FXUS61 KRNK 261421

AFDRNK



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Blacksburg VA

1021 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will continue to dominate the area for the next 

several days resulting in hot and humid conditions, but will 

gradually weaken. As it does so, afternoon and evening

thunderstorms will increase in coverage into the weekend. A 

cold front may cross the area early next week bringing

temperatures down closer to normal.



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

As of 1020 AM EDT Thursday...



No changes were made to the forecast this morning as it appears 

to remain on track. 





Previous Discussion:



Key Messages:



1) Heat advisory Noon-7PM for the Roanoke Valley eastward. 



2) Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with

marginal risk for severe and excessive rainfall. 





High pressure which continues to result in above normal

temperatures is gradually weakening...the subsidence inversion 

aloft is showing signs of letting thermals break through during

the afternoon. Yesterday was rather active over southside VA 

and into the piedmont of NC. The combination of weakening 

subsidence and convergence from a degrading upper low which 

moved inland from the Atlantic allowing for strong to severe 

storms during the evening. Similar conditions today will again 

lead to storm development this afternoon and evening. The 

degrading upper low is positioned over AL/GA caught underneath 

the weakening anticyclone centered over the OH/TN Valleys. A 

deep easterly flux of moisture is streaming west bound off the 

Atlantic, this very moist environment ripe for thunderstorms 

once we reach convective temperatures during the afternoon. CAMS

suggest storm development will initiate along the spine of the

Blue Ridge then propagate westward with the mean wind, albeit

very slowly per forecast mean wind under 10 mph. 



Both CAPE and DCAPE will be at a premium today...strong daytime

heating leading to SBCAPES above 2500 j/kg and DCAPES of 1000

J/KG. Though vertical shear will be weak, steep low-level lapse

rates and precipitation loading could support isolated wind 

damage with downbursts from mid afternoon into the evening.

A marginal risk for severe storms with potential for excessive 

rainfall are being highlighted by SPC and WPC. 



Similar to yesterday expecting heat index values to push 105

degrees from the Roanoke Valley eastward. This area under a heat

advisory from Noon through 7PM.



Tonight, loss of daytime heating will bring temperatures back

down along with demise of the deep convection. Looking at a warm

night with patchy fog where it rains today and within the

relatively cooler mountain valleys.



&&



.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...



Key Message:



1. Hot and humid through the weekend, with daily chances of 

afternoon showers and thunderstorms.



The upper ridge that been holding over the eastern US will start to 

flatten and weaken through the weekend, though flow around the 

surface high will continue to advect moisture and warm air into the 

region. Thus, hot and humid conditions will persist through the 

weekend, though a few degrees cooler than earlier days this week. 

The additional moisture and plentiful daytime heating will keep 

chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast each afternoon 

and evening through the period. For Friday, the greatest chances 

look to be along and west of the Blue Ridge, as the terrain helps to 

trigger some convection. A stalled front will drape over northern 

VA, which will also serve as a focus for thunderstorm development. 

As this feature lifts northward through the weekend, showers and 

storms will become more scattered for Saturday and Sunday. Damaging 

wind gusts will be the primary hazard for any storms that do 

develop, though some small hail is possible.



&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...



Key Messages:



1. Hot temperatures and daily chances of showers and thunderstorms 

continue.



2. More widespread thunderstorms possible Tuesday with the passage 

of a cold front, which may also bring some relief from the heat.



The upper pattern becomes much more zonal by the beginning of the 

work week, with a trough developing over the Midwest by Monday, 

which will track towards the eastern US by Tuesday, bringing a cold 

front towards and eventually across the area. Most likely timing for 

this front at this time looks to be Tuesday into Wednesday, and so 

there is a higher chance for more widespread coverage of 

thunderstorms on Tuesday. Behind this front, a bit of relief from 

the above normal heat is expected, as the airmass behind the front 

looks to be drier and slightly cooler, bringing temperatures in the 

upper 70s in the west to upper 80s in the east, and dewpoints in the 

low 60s to low 70s.



&&



.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

As of 700 AM EDT Thursday...



Mainly VFR conditions expected for much of the TAF period for 

all terminals. 



Exception being some LIFR fog at LWB and possibly MVFR at 

LYH/DAN/BCB during the early mornings, and any local sub-VFR

associated with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms.



Winds will stay mainly under 5kts and variable in direction 

under the high pressure through Thursday night. Thunderstorms

may produce gusts of 25-40kts. 



EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...



High pressure should maintain VFR conditions into early next

week outside of any storms and late night/early morning fog.



&&



.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

VA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ022-023-

     033>035-043>047-058-059.

NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ004>006-020.

WV...None.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...PM

NEAR TERM...EB/PM

SHORT TERM...AS

LONG TERM...AS

AVIATION...PM

