peak 

heating hours. Southerly flow sets up with 850 mb temperatures 

ranging 17 to 18 degrees C. These warm temperatures should be 

short lived, as an upper level trough is expected to dip south 

into the region by Tuesday with a more organized frontal system 

moving through and kicking off more showers and thunderstorms

Tuesday.



&&



.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR conditions hold for a few more hours at some sites.

Otherwise MVFR restrictions are possible as rain showers 

continue to move in this afternoon and continue through this

evening. There will be a chance for thunderstorms at ITH/ELM/AVP

this afternoon. Confidence was not high enough to include IFR 

at these terminals during the thunderstorm period, but if a cell

with heavy rain moves over the terminal, a brief period of IFR 

is possible. MVFR to Fuel Alt ceilings remain at all terminals 

through the overnight hours with scattered rain showers at 

ITH/SYR/RME. Fog is expected to form at ELM, with IFR conditions

through the overnight hours.



Outlook...



Friday...Mainly VFR. There will be isolated to scattered 

showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions but 

terminals will be mostly VFR.



Saturday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms can lead to

associated restrictions. 



Sunday into Monday...Mainly VFR.



&&



.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ038-039-043-044-

     047.

NY...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ022-024.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...JTC

NEAR TERM...ES/JTC

SHORT TERM...MPK

LONG TERM...MPK

AVIATION...ES/JTC

