FXUS62 KILM 261858

AFDILM



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wilmington NC

258 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

Temperatures will remain near to above normal through early next

week with generally near normal rain chances as high pressure 

prevails. An approaching cold front will then bring cooler 

temperatures and elevated rain chances toward the middle of next

week.



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

The hot ridge of high pressure across the Mid Atlantic states should 

slip offshore tonight and become centered off the Carolina coast 

tomorrow. An upper low across Florida will move into southwest 

Georgia by tomorrow afternoon. This should lead to the upper level 

flow veering southeasterly across the Carolinas but without any 

accompanying increase in deep moisture or precipitable water values. 



In the very near term, CAMs continue to show little if any 

thunderstorm development across our area this afternoon or this 

evening. The culprit appears to be very dry mid level air plus 

significantly more stable lapse rates aloft compared to yesterday, 

both inhibiting cumulus clouds from growing. My forecast PoPs are no 

higher than 10 percent through the evening which is below threshold 

for mention in the forecast text. A very modest 20 knot southwest 

low level jet should help hold temps warmer than last night and low-

mid 70s are forecast for most areas. 



850 mb temps expected to range from +19C along the coast to +21C 

inland Friday should again allow temps to rise into the mid 90s 

inland under plenty of sunshine. Dewpoints anticipated to mix down 

into the lower 70s should keep heat indices in the 100-103 range, so 

no Heat Advisory is being considered at this time. Isolated 

afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible but modest mid 

level lapse rates and some residual dry air, especially across North 

Carolina, could limit coverage. Owing to these factors and rather 

dry GFS/NAM MOS output I've bumped down NBM 30-40 PoPs to no higher 

than 20-30 percent.



&&



.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

Key Messages/Highlights:

*Mainly above normal temps and near normal rain chances

*Very low severe storm/flash flood risk



Confidence:

*Moderate to High



Details: High pressure looks to weaken a bit, giving way to slightly 

more troughing. However, rain chances still look to be pretty low 

overall given the general lack of forcing/instability. Rain 

timing/location favors the typical inland areas during 

afternoon/evening peak heating, although could see a few marine 

showers/storms near the coast during the late night/early morning 

period as well. The risk for severe storms is very low given their 

pulse-nature, with the main hazard being isolated damaging wind 

gusts. Temps will generally be a bit above normal with highs in the 

lower to mid 90s away from the cooler coastal areas and lows 

generally in the lower to mid 70s away from the warmer coastal 

areas. 



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Key Messages/Highlights:

*Hot and humid conditions near Heat Advisory levels away from 

the coast through early next week

*Near normal rain chances through Mon, then above normal chances 

starting Tue

*Low severe storm/flash flood risk through the period



Confidence:

*Moderate to High



Details: High pressure should prevail into early next week keeping 

conditions fairly normal/summer-like before an approaching cold 

front mid week leads to cooler temps/higher rain chances, 

especially starting Wed. The lack of deep layer shear implies 

more in the way of pulse/slow-moving storms which favors pretty 

low severe storm chances but a bit higher flash flood risk. Hot 

and humid conditions are expected through the period, although 

heat indices will be highest through early next week before 

cooler/rainier conditions are expected toward mid week. At this 

time we don't anticipate the need for Heat Advisories but could 

certainly come close through Tue, mainly away from the coastal 

areas.



&&



.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR conditions have a high confidence of prevailing over the

coming 24 hours. There a two low probability events that may

bring brief flight category impacts:

- Isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon into early

  this evening mainly between 20z-01z. The probability is too

  low for inclusion in the TAF at this time but there is a 

  10-20 percent likelihood of storms in the vicinity of KILM and

  KLBT.

- Isolated ground fog could develop late tonight with possible

  MVFR visibility at KCRE and KFLO mainly between 07-11z.



Otherwise light mainly southwest winds will increase along the

coast this afternoon due to the daily seabreeze.



Extended Outlook...Brief MVFR/IFR conditions are possible due 

to isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms. The probability of

impacts is less than 30 percent.



&&



.MARINE...

Through Friday...Weak Bermuda High Pressure will maintain a 

southwesterly wind across the Carolinas. Winds should average 

10 knots, but will increase to 15 knots gusting to near 20 knots

through this evening and again tomorrow afternoon nearshore due

to typical seabreeze effects. Seas of 2 to 3 feet are expected 

to continue in a mix of southeast swells every 9 seconds plus 

south-southwest wind waves every 3-4 seconds.



Friday night through Tuesday...High confidence. Mainly a summertime 

pattern with southerly winds prevailing around offshore high 

pressure and inland low pressure. Winds should stay mostly 15 kt or 

less through Monday with a bit more inland troughing Tue leading to 

stronger winds, although still likely staying below Small Craft 

Advisory levels. Seas should stay mostly 4 ft or less.



&&



.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT 

     Friday for NCZ107.

SC...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...ILM

NEAR TERM...TRA

SHORT TERM...RJB

LONG TERM...RJB

AVIATION...TRA

MARINE...TRA/RJB

