FXUS62 KRAH 261828

AFDRAH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Raleigh NC

228 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

A strong ridge of high pressure will extend over the Mid Atlantic 

through the rest of the week, then slowly shift offshore toward 

Bermuda over the weekend. 



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

As of 230 PM Thursday...   



* A Heat Advisory is in effect through 8 PM today. 



* There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms 

  and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall across 

  central NC this afternoon and evening.



Clear and sunny skies to start the day will foster unimpeded daytime 

heating with highs today in the lower to mid 90s. Combined with 

lower/mid 70s BL dewpoints, this will support strong and robust 

destabilization across the region.



Thus far, convective development has been tied to terrain induced 

differential heating and weak convergence along a lee-side sfc 

trough across western NC. As storms evolve, cold-pool driven outflow 

boundaries will become the primary mechanism for additional storm 

development and organization, with main activity remaining across 

the western Piedmont, per recent trends in the hi-res CAMs. 



While shear remains weak, the presence of high D-CAPE values (1200-

1700 J/KG) will foster a favorable environment for locally damaging 

wind gusts with the strongest storms. 



In addition to the severe storm threat, dangerous heat will persist 

with afternoon heat indices climbing into the lower to mid 100s, 

posing heat related risks, especially for those spending extended 

time outdoors.    



Convection will die out after loss of heating. Lows tonight should 

be in the low to mid 70s, lowest west where better coverage of 

convection is expected.



&&



.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...

As of 230 PM Thursday... 



* Continued Hot with Heat Index Values in the upper 90s to lower 

  100s.



* Chance of isolated severe storms, primarily in the western and 

  south central Piedmont.



The ridge that has persisted for several days over the Carolinas 

will shift ever so slightly eastward as a weakening mid-level 

circulation center off the Florida and Southeast US coast moves 

onshore.  This will cause temperatures to drop slightly, from lower 

to mid 90s with heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s, falling 

shy of advisory criteria. 



Focused terrain induced differential heating and weak convergence 

along a lee-side sfc trough across western NC, a moist and very 

unstable airmass will support the development of isolated(eastern 

NC) to scattered showers and storms(western NC) Friday afternoon and 

evening. Weak shear will keep the threat of organized severe storms 

low. As a result of this, there will be a chance of isolated strong 

to severe pulse type thunderstorms throughout the Piedmont but 

especially towards the western and southern areas. Due to weak 

steering from mid-upper level winds, these storms will be slow 

moving and meandering. Any significant movement will be a result of 

outflow boundary re-triggering. The continued presence of high D-

CAPE values (1200-1700 J/KG) will foster a favorable environment for 

locally damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms.  



Convection will diminish throughout the Piedmont overnight with the 

western Piedmont being the last to cease. Overnight lows in the 

lower 70s and dew points persisting in the low 70s. 



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

As of 205 AM Thursday... 



* Little change in the stagnant/weak-flow regime and above normal 

  temps through Mon, yielding daily late-day storm chances, highest 

  across the NW.



* Convection chances increase by Tue, lasting into Wed when temps 

  will trend down closer to normal.



During this period, as weak surface troughing holdsover the NC 

Piedmont, the baggy mid-upper low over the Southeast states and 

Carolinas will move little through the weekend, meandering over the 

S Appalachians before weakening further to a broad weak trough by 

Mon. While we'll no doubt see small day-over-day changes in the 

sensible weather, given the weak pressure patterns through a deep 

layer, poor mid level flow, and the lack of any significant weather 

systems over much of this period, will follow persistence for the 

forecast, with temps generally staying above normal in the low-mid 

90s, as low level thicknesses stay about 5-10 m above normal each 

day. Expect late-day scattered storms focused over our N and W areas 

as terrain convection drifts into the area. With at least moderate 

CAPE daily Sat-Mon but very weak bulk shear, we should see pulse-

type storm clusters with a low threat for organized severe storms. 

With humidity still elevated, both forecast heat indices and the 

experimental Heat Risk suggest a continued low-end heat-health risk, 

mainly for those without adequate cooling and those exerting 

themselves outdoors, but overall the most intense heat will have 

subsided. By Tue into Wed, a broad northern stream trough will shift 

through ON/QC and Great Lakes into the Northeast, leading to an 

increase in mid level flow over the Mid Atlantic region as a surface 

cold front gradually approaches from the NW with a preceding 

sharpening of the Piedmont trough. This improving flow aloft along 

with a prefrontal increase in PW will prompt greater and earlier 

storm coverage Tue/Wed, with more cloudiness. Expect highs to trend 

closer to normal, 90-95 Tue and around 90 Wed. -GIH



&&



.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

As of 130 PM Thursday...



24 hour TAF period: Highest coverage of storms and associated sub-

VFR restrictions are expected across the western terminals (KINT and 

KGSO) this afternoon and evening before dissipating from loss of 

heating. Cannot rule out patchy ground fog at fog-prone locations 

like KRWI. Otherwise, expect predominately VFR conditions through 

the TAF period ending at 18z Friday.



Outlook: The best chance of storms on Friday will once again be 

focused across the western terminals. Beyond that, a daily pattern 

of diurnally driven convection and patchy early morning fog is 

expected through early next week. 



&&



.CLIMATE...

Record Daily High Minimum Temperatures...



             Raleigh        Greensboro      Fayetteville

 

June 26      77 (2024)      74 (2010)       76 (1997)

June 27      76 (1952)      76 (1969)       77 (1998)

June 28      76 (1952)      76 (1969)       78 (1914)

June 29      78 (1914)      74 (2024)       76 (1969)

June 30      80 (1936)      77 (2024)       79 (1936)



Record Daily Maximum Temperatures...



             Raleigh        Greensboro      Fayetteville



June 26      103 (2024)      102 (1914)     101 (1951)

June 27      104 (1954)      102 (1954)     102 (1998)

June 28      100 (1959)       99 (1959)     105 (1954)

June 29      105 (2012)      102 (2012)     106 (2012)

June 30      105 (2012)      101 (1959)     102 (2012)



&&



.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for 

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...Hartfield 

NEAR TERM...CBL

SHORT TERM...CBL/Skari

LONG TERM...Hartfield

AVIATION...CBL

CLIMATE...RAH

