FXUS62 KMHX 262341

AFDMHX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC

741 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will remain in control through the next several

days. Dangerous heat will continue today along with the chance 

for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Typical 

summertime pattern returns late week and this weekend. The next 

frontal system approaches the east coast mid next week.



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

As of 720 PM Thu...



Key Messages



 - Quiet but muggy evening expected



Last remains of convection have died off in the last hour and

expect the rest of the night to be dry and muggy. Cannot

completely rule out some spotty shallow fog in the early morning

hours, but widespread fog and stratus not expected. Overnight 

lows will remain mild with temperatures only dropping into the 

mid to upper 70s across the area.



&&



.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

As of 335 PM Thu...



Surface high pressure centered off the coast will continue to weaken 

on Friday. While instability will be in place, shear and moisture 

will remain fairly limited yielding only isolated to scattered 

thunderstorms by Friday afternoon. Sea breeze will be the most 

likely catalyst for thunderstorm development beginning along the 

coast and pushing inland later in the afternoon/evening. An upper 

level ridge will also continue to weaken, causing high temperatures 

to taper off to the mid to low 90s, with heat indices likely between 

100-105F. As a result, holding off on a heat advisory for Friday

afternoon.



&&



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

As of 3 AM Thursday...



Key Messages



 - Hot conditions continue through the long term, with heat 

   indices 100-105F every afternoon (90-100F along the coast)



Low level heights retreat slightly the rest of the week as the

upper level ridge weakens, and highs drop to the low to mid 

90s, with heat indices 100-105F likely. The cumulative effect of

several days with high heat indices (and little relief at 

night) is something for those working or spending much time 

outside to consider this week as they make preparations for the 

heat.



As ridge continues to weaken, trough over central NC and sea

breeze will be two areas to watch for thunderstorm development

each day. Lack of shear paired with ample instability favors

pulse thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. Lack of upper level

support keeps PoPs in the slight chance range through Tuesday, 

as coverage of storms will be isolated to scattered. Next week, 

a frontal system will approach the eastern seaboard, with the

best upper level forcing well to our north. While it is still 

uncertain if the frontal system will stall to our west or blow 

through the region, PoPs do trend upwards mid- week.



&&



.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SHORT TERM /through tonight/... 

As of 740 PM Thu...



Key Messages



 - VFR conditions expected overnight and into Friday. Spotty

   TSRA possible tomorrow afternoon.

 

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals this hour and will

continue through the overnight hours, although some shallow

low-impact fog is possible just before sunrise. VFR conditions

and light southwest flow to start Friday with sea breeze

advancing inland after 18z turning winds more southerly. A few

iso tstorms possible along this boundary in the afternoon, with

a low chance (less than 10%) of storms producing strong winds in

excess of 40 kt.



LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... 

As of 3 AM Thursday...High pressure overhead helps keep winds 

light to calm, and when paired with moist low levels, sub-VFR 

level patchy fog will be possible each morning.



&&



.MARINE...

SHORT TERM /through tonight/... 

As of 210 PM Thu...Pleasant boating conditions will continuethrough tonight with high pressure in control. Latest obs show 

light and variable winds, generally 10 kt or less with seas 1-2 

ft. Winds will become S-SW 10-15 kt this afternoon with seas 

building to 2-3 ft tonight. 



LONG TERM /Friday though Monday/... 

As of 3 AM Thursday...Fantastic boating conditions are expected

through the weekend as a ridge of high pressure lingers over 

the region. The pressure gradient will remain quite weak, which 

will allow sea/sound breezes to play a big part in wind strength

and direction. Light and variable winds below 10 kts are 

expected each morning, with winds increasing each afternoon and 

evening to S/SW 10-20 kts in response to a developing sea 

breeze for inland sounds/rivers and slightly pinched gradient

for coastal waters. Seas will be mostly 2-3 ft through the 

weekend, with 4 footers along the Gulf Stream Sunday and Monday.



&&



.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047-

     079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...MHX

NEAR TERM...RTE/MS

SHORT TERM...RTE

LONG TERM...RJ

AVIATION...CQD/MS/RJ

MARINE...CQD/RJ

