FXUS62 KCAE 261801

AFDCAE



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Columbia SC

201 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

A few stronger thunderstorms are possible again today and 

Friday as an upper low lingers near the forecast area. Typical 

summertime weather expected this weekend and into early next 

week with near to slightly above normal temperatures and daily 

shower and thunderstorm chances.



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Key Message(s):



- Temps back near average for late June this afternoon with some

  storms across the western-northern Midlands.



The broad upper low continues to spin away to our south, quite

easily seen in the water vapor imagery this afternoon. A

persistent band of subsidence and dry aloft is wrapping around

on the north side of this low and will generally cap us out

today for much of the forecast area. As of 2pm, there isn't 

even any flat cu out there, rare for late June. There is some 

persistent upslope flow and better moisture convergence in the 

higher elevations across the Upstate and mountains and strong 

convection will continue into the evening up there. These could

produce strong enough outflows this evening to help trigger 

some storms across the western Midlands. But overall, dry air 

and synoptic subsidence will limit both coverage and strength of

any storms that develop despite some modest instability of 

1000-1500 J/kg of ML CAPE. The Marginal Risk continues but 

remains primarily north of I-20 and all hi-res guidance and 

mesoanalysis continues to support the limited coverage (if any) 

in the Midlands. 



&&



.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 



Key Message(s):



- Upper low continues to slowly work northward Friday, though it 

will be weakening.



- Forcing from the upper low may allow another chance for strong to 

marginally strong storms. 



- More typical summer conditions remain expected for the weekend. 



The upper low currently positioned over Florida will continue to 

drift northward through the early part of the period before finally 

dissipating during the weekend. While no significant surge of 

moisture is expected, southerly flow Friday will allow PWAT's to 

remain near 1.75-1.85", as well as temperatures in the low to mid 

90s with continuing muggy conditions. The lingering forcing from the 

upper low looks to drive scattered convection during the afternoon 

and into the evening across the region, but the 12z HRRR continues 

to favor locations along and north of I-20, with possible convection 

forming along the sea breeze later in the afternoon. The risk for a 

couple strong to marginally severe storms exists as the environment 

continues to be characterized by modest to strong instability, 

1000- 1300 J/kg of DCAPE with a strong inverted v profile, and 

fairly weak shear. Forecast soundings also depict some dry air 

in the mid levels with cloud layer shear values near 25-30 kts 

and thus while potential damaging wind gusts would be the 

primary threat in any strong cells, some marginally severe hail 

cannot be ruled out.



After Friday, more typical summer conditions take over for the 

weekend as the upper low begins to fizzle out and the region remains 

under the influence of the subtropical ridge, keeping near average 

temperatures and muggy conditions. PWAT's near 1.8" each day and 

building of diurnal instability should allow scattered pulse 

convection during the afternoon/evening Saturday and Sunday as 

convective temps between 92-95F are neared. Forecast soundings 

Saturday still depict a decent inverted v profile and moderate to 

strong DCAPE values, thus a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out 

at this time but widespread severe weather is not anticipated. 



&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 



Key Message(s):



- Near average temperatures and typical summer diurnal 

  convection expected into the early week.



- A possible cold front nears the region toward the mid-week, 

bringing more rain/storm chances, though the severity of any storms 

still needs to be ironed out.



The subtropical ridge remains in place to start the week before 

perhaps getting a bit suppressed toward the middle of the week.

PWAT's and temperatures remain near average much of the early 

week with diurnal shower/storm chances still possible, though 

the overall severe threat appears fairly low with the generally 

pulse nature of this. By the midweek however global guidance and

ensembles hint that troughing into the Great Lakes region could

start to suppress the ridge some, and possibly bring a slow 

moving cold front near the region with PWAT's raising toward 

125-130% of normal. With the EC Ensemble and GEFS generally 

onboard with this solution, PoP's chances are bit higher toward 

the midweek, but details regarding any potential severe weather 

will come into better focus in the coming days with more medium 

range guidance reaching into this period. In general, 

temperatures into the midweek should be near average to slightly

below, depending on when the front actually passes through the 

CWA.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR conditions expected through Friday morning, with some

morning fog-stratus possible.



Clear skies with only some isolated cu likely this afternoon for

all TAF's sites. Convection should remain well north and west of

all TAF sites this evening, so no thunder mention moving

forward. Winds will remain somewhat 5-10knots and variable this

afternoon before going calm overnight. Some fog and/or stratus

is possible Friday morning. Confidence in any IFR or LIFR

restrictions is low currently, more likely MVFR restriction 

type setup near sunrise for all sites except DNL. Convection 

chances increases Friday afternoon, but beyond the end of the 

TAF period for now.



EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The potential for fog exists 

each night and morning, especially in locations that receive 

heavy rain. Diurnally driven scattered thunderstorms each 

afternoon through the weekend.



&&



.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SC...None.

GA...None.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...

NEAR TERM...

SHORT TERM...

LONG TERM...

AVIATION...

