FXUS61 KCLE 262024

AFDCLE



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Cleveland OH

424 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

A frontal boundary will lift north tonight as low pressure 

tracks east across the Upper Midwest. This low will extend a 

cold front southeast across the area late Friday into Saturday.

The boundary will lift north as a warm front Sunday night  

before the next cold front crosses the region Monday evening. 



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Showers and thunderstorms continue to expand in coverage late this 

afternoon. ML CAPE values are in the 1500-2500 J/kg range and 

activity is expected to continue to fill in, especially across NW 

and North Central Ohio. Fortunately there is little shear to work 

with today but DCAPE remains at or above 900 J/kg. In additions 

thunderstorms will produce heavy rain with rates of 2-4" per hour. 

The main concern for localized flooding will be if storms start to 

train over a particular area and overwhelm drainage system. Activity 

this evening is being forced by some weak shortwave energy moving 

around the ridge along with a minimal increase in mid-level 

moisture. Also from colliding outflow boundaries. Activity is 

expected to wane after sunset. 



Low pressure moving into southern Minnesota this evening will track 

northeast across the Upper Great Lakes on Friday. During the early 

part of the day, deeper moisture will be in place across  NE Ohio/NW 

Pennsylvania as the upper ridge shifts eastward and expect activity 

to fire in this region first. In addition, the cold front associated 

with the above mentioned area of low pressure will move into NW Ohio 

after 6 PM, then gradually sag southeast across Lake Erie through 

the overnight hours. Far eastern and western portions of the area 

are highlighted in a marginal risk of severe weather which seems 

appropriate given continued moderate instability values of 2000+ 

J/kg. Sheer will be slightly higher than the previous couple days 

but mid-levels will be a little more moist, so microbursts may be a 

little harder to come by. Will need to monitor thunderstorm activity 

again during the afternoon and evening on Friday, including the 

potential for some training of storms along the front. Precipitable 

water values will be near 2 inches and storm motion is likely to be 

be parallel to the front which could support training. Before the 

activity fills in on Friday, hot and muggy conditions are expected 

once again. Heat index values will be in the upper 90s across much 

of northern Ohio and could possibly hit 100 before the storms 

arrive, especially near Lake Erie where dewpoints may be a degree or 

two higher. It is not out of the question that a Heat Advisory could 

be issued but with thunderstorms developing during the afternoon 

will likely be able to hold off on that. 



&&



.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Upper level trough crosses the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday and 

a frontal boundary slowly settles southward across east central

Ohio. This moist axis will begin in our southeastern counties 

on Saturday morning with shower activity either ongoing or 

developing with some heating. Depending on the timing of the 

front, we may have some minimal instability in our southeastern

counties to enhance showers and support scattered thunderstorms.

Heavy rainfall will still be possible on Saturday in the south 

until the heavier precipitation is out of the area. Temperatures

behind the front will drop back into the 80-85 range but 

unfortunately we do not really scour out the low level moisture.

Dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to near 70 Saturday. High 

pressure builds southeast across Lake Erie on Sunday and we do 

finally mix the dewpoints down a couple degrees into the mid and

upper 60s. Sunday does look to be dry with a strong capping 

inversion near 850mb. Removed any lingering pops from the 

forecast except for just an isolated mention from about Marion 

to Mount Vernon. Light southwest winds will resume on Sunday and

temperatures and temperatures will already start to recover 

with highs back up around 90 along the I-75 corridor. 



&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

The ridge shifts off the East Coast to start the long term with a 

more pronounced trough digging southeast out of Canada. A warm front 

lifts back north Sunday into Monday ahead of this trough with shower 

and thunderstorm activity filling in ahead of the cold front Monday 

afternoon and evening. It seems unlikely activity lingers into 

Tuesday but have a low pop in our southeastern counties for Tuesday. 

This front finally ushers in a better airmass with humidity dropping 

off for the middle of next week. Temperatures remain seasonable

in the low to mid 80s. 



&&



.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...

Similar pattern as the past few days continue with the potential for 

diurnal showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening 

from 18Z to 00Z. Location will generally be along the frontal 

boundary that is draped across Northern Ohio with higher

confidence near KTOL, KCLE, and KYNG given current placement and

progression of thunderstorms. There is lower confidence in 

thunderstorms near KCAK, KMFD, and KFDY so opted to continue 

with the PROB30 group and VCTS and no thunderstorms are 

expected at KERI. Within thunderstorms, non-VFR visibility can 

be expected along with gusty downdrafts. Thunderstorms will be 

generally moving in easterly direction throughout the afternoon,

though will be moving slowly. Winds will generally be light 

outside of the thunderstorms, staying less than 10 knots out of 

a northerly direction. 



Towards the end of and after the TAF period, a cold front will be 

approaching from the west moving east. Winds will increase to around 

10 knots with the potential for gusts from 15-20 knots, mainly for 

the western terminals. There is also the potential for thunderstorms 

at the end of the TAF period for KCLE, but opted to omit it due

to low confidence in timing and coverage. 



Outlook...Non-VFR conditions expected with afternoon/evening 

thunderstorms and showers through the weekend with Sunday being the 

highest confidence in VFR conditions. Non-VFR conditions

expected to start next week through Tuesday with an approaching

low pressure system.



&&



.MARINE...

Winds continue in a similar pattern as previous days, a generally 

light, northerly winds and onshore flow will continue this afternoon 

into the early evening as winds will become more easterly overnight 

into Friday morning. A low pressure system will approach from the 

west and winds will veer to be out of the south at 10 knots and then 

shift to be southwesterly at 10-15 knots Friday night into Saturday 

as a cold front moves across the lake. Waves will stay 2 feet or 

less through Friday night and build to 3 feet after the cold front 

passes on Saturday. High pressure will build in briefly on Sunday 

and winds will be around 5 knots across the lake with waves less 

than 2 feet. Ahead of the next cold front winds will be

predominately out of the south at 10 knots then veer to be 

westerly behind the front by Tuesday with waves building back 

up to 2-3 feet.



&&



.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OH...None.

PA...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...10

NEAR TERM...10

SHORT TERM...10

LONG TERM...10

AVIATION...23

MARINE...23

