FXUS61 KCLE 261742

AFDCLE



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Cleveland OH

142 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

A warm front will attempt to lift north over northern Ohio and

Lake Erie as low pressure tracks east across the Upper Midwest

today. This low will extend a frontal boundary across the area 

late Friday into Saturday. The boundary will lift north as a

warm front Sunday into Monday before the next cold front 

crosses the region early next week.



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

The forecast remains on track for today with mostly sunny

conditions this morning followed by scattered thunderstorms this

afternoon and evening. It looks like activity will develop first

along the convergent boundary across Northeast Ohio early this 

afternoon. Late this afternoon a piece of shortwave energy 

moving around the ridge will reach Northwest Ohio with showers 

and thunderstorms expanding in coverage, especially after 4 PM. 

A concern remains for isolated damaging wind gusts given the 

moderate instability and heavy rainfall with thunderstorm this 

afternoon. 



Previous discussion...Warm, humid, and unsettled weather will 

continue through the end of the week. A frontal boundary over 

northern Ohio early this morning will attempt to lift north over

Lake Erie this afternoon. Scattered diurnally-influenced 

showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon with the 

highest PoPs inland from Lake Erie. Like the last couple of 

days, a moist and unstable air mass will be over the region with

PWAT values exceeding 1.5 inches and MLCAPE values to around 

2000-2500 J/kg (with locally higher MLCAPE values possible 

across NW OH) expected during peak diurnal instability this 

afternoon. Mid- level dry air and DCAPE values as high as around

700 J/kg will result in another risk of damaging gusts 

associated with wet downbursts today, as outlined in a Marginal 

Risk of severe weather across the entire area. The high moisture

content and weak steering flow parallel to the frontal boundary

could lead to slow-moving/training precip with locally heavy 

rainfall possible. Localized flooding can't be ruled out 

primarily in locations that receive repeated rounds of heavy 

rain. There's still some uncertainty in the coverage/placement 

of showers and thunderstorms since shear will be somewhat 

marginal and PoPs will likely be refined in future updates. 



PoPs taper off with the loss of diurnal heating tonight but

there will still be a small chance of periodic showers and 

perhaps an isolated thunderstorm overnight. PoPs once again rise

by late afternoon Friday as an upper trough and surface cold 

front approach from the west. Shear may be a bit more optimal in

western zones Friday afternoon, however the best forcing/PoPs 

probably won't arrive until after peak diurnal instability 

Friday evening.



The heat and humidity will stick around through Friday with

highs in the mid to upper 80s in NW PA/NE OH and upper 80s to

lower 90s across NW OH anticipated each day. Maximum heat 

indices at inland locations will be in the 90s, although a few 

spots west of I-71 may briefly approach 100 degrees. Any 

showers/storms ahead of or during peak heating would result in 

slightly cooler temperatures/heat indices. Tonight's lows will 

be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.



&&



.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

The short term forecast period will be a transitional period as the 

upper ridge and heat dome over the region will push southeast as the 

pattern breaks down and a trough will enter the Great Lakes region 

for early next week. The first part of the weekend will bear the 

brunt of this transitional phase, as a cold front will move through 

the forecast area, which will offer elevated storm chances on Friday 

night into Saturday. Storm chances may be on a downward trend onFriday night as the area will be in the minimum of the diurnal 

cycle. However, the front will be over the area on Saturday and 

likely to categorical PoPs are in the forecast, as storms will be 

back on the uptrend until the front clears on Saturday evening. High 

pressure will enter behind the front and allow for dry weather for 

Saturday night through Sunday night unless the incoming trough 

speeds up, which is trending less likely. Temperatures on Saturday 

will be cooler than recent days with convection in the region and 

highs will average in the low to mid 80s. Highs on Sunday will be 

back into the mid to upper 80s with dry conditions and plenty of 

sunshine allowing for temperatures to trend warmer.



&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Monday into Tuesday appears unsettled at this time with an upper 

trough digging into the Great Lakes region and a cold front swinging 

through the region, supporting more showers and storms. Coverage 

appears pretty good on Monday and have likely PoPs across the area; 

will need to monitor for severe storm chances on Monday, given the 

ample instability across the region and good synoptic energy with 

the trough. There could be some residual storms on Tuesday, 

depending on the final upper trough and cold front timing. 

Otherwise, the forecast will trend quiet for the start of July with 

high pressure building into the region and subsidence aloft on the 

back side of the upper trough. High temperatures will be back toward 

normal in the low to mid 80s.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...

Similar pattern as the past few days continue with the potential for 

diurnal showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening 

from 18Z to 00Z. Location will generally be along the frontal 

boundary that is draped across Northern Ohio with higher

confidence near KTOL, KCLE, and KYNG given current placement and

progression of thunderstorms. There is lower confidence in 

thunderstorms near KCAK, KMFD, and KFDY so opted to continue 

with the PROB30 group and VCTS and no thunderstorms are 

expected at KERI. Within thunderstorms, non-VFR visibility can 

be expected along with gusty downdrafts. Thunderstorms will be 

generally moving in easterly direction throughout the afternoon,

though will be moving slowly. Winds will generally be light 

outside of the thunderstorms, staying less than 10 knots out of 

a northerly direction. 



Towards the end of and after the TAF period, a cold front will be 

approaching from the west moving east. Winds will increase to around 

10 knots with the potential for gusts from 15-20 knots, mainly for 

the western terminals. There is also the potential for thunderstorms 

at the end of the TAF period for KCLE, but opted to omit it due

to low confidence in timing and coverage. 



Outlook...Non-VFR conditions expected with afternoon/evening 

thunderstorms and showers through the weekend with Sunday being the 

highest confidence in VFR conditions. Non-VFR conditions

expected to start next week through Tuesday with an approaching

low pressure system. 



&&



.MARINE...

Today will be fairly similar to previous days with light offshore 

flow being favored for the first part of the day with a lake breeze 

developing and flow flipping more onshore during the afternoon and 

evening hours. A system approaching the region for Friday will allow 

for elevated offshore flow on Friday, starting from the southeast 

and slowly shifting to the southwest then west on Saturday with a 

cold frontal passage. Some 2 to 3 ft waves could develop with the 

westerly flow on Saturday, but conditions should stay below the need 

for any headline. High pressure will return to the region for 

Sunday, allowing for light and variable flow. The next system will 

approach for Monday and Tuesday with southwest flow favored ahead of 

the cold front on Monday and westerly flow behind the front on 

Tuesday. Waves could again get elevated to 2 to 3 ft on Tuesday with 

the westerly flow on Tuesday, but still not too concerned about any 

marine headline needs.



&&



.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OH...None.

PA...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...15

NEAR TERM...10/15

SHORT TERM...Sefcovic

LONG TERM...Sefcovic

AVIATION...15

MARINE...23

