FXUS62 KMHX 261936

AFDMHX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC

336 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will remain in control through the next several

days. Dangerous heat will continue today along with the chance 

for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Typical 

summertime pattern returns late week and this weekend. The next 

frontal system approaches the east coast mid next week.



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

As of 335 PM Thu...



Key Messages



 - Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible this

   afternoon and early evening



High pressure remains west over Tennessee with weak surface 

troughing over western portions of North Carolina, but the ridge is 

beginning to break down over eastern NC. Heat index values have been 

between 100 and 105 degrees as temperatures remain in the lower 90s 

and dewpoints in the upper 70s. Head Advisory remains in effect 

until 8 PM with no extension needed. Widely scattered showers and 

thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, mainly 

through 8 PM. While sufficient instability is in place with SB CAPE 

values of 2000+ J/kg, very weak shear and little forcing and upper 

level support will cause most areas to stay dry. Locations along 

Highway 17 where the sea breeze develops have the best chances for 

seeing scattered showers and storms. Given some dry air aloft, gusty 

winds are possible in the heavier downpours, but any severe weather 

will be isolated. Overnight lows will remain mild with temperatures 

only dropping into the mid to upper 70s across the area. Fog and low 

stratus is not expected but can't be ruled out near sunrise.



&&



.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

As of 335 PM Thu...



Surface high pressure centered off the coast will continue to weaken 

on Friday. While instability will be in place, shear and moisture 

will remain fairly limited yielding only isolated to scattered 

thunderstorms by Friday afternoon. Sea breeze will be the most 

likely catalyst for thunderstorm development beginning along the 

coast and pushing inland later in the afternoon/evening. An upper 

level ridge will also continue to weaken, causing high temperatures 

to taper off to the mid to low 90s, with heat indices likely between 

100-105F. As a result, holding off on a heat advisory for Friday

afternoon. 



&&



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

As of 3 AM Thursday...



Key Messages



 - Hot conditions continue through the long term, with heat 

   indices 100-105F every afternoon (90-100F along the coast)



Low level heights retreat slightly the rest of the week as the

upper level ridge weakens, and highs drop to the low to mid 

90s, with heat indices 100-105F likely. The cumulative effect of

several days with high heat indices (and little relief at 

night) is something for those working or spending much time 

outside to consider this week as they make preparations for the 

heat.



As ridge continues to weaken, trough over central NC and sea

breeze will be two areas to watch for thunderstorm development

each day. Lack of shear paired with ample instability favors

pulse thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. Lack of upper level

support keeps PoPs in the slight chance range through Tuesday, 

as coverage of storms will be isolated to scattered. Next week, 

a frontal system will approach the eastern seaboard, with the

best upper level forcing well to our north. While it is still 

uncertain if the frontal system will stall to our west or blow 

through the region, PoPs do trend upwards mid- week.



&&



.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SHORT TERM /through tonight/... 

As of 215 PM Thu...



Key Messages



 - TSRA and sub-VFR conditions possible this afternoon.

 

Mostly VFR conditions are expected this afternoon but unstable

conditions prevail yielding some showers and thunderstorms this

afternoon. These are expected to be isolated to widely scattered

in nature but they could bring a few gusty winds if near the

terminals. Otherwise expect southwesterly winds at 5-10 kts in

most locations. Overnight guidance is not particularly bullish

on fog or low stratus so have kept it out of the TAF at this

time although some early morning ground fog cannot be ruled out

with dewpoints remaining very elevated overnight.



LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... 

As of 3 AM Thursday...High pressure overhead helps keep winds 

light to calm, and when paired with moist low levels, sub-VFR 

level patchy fog will be possible each morning.



&&



.MARINE...

SHORT TERM /through tonight/... 

As of 210 PM Thu...Pleasant boating conditions will continue 

through tonight with high pressure in control. Latest obs show 

light and variable winds, generally 10 kt or less with seas 1-2 

ft. Winds will become S-SW 10-15 kt this afternoon with seas 

building to 2-3 ft tonight. 



LONG TERM /Friday though Monday/... 

As of 3 AM Thursday...Fantastic boating conditions are expected

through the weekend as a ridge of high pressure lingers over 

the region. The pressure gradient will remain quite weak, which 

will allow sea/sound breezes to play a big part in wind strength

and direction. Light and variable winds below 10 kts are 

expected each morning, with winds increasing each afternoon and 

evening to S/SW 10-20 kts in response to a developing sea 

breeze for inland sounds/rivers and slightly pinched gradient

for coastal waters. Seas will be mostly 2-3 ft through the 

weekend, with 4 footers along the Gulf Stream Sunday and Monday.



&&



.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047-

     079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...MHX

NEAR TERM...RTE/JMW

SHORT TERM...RTE/ZAS

LONG TERM...RJ

AVIATION...RTE/CQD/RJ

MARINE...CQD/RJ

