FXUS61 KBOX 261427

AFDBOX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA

1027 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

Turning cooler as a result of a cold front, today through 

Saturday, then warming Sunday into early next week, with daily 

chances of showers and thunderstorms.



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Key Messages: 



* Major shift in temperatures with afternoon temperatures are in the 

  70s. Widely scattered light rain, under mainly cloudy skies. 



The cold front continues to move from the north to the south this 

morning, brings lower temperatures & dew points to southern New 

England. Associated with the front, are hit-or-miss showers and will 

linger through portions of the early morning. Heading out the door 

this morning it is noticeably less warm, between 5-10 degrees 

cooler, less humid too. So, say goodbye to the heat! Cold front 

ushered in a much cooler air mass, and temperatures aloft 

quickly fall. An east to northeast wind aids in the cooling 

conditions due to an area of high pressure over eastern Canada, 

which is shifting east. With an on shore flow, temperatures this

afternoon are on either side of 70F. Though, for those living 

in the lower Connecticut River Valley, the influence of the 

North Atlantic is less here. Expect highs this afternoon in the 

middle 70s. In general, temperatures today are a solid 25F-30F 

degrees cooler than last couple of days. Plenty of cloud cover 

today and overnight, look for widely scattered rain as a 

shortwave rides the outer edge of the mid-level ridge. No 

washouts are expected. Nighttime lows fall to either side of 

60F.



&&



.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

Key Messages: 



* Cool with widely scattered rain Friday, under cloudy skies. 



Friday is nearly a carbon copy of Thursday. The mid-level ridge is 

no more, and there is quasi-zonal flow across the CONUS. This allows 

for quick hitting shortwave energy to pass through the region, leads 

to plenty of cloud cover and widely scattered rain. Like Thursday, 

Friday will not be a washout, most of the day features dry periods 

than wet. High pressure shifts east and is near Nova Scotia and 

continues the northeast flow, temperatures remain below normal in 

the upper 60s to low 70s.



&&



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Key Messages: 



* Below normal temperatures remain on Saturday, but a return to the 

  summer warmth Sunday though next week.   



* Best chance for showers comes Friday night into Saturday. 



As discussed prior, the mid-level ridge flattens and flow becomes 

nearly zonal. This allows for shortwaves to pass through the region 

and bring shower chances Friday night into Saturday, though there is 

still uncertainty with the heaviest rainfall, in generally it does 

look to stay across northern New England, but the ensembles do 

show probs of 0.5", the GEFS at 40-60%, ENS does not show this, 

but has even lower probabilites of 0.1" at 20-40%, while the CMC

has 10-30% of 0.5" and +70% of 0.1". Something to watch, though

the better forcing does look to be in northern New England. 

Don't go canceling any outdoor events just yet. Briefly drier 

late Sunday into Monday, followed by a storms on Tuesday with a 

frontal passage. 



Temperature-wise, onshore flow provides cool temperatures Saturday, 

highs in the low to middle 70s Saturday. A warm up follows Sunday 

through midweek, summer temperatures return with highs in the low-

80s on Sunday. Then early next week highs return to the middle and 

upper 80s, along with dew points nearing 70F. It remains possible 

Monday and Tuesday could approach the low 90s, ensembles show 

+90F probabilites are between 30-50% across parts of southern 

New England.



&&



.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...



Low - less than 30 percent.Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 

High - greater than 60 percent.



15Z TAF Update: 



Through Tonight: High confidence. 



Mainly VFR through the entire period; psbl brief MVFR visby in 

moderate SHRA for PVD and Cape airports thru 17z. Should then be

generally dry thru at least 22z, before more spotty showers 

move in from eastern NY into western airports. These spotty 

showers then trend to dry 04-07z Fri. NE to E winds around 10 kt

thru this evening.



Friday: Moderate Confidence. 



VFR. Periods of showers are possible, leading to MVFR 

conditions though confidence is lower in exact location and 

timing. East wind becomes east/southeast 10-12 knots with gusts

to 20 knots. 



KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.



KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.



Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... 



Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,

slight chance TSRA.



Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA,

chance TSRA.



Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA,

slight chance TSRA.



Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance

SHRA, slight chance TSRA.



Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. 



Monday: Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.



&&



.MARINE...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...



Low - less than 30 percent. 

Medium - 30 to 60 percent. 

High - greater than 60 percent.



Today and Friday: High Confidence. 



Weak cold front approaches from the north, increasing clouds 

and a few pop-up showers and thunderstorms. 



Today and Tonight: Northeast winds 15 knots, gusts of 22 to 25

knots are possible, with seas on the southern waters 3 to 4 

feet with southern outer most waters nearing 5 feet. Opt'd no 

Small Craft Advisory given the marginal conditions. 



Friday: East to southeast winds 15 knots with gusts nearing 25

knots and seas building 4-5 feet across the southern waters and

2 to 4 feet across the eastern waters. Likely will need a Small

Craft Advisory during this period. 



Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...



Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 

5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. 



Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of

rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. 



Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance

of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms. 



Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain

showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. 



Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. 



Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.



&&



.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...None.

MA...None.

RI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...Dooley

NEAR TERM...Dooley

SHORT TERM...Dooley

LONG TERM...Dooley

AVIATION...Loconto/Dooley

MARINE...Loconto/Dooley

