FXUS62 KJAX 261749

AFDJAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Jacksonville FL

149 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...



.NEAR TERM...

Issued at 127 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:

https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf



Showers and inland storms were edging inland/west ahead of the 

dominant east coast sea breeze with a few airmass storms popping 

across inland NE FL. Coastal locations will be mostly dry into the

evening while the best coverage of afternoon and evening storms

focuses near and west of the I-75 corridor. A few strong to 

severe storms are still expected and will capable of localized 

wind gusts of 40-60 mph given high DCAPEs and seasonally steep 

mid level lapse rates of around -7 degC/km. Locally heavy rainfall

is also a hazard this evening where boundary mergers occur, again

focused across our inland Suwannee River Valley zones where sea 

breezes and outflows converge into the early evening as storm 

motion weakens. Precipitation will taper off through midnight 

with lingering debris clouds as the upper level low near the 

central FL Atlantic coast migrates northward toward south GA 

through daybreak Friday. This will transition easterly steering 

flow to more WSW into Friday. 



Low temperatures tonight will trend near average in the upper 60s

to low 70s inland to mid 70s coast.  



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Friday through Saturday night)

Issued at 127 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Surface high pressure will be centered east southeast of the region 

Friday, then move further to the southeast Saturday. The prevailing 

low level flow will be from the southwest on Friday, with the Gulf 

sea breeze meeting the east coast sea breeze between the highway 301

and I95 corridors in the afternoon. The low level flow will have 

more of a component from the west Saturday, which will make the Gulf

sea breeze more dominant, with it meeting the east coast sea breeze 

closer to the I95 corridor. The combination of diurnal heating and 

these sea breeze interactions will lead convective development each 

day, mainly in the afternoon into the evening hours. An upper low 

will be overhead of the region this period, and will provide 

additional instability. The potential for strong to severe storms 

will exist each day, with a little better chance on Friday. The flow

is fairly light, so potential for slow moving storms could lead to

localized flooding, especially in more urbanized areas. 

Precipitation will diminish during the overnights. 



Temperatures will be near to a little above seasonal averages.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Sunday through next Thursday)

Issued at 127 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Surface high pressure will largely be centered to the east this 

period. The upper pattern will trend toward a troughing pattern over

the southeastern US. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances this 

period, due to a combination of diurnal heating, sea breeze 

interactions, and upper support. The best chance for this activity 

will be during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will be

near seasonal averages through the period.   



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 127 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Shower and thunderstorms will progress inland from coastal

terminals with the east coast sea breeze over the night 1-2 hrs,

with dry but breezy easterly winds at SSI, CRG and SGJ through the

afternoon and early evening. TEMPO for TS was added to VQQ based

on radar trends and may need to include for JAX, and continued

with TEMPO for TS at GNV but chances have trended down from 60% to

40-50% and will monitor radar trends to see if VCTS would suffice.

Convection shifts west of the GNV by 03z with dry conditions

tonight as easterly winds weaken andbecome near calm inland with

weak SSW winds at coastal terminals due to a land breeze through

12z. Confidence not high enough to include shallow ground fog at

VQQ or GNV at this time given the amount of high clouds expected

across NE FL tomorrow morning, but the NBH is suggesting 15-20%

MVFR probabilities after 07z. After daybreak, brief MVFR ceilings

are possible between 14-16z as diurnal heating creates low 

cumulus field. TS potential begins at GNV first under prevailing 

SW flow with VCTS at this time around 17z for tomorrow. 



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 127 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



High pressure will extend across north Florida today then shift 

south of the local waters into the weekend. Daily showers and 

storms are expected, with more coverage of storms expected over 

the local Atlantic waters each afternoon and early evening this 

weekend into early next week. 



Rip Currents: Moderate risk through Friday with afternoon ESE

winds and a weak easterly swell. By the weekend, offshore flow

prevails with a low risk expected. 



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  70  92  71  91 /  20  60  40  70 

SSI  76  89  75  91 /  10  40  30  60 

JAX  72  93  72  93 /  10  60  30  70 

SGJ  74  91  74  92 /  10  50  30  70 

GNV  69  93  71  93 /  20  70  30  80 

OCF  72  92  73  92 /  30  70  30  80 



&&



.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.

GA...None.

AM...None.

&&



$$

