FXUS61 KBUF 261914

AFDBUF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Buffalo NY

314 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

A frontal boundary will remain over the eastern Great Lakes

region through Saturday, producing several rounds of showers 

and scattered thunderstorms with localized heavy rainfall 

possible. The front will finally move east of the area Saturday 

night, with high pressure building into the eastern Great Lakes 

Sunday providing a dry second half of the weekend.



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

A humid airmass persists across western and north-central NY today. 

A broad ridge remains across the southeast U.S. with zonal flow

across the eastern Great Lakes region and Northeast. A wavy 

stationary front remains across the Great Lakes region, with it 

extending across western NY. A dichotomy of weather exists 

across the forecast area where stratus and temperatures in the 

mid 60s are just north of the front and sunshine, congested

cumulus and temperatures in the 80s are south of the front. 

Mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE of 1000 J/kg and shear of less than 25

knots across the western Southern Tier. Based on satellite 

imagery, little if any glaciation has occurred in cu development

and based on the kinematics, severe threat is low through this 

evening. 



Elsewhere, multiple waves will continue to ride the westerly flow 

today. Areas of rain will ride along the southern shore of Lake 

Ontario this afternoon, while scattered showers move across the

North Country this afternoon. 



The ridge builds northward while a shortwave trough moves into the 

Upper Great Lakes region tonight. Widely scattered showers are 

possible with the humid airmass in place but organized convection is 

not anticipated for most of the night. A surface low will move into 

the central Great Lakes Friday morning. A warm front will lift 

northward across western NY Friday. Surface heating and a very 

humid airmass will lead to convection initiation across western 

NY by late Friday morning. A pre-frontal trough will likely be 

the focus of showers and storms from the western Southern Tier 

into the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region. The Buffalo 

Metro and Niagara Frontier will be on the western fringe of 

organized convection and should be spared by the greater

rainfall amounts. High PWATS, light 850-300mb wind, high RH% in

1000-500mb layer increases the potential for heavy rain across 

the region. HREF 3-hr PMM shows medium (50-70%) probability of 

greater than an inch of rain from Cattaraugus county to Monroe 

county with probabilities tapering off west and east of that 

corridor. There is a conditional threat for localized flash 

flooding in this area. 



Further north, showers are likely with a few thunderstorms possible 

Friday afternoon. Fcst shear is higher, but instability is low. The 

threat for heavy rainfall is low east of Lake Ontario through 

Friday.



&&



.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

The region will remain in a moist airmass through at least Saturday 

morning, resulting in a wet few days to start the period. 



The sfc low over the central Great Lakes will slowly track to 

northern NY by Saturday night, as mid and upper level flow 

weakens, causing its slower track. As the sfc low's trailing 

cold front crosses the area late Saturday morning through the 

evening, providing additional forcing, and combined with the 

moist and unstable atmosphere in place, additional heavy showers

along with thunderstorms are expected through the day on 

Saturday. 



Guidance is flip flopping back and forth with the speed of the cold 

front tracking across the area on Saturday. If the front does track 

across the area slower, during the middle of the day with peak 

daytime heating, then rainfall amounts will likely increase. 



Showers and thunderstorms willtaper off from west to east Saturday 

afternoon through the evening, resulting in mostly dry conditions 

for Saturday night. 



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A passing sfc high on Sunday will provide at least one dry day over 

the weekend, with the drier weather continuing into Monday morning. 

An incoming cold front and trough will increase the potential for 

showers later on Monday, which will continue through Tuesday evening 

for at least some portions of the area. Drier weather is expected 

for Wednesday and Thursdsay, though some guidance is suggesting

the potential for afternoon showers with the daytime heating. 



Temperatures will remain near to above normal for the period, with 

the warmest temperatures expected on Monday ahead of the 

approaching cold front.



&&



.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A wavy stationary boundary will remain across western NY through

tonight. Northeast flow has led to persistent stratus south of 

Lake Ontario today. MVFR conditions will likely persist at KROC

and kIAG through the afternoon. Stable, billow clouds can be

found north of the boundary with a few waves moving in the

westerly flow across the region. Convection is occurring south

of the boundary. A few thunderstorms are possible but mainly

east of KJHW. 



Tonight, the stalled frontal zone will remain over the eastern Great 

Lakes. Convergence and moisture along the front will continue to 

support a few scattered showers overnight, but these should remain 

rather disorganized. Areas of MVFR CIGS will continue, with some IFR 

across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes.



Showers and thunderstorms will likely develop across western NY

late Friday morning. These will likely produce heavy rain with

flight restrictions possible from KJHW to KROC. At this time,

KBUF and KIAG are west of the main axis of rainfall. Showers

will be possible at KART through the morning. MVFR flight

conditions will slowly improve across the higher terrain. 



Outlook...



Saturday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely. Scattered thunderstorms 

also possible with local/brief IFR. Improving to VFR with rain 

ending Saturday night. 



Sunday...VFR.



Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and 

thunderstorms later in the afternoon.



&&



.MARINE...

High pressure will build from Quebec to northern New England by

Friday, while a frontal zone remains stalled over the southern 

Great Lakes. Northeast winds will increase on Lake Ontario today

as the surface high passes by to the north, bringing a round of

Small Craft Advisory conditions to the south shore of the lake 

later today through tonight. Winds will remain lighter on Lake 

Erie, with some chop developing tonight.



Winds will diminish by Friday morning, then becoming southerly later 

Friday through Friday night as the stalled frontal zone moves back 

north as a warm front.



&&



.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NY...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for NYZ001>004.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LOZ042-043.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/HSK

NEAR TERM...HSK

SHORT TERM...HSK/SW

LONG TERM...HSK/SW

AVIATION...Hitchcock/HSK

MARINE...Hitchcock

