FXUS61 KBGM 262016

AFDBGM



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Binghamton NY

416 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

Stationary front keeps showers around this evening with 

isolated thunderstorms possible across the western Twin Tiers 

and Wyoming Valley. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are 

expected through Saturday. Temperatures will continue to trend 

cooler through the end of the week.



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

400 PM Update...



A shortwave is moving through the region this afternoon as a 

stationary frontal boundary sets up as northeasterly flow runs into 

southwesterly flow. This convergence keeps scattered showers in the 

forecast through the afternoon and evening hours. Main threat will 

be the potential for flash flooding over the Wyoming Valley, 

Northern Tier of PA and the Central Southern Tier of NY as the 

boundary develops over this region. A round of showers will 

progress from the northwest to southeast as the afternoon 

unfolds. Model soundings show pwat values up to 2 inches along 

with a warm cloud layer ranging 10,000 to 12,000 feet, 

suggesting heavy rain is a strong possibility. WPC also has a 

slight risk for excessive rainfall over the the south western 

portion of our area. A flash flood watch was issued for this 

area from 12 PM through midnight. 



These showers will also be convective in nature. Model sounding show 

CAPE values ranging 900 to 1,500 J/Kg. Despite decent CAPE values in 

northeast PA, bulk shear values range 20-25 knots. Sounding profiles 

do show an inverted v suggesting winds mixing down to the 

surface with storms that do develop. With southeasterly flow 

there is a marine layer creeping into the Pocono mountain 

region. This could cause storms to intensify, but confidence on 

this is low. Mainly expecting potential for damaging winds with

any strong to severe storms that form. SPC has most of our area

in a general thunder with a marginal risk for severe storms 

over northeast PA. The bottom of Luzerne county gets clipped by 

a slight risk. Thunderstorms should push south of the area by 

mid-evening. Some light scattered rain showers will be possible

north of the Southern Tier overnight. Lows will vary based on 

which airmass is over the region, upper 50s to low 60s over the 

eastern portion of the region and low to mid 60s over the 

western portion.



Friday's weather looks to be active again with the stationary front 

lifting north as it gets picked up by a low pressure system moving 

into the Great Lakes. How far north and east the front moves will 

determine temperatures across the area. Some guidance keeps the 

front over the far western portion of the CWA while others bring it 

into the I-81 corridor. Temps east of the front will be in the upper 

60s to low 70s while west of the front will be in the upper 70s to 

low 80s. Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will 

develop as a trough moves in from the west, with convection 

developing west of the front and rain showers east of the front. How 

far east the convection develops will be determined by where the 

stationary front eventually sets up.



&&



.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

415 PM Update...



Saturday is looking unsettled as an area of low pressure passes

to the north. Right now, there is a good chance that the region

is in the warm sector of the low with heavy rains along the 

warm front staying north. Some ensembles to have that warm front

farther south along the I-90 corridor which will need to be 

watched as the ground is wet so additional heavy rain will 

increase the flash flood risk. In the warm sector of the storm, 

Ensemble probabilities of >1000 J/kg of CAPE as well as more 

than 30 Knots of 0-6 km shear is around 30 to 50% along and east

of I-81 for Saturday. Forecast hodographs do show some 

curvature of the low level winds with height so all severe types

are possible if there can be enough heating ahead of an 

approaching cold front. 



Saturday night into Sunday, high pressure builds into the 

region with drier air advecting in with precipitation chances 

near 0 into Monday. 



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

415 PM Update...



The long term remains active with Monday starting off with 

another strong ridge builds in with 500 mb heights back up over 

585 dm. High temperatures will be pushing back into the 90s and 

dew points could be back up into the 70s so heat headlines may 

be needed again. Broad troughing into the middle of next week 

keeps frequent passages of shortwaves. Chances of precipitation 

were kept higher in the afternoons with day time heating leading

to instability. Passage of shortwaves will also increase the 

shear so if they can come through in the afternoons or early 

evenings there is potential for isolated to scattered severe 

storms mid next week.



&&



.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR conditions hold for a few more hours at some sites.

Otherwise MVFR restrictions are possible as rain showers 

continue to move in this afternoon and continue through this

evening. There will be a chance for thunderstorms at ITH/ELM/AVP

this afternoon. Confidence was not high enough to include IFR 

at these terminals during the thunderstorm period, but if a cell

with heavy rain moves over the terminal, a brief period of IFR 

is possible. MVFR to Fuel Alt ceilings remain at all terminals 

through the overnight hours with scattered rain showers at 

ITH/SYR/RME. Fog is expected to form at ELM, with IFR conditions

through the overnight hours.



Outlook...



Friday...Mainly VFR. There will be isolated to scattered 

showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions but 

terminals will be mostly VFR.



Saturday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms can lead to

associated restrictions. 



Sunday into Monday...Mainly VFR.



&&



.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ038-039-043-044-

     047.

NY...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ022-024.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...JTC

NEAR TERM...ES/JTC

SHORT TERM...AJG

LONG TERM...AJG

AVIATION...ES/JTC

