FXUS62 KMFL 261615

AFDMFL



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Miami FL

1215 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New SHORT TERM, MARINE...



.SHORT TERM...

(Rest of today through Friday)

Issued at 1210 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



A mid to upper level low will continue to meander over the Florida 

Peninsula throughout the day. At the surface, an area of high 

pressure will remain centered off in the western Atlantic today 

into Friday. This will allow for a light southeasterly background 

wind flow to continue which is aiding in deep tropical moisture 

advection taking place today and into tomorrow. With the mid-level

low, this will help to keep colder air in place aloft (12Z 

sounding 500mb temps - 9.6 degrees C). In combination with modest 

mid level lapse rates (6.1C/km), as well as sufficient instability

(CAPE values of 1500- 2500 J/kg), these conditions could allow 

for a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms to develop, 

especially this afternoon. The SPC convective outlook has all of 

South Florida under a marginal risk (1 of 5) for strong to severe 

thunderstorms across the region today, with a 5% probability for 

strong, damaging winds. 



Other than our local waters, there was a slow-start to activity this 

morning, but scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will 

continue to develop over the eastern metro early this afternoon. 

Moving further into the afternoon and early evening with assistance 

from sea breezes, these showers and storms will gradually push 

towards the interior and west heading towards before gradually 

diminishing this evening. Mid-afternoon thunderstorms tend to be the 

strongest thunderstorms during peak diurnal heating where where 

mesoscale boundary interactions occur across the interior sections. 

Slow moving thunderstorms or multiple rounds of strong thunderstorms 

developing over the same areas could lead to the potential for 

localized flooding as plenty of deep tropical moisture will allow 

for enhanced rainfall rates with the stronger activity. High 

temperatures will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s. 



While the mid-level low will drift a bit further away from the 

region on Friday, it will still remain close enough to keep cooler

air aloft in place as 500mb temperatures will range between -8 

and - 9C through a good portion of the day. One significant factor

that will need to be watched is a plume of Saharan Dust currently

off to the southeast in the Bahamas extending into the Carribean 

Sea. This plume is anticipated to arrive over the region on 

Friday. While Saharan dust usually acts as a limiting factor for 

convection, with additional moisture already in place, this 

feature may not impact the coverage of convection on Friday. This 

Saharan dust, however, may allow for more of the thunderstorms to 

become strong to marginally severe by introducing just enough 

drier air in the mid levels to support strong gusty winds as DCAPE

values could be elevated. With very light steering flow in place,

the potential for slow moving storms and high rainfall rates 

could lead to localized flooding especially across the poor 

drainage areas once again. High temperatures on Friday will 

generally range from the upper 80s to lower 90s across most areas.





&&



.LONG TERM...

(Friday night through Wednesday)

Issued at 104 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



The weather pattern across South Florida looks to remain unsettled 

heading into the upcoming weekend and even into early next week. The 

mid level level low will remain nearly stationary over the Southeast 

heading into the upcoming weekend. At the surface, high pressure 

will remain centered off in the western Atlantic and South Florida 

will remain on the western periphery of this feature. With the 

synoptic wind flow remaining light out of the southeast, this will 

allow for the surface winds to be mainly sea breeze driven during 

this time. At the same time, the plume of Saharan Dust will remain 

intact throughout most of the upcoming weekend across the region. 

With the mid level low remaining parked over the Southeast, it will 

be close enough to provide an extra source of lift as it will keep 

cooler temperatures aloft in place. While convection development 

will continue to be diurnally driven by the sea breezes, coverage 

will likely continue to remain rather high as storms develop over 

the Atlantic waters and east coast during the morning and early 

afternoon hours before shifting towards the interior for the rest of 

the afternoon and evening hours. Strong to marginally severe 

thunderstorms will also be possible during the first half of the 

weekend containing heavy downpours and gusty winds. 



Heading towards the second half of the weekend and into early 

next week, the latest guidance suite continues to remain in 

relatively good agreement with pushing another mid level low 

westward from the Bahamas over the Florida Peninsula during this 

time frame. This will act as a reinforcing source of moisture and 

will keep enhanced shower and thunderstorm chances in place during 

this time frame with the added lift and instability continuing as 

well. While the diurnal summertime convective pattern will generally 

remain intact, there will be higher chances and higher coverage of 

showers and thunderstorms each day during this time frame. Strong to 

marginally severe thunderstorms will continue to remain possible 

especially during the afternoon and evening hours with the highest 

chances remaining over the interior where sea breeze and 

thunderstorm outflow boundaries collide. A rather light steering 

flow will remain in place as well which will keep the potential for 

slow moving storms in place. Slow moving storms with heavy downpours 

will continue to keep the potential for localized flooding in place 

especially in the poor drainage areas as well as areas that will be 

saturated from previous heavy downpours. 



High temperatures over the weekend and into early next week will 

remain near climatological normals for this time of year as they 

will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s. 



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 646 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



SCT showers and thunderstorms this morning becoming more numerous

late morning into the afternoon which may result in brief flight

restrictions and erratic winds. Light SE winds this morning

becoming 10-15 kts this afternoon, with a westerly Gulf breeze

expected at APF this afternoon. MVFR ceilings expected to prevail

with some occasional IFR possible during heavy showers or

thunderstorms.



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 1210 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



A gentle to moderate southeasterly wind flow will remain in place 

across the local waters through the rest of the week and into the 

upcoming weekend. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will 

remain at 2 feet or less during this time frame. Scattered to 

numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day. 

Locally higher winds and seas could create potentially hazardous 

conditions in and around showers and storms.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Miami            79  90  80  90 /  30  50  20  40 

West Kendall     75  91  75  91 /  30  40  20  30 

Opa-Locka        79  92  80  92 /  30  50  20  40 

Homestead        79  90  79  90 /  30  40  20  30 

Fort Lauderdale  79  90  79  89 /  30  50  20  40 

N Ft Lauderdale  79  90  79  90 /  30  50  20  40 

Pembroke Pines   81  94  81  93 /  30  50  20  40 

West Palm Beach  77  90  78  91 /  30  60  30  50 

Boca Raton       77  92  78  92 /  30  50  20  50 

Naples           74  90  75  91 /  60  50  30  60 



&&



.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.

AM...None.

GM...None.

&&$$



SHORT TERM...JS/CWC

LONG TERM....CWC

AVIATION...Rizzuto

