FXUS62 KKEY 261410

AFDKEY



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Key West FL

1010 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1015 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Satellite loop analysis places an upper-level low just off the

Florida Space Coast at this late morning hour. The 12z morning

sounding at KEY sampled low-level weak southerly steering flow,

relatively steep low-level lapse rates, along with zero

inhibition. Despite the weak steering, plenty of mesoscale-driven

boundary collisions, combined with the lack of inhibition and the

upper-level divergence, have produced scattered showers and

thunderstorms, mainly along and north of the Middle and Upper Keys

and in the southeastern Gulf. Outside of any rain-cooled 

communities, temperatures are currently in the lower to mid 80s.



For the balance of today, very active weather should continue for

the next several hours, initially in the vicinity of the Middle

and Upper Keys. The lack of convection across the Lower Keys this

morning, combined with the nebulous flow, should support the

activation of an island cloud line by early afternoon. This cloud

line, should it indeed form, would have ample opportunity to get 

quite active as it interacts with residual boundaries, leading to

decent storms for the Lower Keys.



Given this synopsis, elected to raise rain and thunder chances

earlier this morning for the first period. No other changes

proposed at this time.



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 1015 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue

through at least the early afternoon hours across the Florida

Keys, before a lull is likely. Despite light to gentle 

southeasterly flow outside of storms, winds will be locally gusty 

and seas confused in any stronger thunderstorm.



From synopsis, an upper level low east of the Florida Peninsula 

will lift northward and weaken by Friday. Until it does, enhanced 

rain and thunder chances are expected across the Keys marine 

zones. Broad surface ridging will rebuild over the Atlantic and 

support gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes across 

Florida Keys waters. A Saharan Air Layer will limit shower 

coverage over the weekend, but bursts of showers or thunderstorms 

cannot be ruled out.



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 1015 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely continue to

flourish through at least 18z at both terminals. Bouts of MVFR

CIGs, along with IFR visibilities and gusty winds, will be 

possible with any stronger TS. Conditions should gradually improve

for the later TAF period, although confidence is a bit low at this

time. Outside of any storm, near-surface winds will remain

generally out of the southeast at 5 to 8 knots.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Key West  90  82  92  83 /  60  40  30  20 

Marathon  88  82  89  83 /  60  40  30  20 



&&



.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.

GM...None.

&&



$$



Public/Marine/Fire...BT

Aviation/Nowcasts....BT

Data Acquisition.....BT



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