FXUS62 KRAH 261842

AFDRAH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Raleigh NC

240 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

A strong ridge of high pressure will extend over the Mid Atlantic 

through the rest of the week, then slowly shift offshore toward 

Bermuda over the weekend. 



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

As of 230 PM Thursday...   



* A Heat Advisory is in effect through 8 PM today. 



* There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms 

  and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall across 

  central NC this afternoon and evening.



Clear and sunny skies to start the day will foster unimpeded daytime 

heating with highs today in the lower to mid 90s. Combined with 

lower/mid 70s BL dewpoints, this will support strong and robust 

destabilization across the region.



Thus far, convective development has been tied to terrain induced 

differential heating and weak convergence along a lee-side sfc 

trough across western NC. As storms evolve, cold-pool driven outflow 

boundaries will become the primary mechanism for additional storm 

development and organization, with main activity remaining across 

the western Piedmont, per recent trends in the hi-res CAMs. 



While shear remains weak, the presence of high D-CAPE values (1200-

1700 J/KG) will foster a favorable environment for locally damaging 

wind gusts with the strongest storms. 



In addition to the severe storm threat, dangerous heat will persist 

with afternoon heat indices climbing into the lower to mid 100s, 

posing heat related risks, especially for those spending extended 

time outdoors.    



Convection will die out after loss of heating. Lows tonight should 

be in the low to mid 70s, lowest west where better coverage of 

convection is expected.



&&



.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...

As of 230 PM Thursday... 



* Continued Hot with Heat Index Values in the upper 90s to lower 

  100s.



* Chance of isolated severe storms, primarily in the western and 

  south central Piedmont.



The ridge that has persisted for several days over the Carolinas 

will shift ever so slightly eastward as a weakening mid-level 

circulation center off the Florida and Southeast US coast moves 

onshore.  This will cause temperatures to drop slightly, from lower 

to mid 90s with heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s, falling 

shy of advisory criteria. 



Focused terrain induced differential heating and weak convergence 

along a lee-side sfc trough across western NC, a moist and very 

unstable airmass will support the development of isolated(eastern 

NC) to scattered showers and storms(western NC) Friday afternoon and 

evening. Weak shear will keep the threat of organized severe storms 

low. As a result of this, there will be a chance of isolated strong 

to severe pulse type thunderstorms throughout the Piedmont but 

especially towards the western and southern areas. Due to weak 

steering from mid-upper level winds, these storms will be slow 

moving and meandering. Any significant movement will be a result of 

outflow boundary re-triggering. The continued presence of high D-

CAPE values (1200-1700 J/KG) will foster a favorable environment for 

locally damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms.  



Convection will diminish throughout the Piedmont overnight with the 

western Piedmont being the last to cease. Overnight lows in the 

lower 70s and dew points persisting in the low 70s. 



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

As of 240 PM Thursday... 



* Hot and humid through the weekend with afternoon storm chances.



* Temperatures trend toward normal early next week with increasing 

  chances of storms Tuesday and Wednesday.



Weak upper level anti-cyclonic flow will persist over head on Sunday 

as the weak upper low to our southwest meanders over GA/SC. Forcing 

for convection will mainly be from diurnal influences and left-over 

outflow aided by moderate to strong CAPE given that the local 

airmass will not change much through the weekend.  Daily highs will 

be in the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s. 

This results in heat indices below heat advisory criteria but still 

elevated in the upper 90s and lower 100s.  Fairly climatological 

POPs both days in the 25-35 ranges, with slow moving storms capable 

damaging winds and locally heavy downpours with PW in the 1.5-2 inch 

range.



Monday onward the mid and upper level flow becomes a little more 

dominated by shortwaves crossing the northern US and the overall 

pattern trends to troughing over the eastern US.  A weak cold front 

is forecast to move into the OH Valley region by Tue/Wed, and while 

it is uncertain if or how quickly it moves into NC, there will be 

more Piedmont troughing in the afternoon and mid-level flow to move 

storms over the mountains by Tue/Wed, when POPs should likely be 

maximized areawide in the forecast period.  Highs will trend more 

toward normal as well.





&&



.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

As of 130 PM Thursday...



24 hour TAF period: Highest coverage of storms and associated sub-

VFR restrictions are expected across the western terminals (KINT and 

KGSO) this afternoon and evening before dissipating from loss of 

heating. Cannot rule out patchy ground fog at fog-prone locations 

like KRWI. Otherwise, expect predominately VFR conditions through 

the TAF period ending at 18z Friday.



Outlook: The best chance of storms on Friday will once again be 

focused across the western terminals. Beyond that, a daily pattern 

of diurnally driven convection and patchy early morning fog is 

expected through early next week. 



&&



.CLIMATE...

Record Daily High Minimum Temperatures...



             Raleigh        Greensboro      Fayetteville

 

June 26      77 (2024)      74 (2010)       76 (1997)

June 27      76 (1952)      76 (1969)       77 (1998)

June 28      76 (1952)      76 (1969)       78 (1914)

June 29      78 (1914)      74 (2024)       76 (1969)

June 30      80 (1936)      77 (2024)       79 (1936)



Record Daily Maximum Temperatures...



             Raleigh        Greensboro      Fayetteville



June 26      103 (2024)      102 (1914)     101 (1951)

June 27      104 (1954)      102 (1954)     102 (1998)

June 28      100 (1959)       99 (1959)     105 (1954)

June 29      105 (2012)      102 (2012)     106 (2012)

June 30      105 (2012)      101 (1959)     102 (2012)



&&



.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for 

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...Hartfield 

NEAR TERM...CBL

SHORT TERM...CBL/Skari

LONG TERM...BLS 

AVIATION...CBL 

CLIMATE...RAH

