FXUS61 KOKX 262335

AFDOKX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service New York NY

735 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure over New England will remain in control through

Friday. A warm front will then begin to approach Friday night,

lift through Saturday morning, and stall to the north. As a 

frontal wave passes Saturday into Saturday night, the front will

drift back south and stall over the area Sunday into Sunday

night. The warm front will surge north Monday into Tuesday in 

response to a passing Canadian low. A cold front will pass

Tuesday night, followed by high pressure during mid week.



&&



.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

As of 330 PM, except for Staten Island and nearby portions of 

NE NJ, overcast skies cover nearly all the CWA. Meanwhile, a 

few weakening showers have made it into Orange County, and do 

not expect this activity to make it much farther south/east 

before sunset. For tonight, expect cloudy skies throughout, 

with only slight chance of a stray shower across parts of the 

NYC metro area and Long Island, with low temps in the upper 

50s/lower 60s.



&&



.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Winds on Fri should veer more to the SE, with skies remaining

mostly cloudy and only the slight chance of an afternoon showers

from NYC north/west. Do not expect much difference in high temps

compared to those of Thu afternoon, perhaps slightly cooler

across Long Island and slightly warmer across interior S CT,

with highs generally 70-75. 



With the approach of the warm front Fri night, expect a non-

diurnal temp curve, with evening lows in the lower/mid 60s. then

temps remaining steady or slowly rising overnight to the

mid/upper 60s, with dewpoints also following suit. Also expect 

chance of showers and possible tstms with the approaching front,

and some patchy fog along the coast.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Key Messages:



* Warmer temperatures from a warm front Saturday. 



* Showers and thunderstorms with brief heavy downpours Saturday

  into Saturday night. 



* Mostly dry Sunday into early Monday.



* Unsettled weather returns late Monday into Tuesday night. 



* Drying out mid-week next week.



On Saturday, a warm front that was stalled to our south advances 

through in the morning and stalls to our north in the afternoon.

This will lead to southerly flow that will advect in warmer, 

wetter air. Confidence in the warm front's passage has been low 

confidence prior to this, but most 12Z guidance now agrees on 

its passage north through our area. High temperatures have been 

adjusted slightly higher than the deterministic NBM (which is 

still on the cool side around the 25th percentile). Highs on 

Saturday are now forecast to be in the upper-80s for 

southwestern portions of the CWA (near NYC and NE NJ) and are in

the low-80s/upper-70s for northeastern portions of the CWA 

(near SE CT). 



As the warm front passes on Saturday, a frontal wave passes to

our north. This occurs in tandem with a mid-level shortwave 

that increases upper-level energy aloft. Given warmer 

temperatures and higher dewpoints, scattered to numerous showers

and thunderstorms are forecast Saturday into Saturday night. 

Some of which could produce brief heavy downpours. Therefore, 

WPC has gone with a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for 

areas N & W of NYC where some of the best dynamics are expected.

MLCAPE could peak to around 2000-2500 J/kg in this area. Given 

warm temperatures and ample moisture, this could lead to 

efficient rainfall rates. In addition to available instability, 

expected shear and sounding profiles look conducive for possible

isolated severe weather N&W of NYC Saturday evening, and 

possibly extending east of NYC. Primary risk would be for 

damaging winds. As a result, SPC has issued a marginal risk for 

severe weather for the western half of our CWA. 



The warm front advances back south Saturday night. This front

then stalls over the area Sunday into Sunday night. Weak high 

pressure takes hold during this period as the frontal wave exits

northeast. This period will be mainly dry, though an isolated 

shower can not be ruled out. Temperatures have been forecasted 

closer to the NBM given slight variations in where Saturday 

morning and stalls north. A frontal wave passes Saturday into 

Saturday night. Saturday night, the warm front pushes back south

and stalls over our area Sunday into Sunday night with weak 

high pressure present. We'll be warm sectored as the warm front 

surges north Monday in response to a passing Canadian low. This 

lasts into Tuesday until a cold front passes Tuesday night. High

the front stalls over us on Sunday among available 12Z 

guidance. 



The stalled front surges back north as a warm front Monday,

being captured by an occluded Canadian low and mid-level 

shortwave. This leaves us warm-sectored until a cold front 

passes Tuesday night. Expecting more unsettled weather through 

this timeframe. 



Following the cold front Tuesday night, high pressure takes hold 

again, leaving us dry for the middle of the week. Temperatures 

are currently forecast to remain around or slightly above 

climatological norms Sunday through mid-week next week.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A frontal boundary remains nearly stationary over the Mid 

Atlantic through Friday. Meanwhile, high pressure builds in from

the northeast tonight, and remains through Friday.



VFR early this evening will lower to MVFR 02Z to 03Z, except at

KGON and KBDR which remain VFR. Conditions likely improve to VFR

Friday afternoon, and may be a couple of hours earlier. The

improvement will be short-lived as conditions lower to MVFR, and

possibly to IFR toward 00Z Saturday. However, KBDR, KHPN, and

KGON likely remain VFR.



Winds remain NE to E through Friday morning, with any remaining

gusts ending early this evening. Gusts develop once again Friday

morning, likely less than 20kt, and winds shift to the

southeast during the afternoon.





 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...



Amendments likely for timing of lowering ceilings to MVFR by

late this evening, and with uncertain timing. Also, amendments

likely Friday for timing of improvement to VFR, and then 

lowering again to MVFR late day.





.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 



Friday night: MVFR ceilings early, lowering to IFR late. Vsby

restrictions in fog is also likely late.



Saturday: IFR or lower in the morning. Showers likely with a

chance of thunderstorms and MVFR in the afternoon and evening.



Sunday and Monday: Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and

thunderstorms late Monday afternoon.



Monday night and Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms with MVFR

possible, especially Tuesday afternoon and evening. 



Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component

forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90



&&



.MARINE...

SCA remains in effect for the ocean waters and has been extended

into Fri night. Seas 4-5 ft should peak at 5-7 ft from very 

late tonight into Fri morning while persistent E flow increases

to 20-25 kt. Winds drop below 25 kt by Fri afternoon, but seas

should take until late Fri night to subside below 5 ft.



&&



.HYDROLOGY...

Brief heavy downpours are possible late Saturday into Saturday

night, and could lead to isolated instances of nuisance 

flooding in urban, low lying, and/or poor drainage locations.



&&



.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect for tonight's high tide

cycle along the shorelines of NY Harbor, Jamaica Bay, and S 

Nassau, well as along the western Sound in Westchester andFairfield in SW CT, with up to a foot of inundation expected. 



Coastal Flood Statement was also issued for up to a half foot 

of inundation along the vulnerable areas along the Peconic and 

Shinnecock Bays. Water levels near Riverhead could be locally 

higher, with up to a foot of inundation possible there. 



Additional spotty minor coastal flooding is possible again

during the Friday evening high tide cycle, as water levels come

down slightly. 



There is a high rip current risk for all south shore Long Island

and NYC beaches Friday. Surf heights of 3-3.5 feet with a long

shore current will lead to this high risk. Surf height lowers to

2 feet on Saturday with onshore flow, so the rip current risk 

will lower to moderate on Saturday.



&&



.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT 

     Friday for CTZ009.

NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT 

     Friday for NYZ071.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ072-

     074-075-178-179.

     High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Friday through Friday 

     evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.

NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ006-

     106-108.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-

     355.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...BG/BR

NEAR TERM...BG

SHORT TERM...BG

LONG TERM...BR

AVIATION...MET

MARINE...BG/BR

HYDROLOGY...BG/BR

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

