FXUS61 KOKX 261632

AFDOKX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service New York NY

1232 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front will continue pushing south through the afternoon

and then stall across the Mid Atlantic States tonight into

Friday. The front will then return north as a warm front Friday

night into Saturday. A frontal wave and cold front attempt to 

push through Saturday night, and weak high pressure builds in 

behind it early next week. The boundary returns north as a warm 

front late Monday. A cold front then follows Tuesday, with high 

pressure returning once again mid next week.



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Cold front has passed and will continue to work farther to the 

south. At the same time, the airmass will be stabilizing with a 

gradually cooler air mass filtering in from the northeast. 



Some weak impulses at the southern edge of the westerlies may 

send additional shower activity in from the west this evening, 

but it will struggle to get too far east as high pressure 

continues to build into the area. Only expecting a 20-30 percent

chance of showers tonight. Any isolated thunderstorms will be 

limited to NYC and points west early. These should be weak and 

dissipate quickly. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies during

this time. 



High temperatures for the day will actually occur before

daybreak, but this afternoon should see temperatures in the

upper 70s to possibly the lower 80s in the NYC metro area, and

lower/mid 70s to the north/east. Dew points will be mostly

55-60. 



&&



.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

It should remain cooler and unsettled during this time under the

influence of high pressure ridging down along the New England 

coast. The high will gradually retreat Friday night into

Saturday as the front to the south returns northward as a warm 

front. The chance of showers remains low through Saturday 

morning. However, as the warm front draws closer, the air mass

will begin to gradually destabilize, with dew points rising

through the 60s to around 70. There remains some uncertainty as

to whether the warm front lifts to the north on Saturday--a

consensus approach suggests it should stall nearby as a frontal

wave approaches from the west. This wave should bring increasing

chances of showers and thunderstorms toward late 

afternoon and evening.



Due to the uncertainty in the frontal location on Saturday, the 

temperature forecast will be a challenge. The NBM deterministic 

during this time is skewed toward the 25th percentile for highs.

Much of the area is showing about 10 degree range from the 25th

to 75th percentiles. Thus, while cooler temperatures are in the

forecast, Saturday in particular is a lower confidence 

forecast. Should the warm front get through, it would be a 

warmer day.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Behind a frontal passage Saturday night, briefly turning quieter

for the second half of the weekend with weak ridging and 

surface high pressure attempting to build in as the boundary 

that moved through stalls to the south over the Mid Atlantic.



Any lingering rain looks to taper Sunday morning, and allow for

a predominantly dry day, that could persist thru much of 

Monday as well. Eventually, the stalled boundary to the south 

looks to return back north as a digging trough over the Great 

Lakes presses east. This will reintroduce wet weather late 

Monday and Monday night as the warm front lifts through. Showers

and thunderstorms possible ahead of the trailing cold frontal 

passage, progged sometime Tuesday. In its wake, cooler and drier

conditions by mid next week as high pressure returns.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A cold front pushes further south of the terminals through the 

day, with high pressure off to the north.



MVFR ceilings this morning will improve to VFR. VFR should then

prevail into this evening with MVFR returning overnight into

Friday morning. An isolated shower remains possible through the

afternoon. Scattered showers are possible this evening, mainly

west of the NYC terminals. 



NE flow 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt this morning. Gusts should

become occasional this afternoon. The flow veers more E this 

afternoon and evening. 



 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Improvement to VFR may be off by 1-2 hours.



Gusts could be frequent through 18z. 



.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 



Friday through Sunday: MVFR or lower possible. Chance of showers.



Monday: Mainly VFR.



Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, 

can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90



&&



.MARINE...

SCA issued for all waters with E winds gusting to 25-30 kt and

ocean seas 4-5 ft well ahead of previous forecast, and still

expected to build to 4-7 ft. Winds on the harbor and south 

shore bays should diminish early this afternoon, then on the 

remaining non ocean waters by late afternoon. Seas will then 

diminish Friday night. 



&&



.HYDROLOGY...

No hydrologic impacts are currently expected through early next

week.



&&



.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Persistent E flow after a cold frontal passage will lead to 

widespread minor coastal flooding in NY Harbor, the back bays of

S Queens/Nassau, Peconic Bay, and the Westchester/SW CT 

coastline with the this evening's high tide cycle.



Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for up to a foot of

inundation along the shoreline of the back bays of S

Queens/Nassau/Brooklyn, as well as along the western LI Sound 

in Westchester and Fairfield in SW CT. A Coastal Flood Statement

has been issued for up to a half foot of inundation along the 

vulnerable areas along the Peconic and Shinnecock Bays, as well 

as portions of the Lower NY Harbor.



Additional minor coastal flooding is possible again during

Friday evening's high tide, though water levels should begin to

come down slightly.



There is a moderate rip current risk for both today and Friday

due to a building E swell and E-W sweep along the Atlantic 

beachfront.



&&



.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT 

     Friday for CTZ009.

NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT 

     Friday for NYZ071.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT 

     tonight for NYZ074-075-178-179.

NJ...None.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ331-

     332-335-340.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ338-

     345.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...BG/DR/DW

NEAR TERM...BG

SHORT TERM...DW

LONG TERM...DR

AVIATION...DR/DS

MARINE...BG/DR/DW

HYDROLOGY...DR/DW

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

