FXUS62 KRAH 261348

AFDRAH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Raleigh NC

945 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

A strong ridge of high pressure will extend over the Mid Atlantic 

through the rest of the week, then slowly shift offshore toward 

Bermuda over the weekend. 



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

As of 945 AM Thursday...   



* A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM today. 



* There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms 

  and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall across 

  central NC this afternoon and evening.



Clear and sunny skies to start the day will for unimpeded daytime 

heating. Combined with lower/mid 70s BL dewpoints, this will support 

strong and robust destabilization across the region.



Initial convective development will likely be tied to to terrain 

induced differential heating and weak convergence along a lee-side 

sfc trough across western NC. As storms evolve, cold-pool driven 

outflow boundaries will become the primary mechanism for additional 

storm development and organization. 



While shear remains weak, the presence of high D-CAPE values (1200-

1700 J/KG) will foster a favorable environment for locally damaging 

wind gusts with the strongest storms. 



In addition to the severe storm threat, dangerous heat will persist 

with afternoon heat indices climbing into the lower to mid 100s, 

posing heat related risks, especially for those spending extended 

time outdoors.  

  



Previous discussion:



Lingering showers will continue to abate over the next hour or two. 

Aloft, high pressure will continue ridging across the mid-Atlantic, 

while a weak area of low pressure slowly drifts nwd across FL 

through tonight. Weak perturbations around the low in the mid-level 

flow this aft/eve could help kick off showers and storms, especially 

along residual surface boundaries, with greatest coverage over the 

wrn Piedmont. There should be plenty of instability, with SBCAPE 

around 2500-3000 J/Kg, but relatively weak shear (less than 20 kts). 

PWATs of 1.7 to 1.9 inches are also expected. An isolated strong 

wind gusts and localized heavy rainfall will be the primary threats 

with the storms. Convection should taper off with loss of heating. 

As for temperatures, earlier convection has helped knock 

temperatures down, with generally low to mid 70s across the area. 

Max low-level thicknesses this evening should be slightly lower than 

previous days, but still 1435-1440 meters. That and the slightly 

lower starting point should result in highs near-slightly lower than 

Wed, mainly in the mid 90s. However, dewpoints also in the low to 

mid 70s will again result in heat index values of 100 to 106. Will 

continue with the Heat Advisory, though the best chance for heat 

indices of 105 or greater will be from the Triangle area east. Lows 

tonight should be in the low to mid 70s, lowest west where better 

coverage of convection is expected.



&&



.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... 

As of 320 AM Thursday...



* Chance of storms once again, mainly across the N and W, with temps 

  remaining just above normal.



The mid-upper low near the FL/GA border early Fri will continue a 

NNW drift over GA through Fri night, while at the surface, weak lee 

troughing holds over the Piedmont. We'll continue to see weak 

vorticity tracking through the NE side of the low over SC into W NC, 

along with shots of upper divergence maxima within the southeasterly 

upper jet exit region, within an area of near 2" PW. There may be 

some areas of convective debris mid cloudiness and patchy low clouds 

to start the day, but overall expect a period of decent heating to 

facilitate convective initiation, under the influence of weak 

dynamically-induced lift, particularly in areas of differential 

heating. The mid level SSE flow between the GA low and anticyclone 

centered off the Carolina coast will remain weak, as will the winds 

throughout the column, resulting in poor bulk shear. But despite 

this, with what is expected to be a period of moderate SBCAPE Fri 

afternoon and decent low and mid level lapse rates across the W 

Carolinas, we should see scattered (numerous in our NW) storms 

develop in the afternoon, primarily slow-moving or meandering storm 

clusters with the potential for strong wind gusts. Convection should 

diminish gradually overnight with nocturnal low level stabilization. 

Expect highs of 88-95, followed by lows in the low-mid 70s under 

partly cloudy skies. -GIH



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

As of 205 AM Thursday... 



* Little change in the stagnant/weak-flow regime and above normal 

  temps through Mon, yielding daily late-day storm chances, highest 

  across the NW.



* Convection chances increase by Tue, lasting into Wed when temps 

  will trend down closer to normal.



During this period, as weak surface troughing holds over the NC 

Piedmont, the baggy mid-upper low over the Southeast states and 

Carolinas will move little through the weekend, meandering over the 

S Appalachians before weakening further to a broad weak trough by 

Mon. While we'll no doubt see small day-over-day changes in the 

sensible weather, given the weak pressure patterns through a deep 

layer, poor mid level flow, and the lack of any significant weather 

systems over much of this period, will follow persistence for the 

forecast, with temps generally staying above normal in the low-mid 

90s, as low level thicknesses stay about 5-10 m above normal each 

day. Expect late-day scattered storms focused over our N and W areas 

as terrain convection drifts into the area. With at least moderate 

CAPE daily Sat-Mon but very weak bulk shear, we should see pulse-

type storm clusters with a low threat for organized severe storms. 

With humidity still elevated, both forecast heat indices and the 

experimental Heat Risk suggest a continued low-end heat-health risk, 

mainly for those without adequate cooling and those exerting 

themselves outdoors, but overall the most intense heat will have 

subsided. By Tue into Wed, a broad northern stream trough will shift 

through ON/QC and Great Lakes into the Northeast, leading to an 

increase in mid level flow over the Mid Atlantic region as a surface 

cold front gradually approaches from the NW with a preceding 

sharpening of the Piedmont trough. This improving flow aloft along 

with a prefrontal increase in PW will prompt greater and earlier 

storm coverage Tue/Wed, with more cloudiness. Expect highs to trend 

closer to normal, 90-95 Tue and around 90 Wed. -GIH



&&



.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

As of 605 AM Thursday...



24 hour TAF period: Any lingering MVFR vsbys this morning should 

return to VFR early. Outside of convection, largely expect VFR 

conditions to prevail today. Showers/storms, and the usual 

accompanying restrictions, are possible again in the west this 

aft/eve, with an isolated shower or two east.



Outlook: There will be the chance for diurnally driven convection 

and early morning fog/low stratus through the end of the week and 

weekend. Otherwise, VFR conditions should generally prevail.



&&



.CLIMATE...

Record Daily High Minimum Temperatures...



             Raleigh        Greensboro      Fayetteville

 

June 26      77 (2024)      74 (2010)       76 (1997)

June 27      76 (1952)      76 (1969)       77 (1998)

June 28      76 (1952)      76 (1969)       78 (1914)

June 29      78 (1914)      74 (2024)       76 (1969)

June 30      80 (1936)      77 (2024)       79 (1936)



Record Daily Maximum Temperatures...



             Raleigh        Greensboro      Fayetteville



June 26      103 (2024)      102 (1914)     101 (1951)

June 27      104 (1954)      102 (1954)     102 (1998)

June 28      100 (1959)       99 (1959)     105 (1954)

June 29      105 (2012)      102 (2012)     106 (2012)

June 30      105 (2012)      101 (1959)     102 (2012)



&&



.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for 

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...Hartfield 

NEAR TERM...CBL/KC

SHORT TERM...Hartfield

LONG TERM...Hartfield

AVIATION...KC

CLIMATE...RAH

