FXUS61 KILN 261706

AFDILN



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wilmington OH

106 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

Warm and humid conditions, along with scattered afternoon and 

evening thunderstorms, will continue through this weekend. 

Precipitation chances will then continue at times into early next 

week, peaking on Monday. Temperatures will return to more seasonable 

readings toward the middle of next week, with drier conditions 

expected.



&&



.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Strong to extreme instby, with SBCAPE on order of 3500+ J/kg, has

developed with little to no inhibition. This has allowed for CI to 

evolve across the area in a fairly widespread, albeit very 

disorganized, fashion. The good news is that the LL/deep-layer flow 

remains incredibly weak, so storm organization is not expected. The 

caveat to that, however, is that storm motions will be slow. This, 

combined with PWs in the 1.5 to 2 inch range, lends itself to some 

potential for locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding in the 

most persistent activity. It will also be tough to rule out isolated 

damaging wind gusts with some of the stronger storms given the 

ripening thermo/DCAPE environment, but this potential should remain 

isolated in nature.



The one thing we may not see as much of today is strong outflow/gust

fronts emanating in all directions quite like we did yesterday. This

had a stabilizing effect on the environment into mid evening across 

a large part of the area, which allowed for a quicker "downturn" in 

coverage than is expected today. Do think that, with the unstable 

environment and lack of any pronounced outflows expanding across a 

large part of the area, activity will percolate until sunset. 



Many spots may have already reached their daytime highs, particularly

as storm coverage increases through mid/late afternoon. Nevertheless,

highs will top out in the lower 90s for most locales, with heat index

values peaking around 100F. 



&&



.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

Scattered/disorganized pulsy convection will continue through sunset

before dissipating thereafter, yielding mostly dry conditions area-

wide for tonight. It will be another warm/muggy night, with lows only

dipping into the lower/mid 70s. 



The mid level ridge will begin to flatten even more through Friday 

with heights not quite as anamolously-high as the past couple of 

days. As a result, temps will be a tad lower with afternoon highs in

the upper 80s to lower 90s. Even with this, humidity (dewpoints) will

still be in the lower 70s, leading to peak afternoon heat index

values in the upper 90s to lower 100s. As such, will maintain the 

current Heat Advisory through 8 PM Friday. 



Meanwhile, some diurnally-driven SHRA/TSRA are expected once again,

particularly for locales near/E of I-71 where the best instby should

develop. The overall environment may be /slightly/ less conducive to

gusty/damaging wind potential, but the overall high CAPE/low shear 

environment remains largely unchanged from today. Any slow-moving or

persistent activity will also bring with it an isolated flood

potential, too. 



&&



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Upper ridge flattens out but maintains increased heights ~590dm at 

this level, then begins a drop Sun night ahead of a very weak s/w 

trough. The upper trough crosses CWA Mon night and nw flow aloft 

takes its place. GFS never really drops much, maintaining a 30dm 

increase over the ECMWF, and has support from the Canadian model. 

Ahead of a building high pressure ridge in the upper Midwest, 

heights begin to increase again on Thurs per Canadian and GFS. Euro 

at this time continues a cool nw flow and lower heights. Ridge 

should be over local area later on Friday. 



Saturday looks to have a weak fropa and associated shower/tstorm 

activity, with a notable decrease in the evening. A chance of precip 

exists on Sun, decreasing again overnight. This precip threat looks 

to be an artifact of the NBM and should be dry in the north with 

lower chances to the south per deterministic models and neutral/weak 

height increases. Mon/Mon night stand a good chance for more 

convective activity given the upper trough and a trailing surface 

fropa. Once again, NBM pops on Tuesday are likely noise from the 

blended ensemble members. It will depend on if front is still in the 

southeast in the morning with a potential for lingering showers, but 

fcst should be trimmed by 20-30% on Tues and continued dry through 

Thurs. 



Temps drop into the mid 80s on Sat and hover near 90 Sun/Mon, 

dropping to the mid 80s for the remainder of the fcst. Lows near 70 

will drop to the mid 60s Tues night, lingering there for rest of 

fcst. 



&&



.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Scattered but disorganized SHRA/TSRA are expected through early 

evening and have covered this potential with a Prob30 for -TSRA at 

all of the TAF sites. Although VFR conditions should prevail, some 

abrupt changes in VSBYs and wind speed/direction will be the main 

concern should any one of the sites be impacted by SHRA/TSRA. This 

activity will dissipate toward/beyond sunset, leaving mostly clear 

skies overnight.



With light winds, some patchy BR/FG will be possible late tonight 

into early Friday morning, particularly if heavy rain occurs at one 

of the sites. This could lead to some MVFR VSBY restrictions toward 

daybreak, favored in the river valley locales, including KLUK. 



More of the same is on tap for Friday, although coverage of 

SHRA/TSRA activity should be a bit lower than is the case today. 

Additionally, SW sfc flow will increase a bit into the afternoon,

with SW winds on the order of 10-15kts. 



OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible each day through Monday, mainly

in the afternoon and evening.



&&



.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-

     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.

KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ089>100.

IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-

     080.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...KC

NEAR TERM...KC 

SHORT TERM...KC 

LONG TERM...Franks 

AVIATION...KC

