FXUS61 KILN 261327

AFDILN



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wilmington OH

927 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

Hot and humid conditions, along with scattered afternoon and evening

thunderstorms, will continue through Friday. Precipitation chances 

will then continue at times into early next week. Temperatures 

will return to more seasonable readings toward mid next week.



&&



.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Mid level ridging remains in place over the Ohio and Tennessee 

Valleys, leading to another hot and humid day across the region. 

This will allow for strong to extreme instability to develop through

the day with scattered storms developing once again through the 

afternoon hours. In fact, as of 13z, some Cu is already bubbling, 

suggesting that CI may begin prior to 18z. With light flow through 

the column and PWs in the 1.5 to 2 inch range, locally heavy rainfall

will be possible this afternoon. It will also be tough to rule out 

isolated damaging wind gusts with some of the stronger storms given 

the ripening thermo/DCAPE environment. Highs this afternoon will be 

in the lower 90s. As a result, heat indices in the 100 to 105 degree 

range will once again be possible outside of storm activity.



&&



.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

Scattered thunderstorms will likely continue into this evening 

before tapering off as we start to lose the diurnal component heading

into the overnight hours. It will be warm and muggy tonight with 

lows in the low to mid 70s. 



The mid level ridge will begin to flatten out a bit through Friday 

with heights not quite as high as the past couple of days. As a 

result, temperatures will be a tad lower with afternoon highs in the

upper 80s to lower 90s. Still though, the heat and humidity will 

lead to afternoon heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s, and 

will maintain the current Heat Advisory through 8 PM Friday. 

Meanwhile, afternoon instability will once again lead to scattered 

thunderstorm activity through the afternoon and into early Friday 

evening.



&&



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

The mid level ridge will slowly flatten out through the weekend with

a quasi-zonal flow pattern setting up across the Great Lakes region.

This will result in temperatures not being quite as warm with 

daytime highs mostly in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees through 

Monday. The combination of afternoon instability and the potential 

for some weak mid level energy moving through the flow will lead to 

continued chances for showers and thunderstorms each day. 



A mid level trough will eventually develop over the Great Lakes 

region heading into mid week. This will lead to a return to drier and 

more seasonable temperatures, with daytime highs mostly in the mid 

80s.



&&



.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into

early evening as the airmass destabilizes through the day. Will cover

this with a prob30 for -TSRA at all of the TAF sites. This activity 

will dissipate as we head into this evening, leaving mostly clear 

skies overnight. With light winds, some patchy fog will be possible 

late tonight into early Friday morning. This could lead to some MVFR

vsby restrictions toward daybreak, especially at KLUK. 



OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible each day Friday through Monday, 

mainly in the afternoon and evening.



&&



.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-

     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.

KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ089>100.

IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-

     080.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...JGL

NEAR TERM...KC/JGL

SHORT TERM...JGL

LONG TERM...JGL

AVIATION...JGLILN-327302