FXUS62 KMLB 261727

AFDMLB



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Melbourne FL

127 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Issued at 228 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



- Shower and storm chances increase today into the weekend, with a

  Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather through Friday.



- Heat continues to be a concern over the next few days, as peak

  heat indices reach 100 to 105. Proper precautions should be

  taken to prevent heat-related illnesses. Look before you lock!



- Moderate risk of rip currents continues at area beaches through

  the weekend.



&&



.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

Issued at 228 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Today-Tonight...Ridging continues at the surface today as a mid and 

upper level low better aligns over the Florida peninsula. Higher 

moisture begins to move into the local area today, with PWATs 

increasing to 1.7-1.8" by the afternoon. The upper level low is 

forecast to provide additional support today, with 500mb 

temperatures around -9 to -10C. There is a Marginal Risk (1/5) 

for severe weather today, mainly for gusty winds to around 60 mph 

due to steep sfc-3km lapse rates around 7.5-8.5 C/km. However, 

lightning strikes, hail, and locally heavy rainfall will also be 

threats. Have trended PoPs towards global models as the NBM is 

likely overdoing PoPs. In contrast, CAMs do not seem to like 

shower and storm chances today (possibly due to modest CAPE for 

Florida or an early start to the sea breeze), though they haven't 

been initializing well with ongoing convection over the Atlantic 

waters prior to sunrise this morning. For now, have included 

scattered showers and storms along the coast south of Cape 

Canaveral this morning, becoming scattered to numerous and 

spreading inland along the sea breeze this afternoon. Overall, 

PoPs generally 40-60% today.



The east coast sea breeze will remain the dominant breeze today, 

with winds remaining around 15 mph or less. This will quickly clear 

any convection into the western half of the peninsula by the evening 

hours. Then, additional showers and storms will remain possible over 

the Atlantic waters overnight. However, increasingly southerly flow 

should keep most activity offshore. Hot temperatures continue today, 

with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Increasingly humid 

conditions will lead to heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s. 

Overnight lows in the 70s.



Friday-The Weekend...The Atlantic ridge axis elongates into this 

weekend, settling in over the local area, as the upper level low 

drifts northward. Southerly flow will continue to advect deeper 

moisture into east central Florida, with PWATs further increasing to 

1.7-near 2" this weekend. The east coast sea breeze will become 

gradually less dominant, with the daily afternoon collision 

occurring over the central or even eastern half of the peninsula. 

Thus, high coverage of showers and storms is forecast each afternoon 

into the evening hours, with PoPs 60-70%. A few strong to marginally 

severe storms will remain possible, particularly on Friday, as some 

drier air aloft leads to DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg and sfc-3km 

lapse rates remain steep. Convection is forecast to linger into the 

evening hours, before diminishing overnight. However, showers and 

storms will continue to remain possible over the Atlantic waters 

each night.



Hot afternoon temperatures continue, with highs in the lower 90 and 

peak heat indices 100-105. Muggy overnight temperatures in the 70s 

are forecast. 



Monday-Independence Day...Mid to upper level low pressure moves 

into the area once again next week, as the Atlantic ridge axis 

moves northeastward. Thus, deep moisture looks to linger into 

Independence Day. Combined with an increasing southwesterly flow

and support aloft, this would lead to high shower and storm

coverage and afternoon sea breeze collisions over the eastern 

half of the peninsula through the week, should this forecast hold.

For now, have kept PoPs 50-70% through the extended for now due 

to uncertainty at this time scale. Temperatures remaining near to

slightly above normal in the lower 90s. However, increasing

humidity will see heat indices creep up each day, reaching 100-105

degrees. 



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 228 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Generally favorable boating conditions prevail, despite showers

and storms developing over the Atlantic waters each night into the

morning hours. There will be an increasing threat for offshore

moving showers and storms this weekend into next week during the

mid afternoon to evening hours, as the Atlantic ridge axis shifts

and the east coast sea breeze becomes less dominant. A few storms

could be strong to marginally severe as they approach the coast, 

especially Friday. Storm hazards include lightning, gusty winds, 

hail, and heavy downpours.



East to southeast winds today will become south to southwest

Friday into next week, remaining less than 15 kts. Seas 1-3ft.



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFs)

Issued at 120 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Increasing moisture and disturbance aloft combined with ECSB 

moving well inland during the afternoon/evening; with SCT-NMRS 

convection forecast though CAMs remain unimpressive with PoP 

chances. Ongoing convection across the Space/Treasure coasts with

activity beginning to pop up over the interior. Continue VCTS 

with TEMPO groups as necessary for coastal TAF sites. Have VCTS at

interior TAF sites with TEMPO groups well inland 18Z-22Z period. 

It appears most convection expected to diminish or push west of 

the inland sites by around 23Z. There could be some periodic 

onshore-moving SHRA until after 06Z for coastal TAF sites, and 

afterwards the storm steering flow becomes SSW/SW.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

DAB  73  90  74  91 /  20  60  40  70 

MCO  74  93  75  93 /  20  70  40  70 

MLB  74  90  75  91 /  30  70  40  70 

VRB  72  91  72  91 /  40  60  40  70 

LEE  74  91  75  91 /  20  70  30  70 

SFB  74  93  75  93 /  20  70  40  70 

ORL  74  93  77  93 /  20  70  40  70 

FPR  70  90  71  91 /  40  60  40  70 



&&



.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.

AM...None.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Leahy

AVIATION...Sedlock

