FXUS62 KJAX 261255

AFDJAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Jacksonville FL

855 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New UPDATE, AVIATION...



.UPDATE...

Issued at 812 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:

https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf



An outflow boundary from last's night convection was pressing

south across our Suwannee River Valley zones sparking a few

showers and storms generally near and west of the I-75 corridor.

Offshore, spotty shower and thunderstorm activity was occurring 

across our Atlantic coastal waters associated with an upper level

low centered near the central-FL Atlantic coast. Multi-layered

cloudiness created filtered sunshine for many this morning between

departing MCS clouds across our western zones passing waves of

clouds from the upper level low to our SSE. 



By late morning, a few spotty coastal showers or storm will be

possible as the east coast sea breeze develops as well as across

our southern north-central FL zones associated with the

aforementioned outflow boundary. Rain chances shift inland into

the afternoon under easterly steering flow, with somewhat limited

convective depth given some mid-level subsidence noted in the 12z

JAX RAOB as the upper level low center drifts northward over the 

local forecast area into the afternoon. The real focus area for 

higher rain chances and strong to severe storm potential occurs 

later this afternoon and into the early evening where boundary 

mergers occur, especially for our zones near and west of the I-75 

corridor while mostly dry conditions are expected for the beaches 

as drier air 



The 12z JAX sounding continued to show steep mid level lapse rates

around 7.3 degC/km and morning downdraft CAPE of 912 J/kg. 

Although shear is not as strong as yesterday and mid level temps 

are not as cool, there is still plenty of deep layer instability 

for strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening, especially

across the Suwannee River Valley of NE FL where boundary mergers 

occur. In addition to the severe risk, localized heavy rainfall 

could create some localized flooding issues. 



Inland highs will reach the mid 90s to near 90 at the coast with

peak heat index values near 100 inland. 



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 812 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Prevailing VFR conditions under light and variable winds this 

morning until the east coast sea breeze develops and begins to 

press inland. Included VCSH for coastal terminals this morning, 

with VCSH at GNV where an outflow boundary was pressing southward.

Otherwise, the main TS window will be this afternoon as the east 

coast sea breeze moves inland. Higher confidence of TS continues 

at GNV between 20-02z where VCTS and TEMPO group remained with 

VCTS elsewhere, and will add TEMPO groups based on satellite and 

radar trends into the afternoon. Coastal terminals have < 20% of 

afternoon TS so kept VCSH at this time. Multi- layered cloudiness 

will generally shift from east to west across the area through the

forecast period, with more clearing at coastal locations into the

late afternoon and overnight. Winds become light and variable 

inland overnight with a weak land breeze bringing SSW winds to 

coastal terminals 06-12z Friday with dry conditions. 



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  94  71  93  70 /  30  30  60  40 

SSI  89  77  89  75 /  20  20  20  20 

JAX  93  72  93  72 /  20  20  60  40 

SGJ  89  74  91  74 /  20  10  50  30 

GNV  95  71  93  72 /  60  50  60  40 

OCF  94  71  92  73 /  70  50  50  20 



&&



.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.

GA...None.

AM...None.

&&



$$

