FXUS61 KOKX 261232

AFDOKX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service New York NY

832 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front will drop slowly south across the area this morning

and down into the Mid Atlantic states later tonight where it will

become nearly stationary on Friday. The front will then return 

north as a warm front Friday night into Saturday. A frontal wave

and cold front attempt to push through Saturday night, and weak

high pressure builds in behind it early next week. The boundary

returns north as a warm front late Monday. A cold front then 

follows Tuesday, with high pressure returning once again mid 

next week.



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Cold front has passed and will continue to work farther to the 

south. At the same time, the airmass will be stabilizing with a 

gradually cooler airmass filtering in from the northeast. 

Marginal instability this morning and some lift just north of 

the surface cold front has produced showers mainly east of the

NYC metro. The shower activity will continue working east of the

area through mid morning. A few brief downpours are possible.  



Some weak impulses at the southern edge of the westerlies may 

send additional shower activity in from the west this evening, 

but it will struggle to get too far east as high pressure 

continues to build into the area. Only expecting a 20-30 percent

chance of showers tonight. Any isolated thunderstorms will be 

limited to NYC and points west early. These should be weak and 

dissipate quickly. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies during

this time.



High temperatures for the day will actually occur before

daybreak, but this afternoon should see temperatures in the

upper 70s to possibly the lower 80s. Lows tonight will be in the

60s. Neither of which are too far off from normal. In addition,

dew points will drop through the 60s today and into the mid 50s

to around 60 tonight.



&&



.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

It remains unsettled during this time and cool as the area will

be under the influence of high pressure ridging down along the 

New England coast. It will gradually retreat Friday night into 

Saturday as the stationary front to the south returns northward

as a warm front. The chance of showers remains low through 

Saturday morning. However, as the warm front draws closer to the

area, the airmass will begin to gradually destabilize with dew 

points rising through the 60s to around 70. There remains some 

uncertainty as to whether the warm front gets to the north of 

the area on Saturday, but a consensus approach would suggest it 

stalls in close proximity as a frontal wave approaches from the

west. The latter of which will result in increasing chances of 

showers and thunderstorms toward the late afternoon/evening.



Due to the uncertainty in the frontal location on Saturday, the

temperature forecast will be a challenge. The NBM deterministic

during this time is skewed toward the 25th percentile for highs.

Much of the area is showing about 10 degree range from the 25th

to 75th percentiles. Thus, while cooler temperatures are in the

forecast, Saturday in particular is a lower confidence forecast.

Should the warm front get through, it would be a warmer day.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Behind a frontal passage Saturday night, briefly turning quieter for 

the second half of the weekend with weak ridging and surface high 

pressure attempting to build in as the boundary that moved through 

stalls to the south over the Mid Atlantic.



Any lingering rain looks to taper Sunday morning, and allow for a 

predominantly dry day, that could persist thru much of Monday as 

well. Eventually, the stalled boundary to the south looks to return 

back north as a digging trough over the Great Lakes presses east. 

This will reintroduce wet weather late Monday and Monday night as 

the warm front lifts through. Showers and thunderstorms possible 

ahead of the trailing cold frontal passage, progged sometime 

Tuesday. In its wake, cooler and drier conditions by mid next week 

as high pressure returns.



&&



.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

A cold front pushes further south of the region through the 

day, with high pressure off to the north.



Mainly VFR with brief MVFR ceilings this morning, mainly through

about 16z. Showers remain possible east of KBDR and KISP. An

isolated shower possible elsewhere thru the day, but largely 

dry until increasing chances in the evening and first part of 

the night after 00Z Fri. Cigs lower toward MVFR early Fri AM, 

improving by late morning.



NE flow increases this morning with speeds 10-15 kt. The flow 

veers more E this afternoon and evening. Occasional gusts 

toward 20 kt possible both this morning and afternoon.



 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

MVFR ceilings should improve to VFR 14-16z. 



Occasional 20 kt gusts possible thru the day.



.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 



Friday through Sunday: MVFR or lower possible. Chance of showers.



Monday: Mainly VFR.



Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, 

can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90



&&



.MARINE...

SCA has been issued for the ocean waters tonight into Friday due

to a strengthening easterly flow with gusts to around 25 kt and

seas building to 4 to 7 ft. Occasional 25 kt gusts will be 

possible today as seas build to around 4 ft. Winds and seas will

then diminish Friday night as the gradient weakens across the 

area. 



Waters are forecast to largely remain below Small Craft Advisory 

(SCA) criteria late this weekend through mid next week.



&&



.HYDROLOGY...

Localized heavy downpours are possible this morning, especially

eastern LI and SE CT. Minor nuisance poor drainage flooding is 

possible.



&&



.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Persistent E flow after a cold frontal passage will lead to 

widespread minor coastal flooding in NY Harbor, the back bays of

S Queens/Nassau, Peconic Bay, and the Westchester/SW CT 

coastline with the this evening's high tide cycle.



Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for up to a foot of

inundation along the shoreline of the back bays of S

Queens/Nassau/Brooklyn, as well as along the western LI Sound 

in Westchester and Fairfield in SW CT. A Coastal Flood Statement

has been issued for up to a half foot of inundation along the 

vulnerable areas along the Peconic and Shinnecock Bays, as well 

as portions of the Lower NY Harbor.



Additional minor coastal flooding is possible again during

Friday evening's high tide, though water levels should begin to

come down slightly.



There is a moderate rip current risk for both Thursday and

Friday due to a building E swell and east to west sweep along

the Atlantic beachfront.



&&



.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT 

     Friday for CTZ009.

NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT 

     Friday for NYZ071.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT 

     tonight for NYZ074-075-178-179.

NJ...None.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Friday 

     for ANZ350-353-355.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...DR/DW

NEAR TERM...DW

SHORT TERM...DW

LONG TERM...DR

AVIATION...DR/DS

MARINE...DR/DW

HYDROLOGY...DR/DW

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

