FXUS61 KBUF 261935

AFDBUF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Buffalo NY

335 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

A frontal boundary will remain over the eastern Great Lakes

region through Saturday, producing several rounds of showers 

and scattered thunderstorms with localized heavy rainfall 

possible. The front will finally move east of the area Saturday 

night, with high pressure building into the eastern Great Lakes 

Sunday providing a dry second half of the weekend.



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

A humid airmass persists across western and north-central NY today. 

A broad ridge remains across the southeast U.S. with zonal flow

across the eastern Great Lakes region and Northeast. A wavy 

stationary front remains across the Great Lakes region, with it 

extending across western NY. A dichotomy of weather exists 

across the forecast area where stratus and temperatures in the 

mid 60s are just north of the front and sunshine, congested

cumulus and temperatures in the 80s are south of the front. 

Mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE of 1000 J/kg and shear of less than 25

knots across the western Southern Tier. Based on satellite 

imagery, little if any glaciation has occurred in cu development

and based on the kinematics, severe threat is low through this 

evening. 



Elsewhere, multiple waves will continue to ride the westerly flow 

today. Areas of rain will ride along the southern shore of Lake 

Ontario this afternoon, while scattered showers move across the

North Country this afternoon. 



The ridge builds northward while a shortwave trough moves into the 

Upper Great Lakes region tonight. Widely scattered showers are 

possible with the humid airmass in place but organized convection is 

not anticipated for most of the night. A surface low will move into 

the central Great Lakes Friday morning. A warm front will lift 

northward across western NY Friday. Surface heating and a very 

humid airmass will lead to convection initiation across western 

NY by late Friday morning. A pre-frontal trough will likely be 

the focus of showers and storms from the western Southern Tier 

into the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region. The Buffalo 

Metro and Niagara Frontier will be on the western fringe of 

organized convection and should be spared by the greater

rainfall amounts. High PWATS, light 850-300mb wind, high RH% in

1000-500mb layer increases the potential for heavy rain across 

the region. HREF 3-hr PMM shows medium (50-70%) probability of 

greater than an inch of rain from Cattaraugus county to Monroe 

county with probabilities tapering off west and east of that 

corridor. There is a conditional threat for localized flash 

flooding in this area. 



Further north, showers are likely with a few thunderstorms possible 

Friday afternoon. Fcst shear is higher, but instability is low. The 

threat for heavy rainfall is low east of Lake Ontario through 

Friday.



&&



.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Surface low pressure over the SOO Locks Friday evening will move 

across Ontario and into Quebec through Saturday night. A warm front 

will move across the eastern Lake Ontario region Friday night. A 

warm, humid airmass will maintain the chance for showers and 

thunderstorms across the region. Heavy rainfall is likely in 

activity, and forecast soundings show some signals of training 

storms east of Lake Ontario late Friday night. There is a 

conditional threat of localized flooding overnight. Coverage of 

showers and thunderstorms will be less across western NY the first 

half of the night, however upstream convection will likely move into 

the region late Friday night. Due to the loss of daytime heating, 

the severe threat is low late Friday night. The front will move 

across the forecast area Saturday and the chance from showers and 

storms will diminish from west to east. Cooler and drier air 

will persist across the region through Sunday night.



&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

An approaching cold front and trough will increase the 

potential for showers late Monday, which will continue through 

Tuesday evening for at least some portions of the area. Drier 

weather is expected for Wednesday and Thursday, though some 

guidance is suggesting the potential for afternoon showers with 

the daytime heating. 



Temperatures will remain near to above normal for the period, with 

the warmest temperatures expected on Monday ahead of the 

approaching cold front.



&&



.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A wavy stationary boundary will remain across western NY through

tonight. Northeast flow has led to persistent stratus south of 

Lake Ontario today. MVFR conditions will likely persist at KROC

and kIAG through the afternoon. Stable, billow clouds can be

found north of the boundary with a few waves moving in the

westerly flow across the region. Convection is occurring south

of the boundary. A few thunderstorms are possible but mainly

east of KJHW. 



Tonight, the stalled frontal zone will remain over the eastern Great 

Lakes. Convergence and moisture along the front will continue to 

support a few scattered showers overnight, but these should remain 

rather disorganized. Areas of MVFR CIGS will continue, with some IFR 

across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes.



Showers and thunderstorms will likely develop across western NY

late Friday morning. These will likely produce heavy rain with

flight restrictions possible from KJHW to KROC. At this time,

KBUF and KIAG are west of the main axis of rainfall. Showers

will be possible at KART through the morning. MVFR flight

conditions will slowly improve across the higher terrain. 



Outlook...



Saturday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely. Scattered thunderstorms 

also possible with local/brief IFR. Improving to VFR with rain 

ending Saturday night. 



Sunday...VFR.



Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and 

thunderstorms later in the afternoon.



&&



.MARINE...

High pressure will build from Quebec to northern New England by

Friday, while a frontal zone remains stalled over the southern 

Great Lakes. Northeast winds will increase on Lake Ontario today

as the surface high passes by to the north, bringing a round of

Small Craft Advisory conditions to the south shore of the lake 

later today through tonight. Winds will remain lighter on Lake 

Erie, with some chop developing tonight.



Winds will diminish by Friday morning, then becoming southerly later 

Friday through Friday night as the stalled frontal zone moves back 

north as a warm front.



&&



.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NY...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for NYZ001>004.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LOZ042-043.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/HSK

NEAR TERM...HSK

SHORT TERM...HSK

LONG TERM...HSK/SW

AVIATION...HSK

MARINE...Hitchcock

