FXUS63 KAPX 261729

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

129 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Lake Huron Beach hazards, locally heavy rain, and 

thunderstorms...oh my!



- Additional rainfall/storm chances, esp late weekend into early 

next week...



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 404 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Southwesterly flow persists from the Desert SW through the Upper 

Midwest into Ontario; 140+kt upper jet across Ontario/Quebec to our 

northeast in confluence zone between northern stream troughing...and 

ridge axis still trying to hold on over the OH Valley. Upper flow is 

rather easterly over the SE US with a broad upper low swirling into 

FL...though high pressure remains intact at the surface over much of 

the OH Valley/SE US...with return flow starting to pick up again 

through eastern TX. Anomalous pwats stretch from the southern Plains 

to the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes region. Weak surface boundary 

still holding on across southern WI toward the southern MI state 

line; LL easterly flow persists attm...but not enough to preclude 

rainfall across the CWA...as lingering stratiform rain from earlier 

upstream convection makes its way eastward across the Lake, largely 

along and north of a theta-e gradient stretching through central 

MI...and in the vicinity of a deformation axis across the Yoop where 

the LLJ turns easterly. 



Boundary will remain stretched across the area today, though some 

uncertainty in how far north it gets (could get as far north as M-

55/M-72?). Will expect some rainfall along/north of the boundary, 

with a better shot at surface-based convection across 

southern/central MI in the warm sector (this is where the boundary 

placement is important). In the meantime...breezy easterly flow 

across the northern half of northern Lower in particular will lead 

to hazardous beach conditions today with waves 4-6 feet for most of 

the Lake Huron beaches. 



Tonight...PV max moving into the Upper Midwest will enhance synoptic 

forcing again...bringing another shot at heavy rain and storms to 

the area...as surface low pressure crosses the area...with cooler 

weather swinging in on the backside of this for Friday night. Things 

should warm back up again Saturday as return flow takes aim again at 

the Upper Midwest...bringing a chance for additional showers and 

thunderstorms to the region later Saturday into Saturday 

night...though unclear attm if this will reach us. Better chance of 

showers and thunderstorms for us will be later Sunday into Monday as 

a stronger shortwave trough digs into the Upper Midwest, leaning a 

somewhat nebulous SW-NE oriented boundary into the region going into 

Monday...supporting a continued threat for showers and storms into 

Monday. Troughing then looks to settle into the region...suggesting 

potential for a notable cooldown from Sunday (if convective debris 

does not keep us cooler Sunday), with signals for cooler weather to 

linger into at least the first few days of July. 



Primary Forecast Concerns through Tonight: 



Heavy rainfall through tonight...Think the best chance for rain 

today will remain across the Tip of the Mitt/EUP, perhaps into the M-

32 corridor, where there should be better fgen forcing to work 

with...though do have some concerns the break in deeper moisture and 

better forcing could limit the amount of rainfall we end up with 

today...if not shut things down almost entirely....though think 

drizzle is still a possibility. There are some better signals for 

low-level convergence across NW Lower into central Lower (either the 

boundary itself or some kind of leftover mesoscale boundary), which 

could lead to a rainfall maximum there...where there is a better 

shot a rainfall taking on a more convective look. Tonight...better 

synoptic forcing looks to shift northward, which should result in 

the rainfall swath shifting northward as well...putting the threat 

more on the UP again as deeper moisture creeps back northeastward. 



Storm potential through tonight...Think the storm threat for today 

will depend on how much clearing we get today. Areas that remain 

socked under the clouds should not move much at all...(perhaps 

struggling into the 60s for some?)...but if some part of the CWA 

(most likely NW Lower across to the Saginaw Bay region) breaks into 

some clearing, temperatures will be much warmer (upper 70s to lower 

80s possible)...which could lead to a better shot at 

destabilization. On the flipside, though...this could also lead to 

mixing down of drier air aloft...so a bit of a catch-22...but could 

lead to some gusty winds, perhaps. Appears flow should end up benign 

for a bit across part of central Lower beneath the general area of 

lower pressure this afternoon, which could leave us open to any 

development occurring along lingering mesoscale boundaries. Expect 

the better shot at thunder will be overnight as better forcing moves 

back in again...



A lot of questions surrounding the forecast for tonight as well, 

though...depending on how strong and where the surface response to 

the incoming PV max is. Think there will be some northward motion of 

warm/unstable air overnight...though strength of this is in 

question. A more aggressive solution would lead to a rather 

significant increase in instability/convective instability for NW 

Lower in particular during the overnight hours. Combined with 

potential for a little better shear in this scenario...do have some 

concerns we could be looking at some stronger storms tonight into 

Friday morning until the surface low exits stage right.



&&



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 404 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Lingering storms Friday... As mentioned above...think there will be 

lingering storms Friday morning, perhaps into mid-day/afternoon, 

pending how quickly the system moves on its way and moisture gets 

swept out. If more aggressive solution mentioned above pans 

out...could be looking for some stronger storms across the eastern 

half of the area for at least the first part of the day...but think 

we will need to see how today pans out before running too far ahead 

with this. 



Additional storm chances through the weekend...Best chance for 

showers/storms will be later Sunday into Monday as the next, more 

noteworthy perturbation moves in...with potential for a warmup 

Sunday as southwesterly flow strengthens again. Still have concerns 

for upstream activity to ride thickness gradient toward Michigan 

Saturday night into early Sunday...but not impossible that the 

activity may end up remaining to our west...will have to see. If it 

does come to fruition, it could end up cooler than the current 

forecast.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Showers have largely diminished across the Northwoods with 

cloudy skies expected to persist through the rest of today with 

a continued mix of VFR to IFR conditions. Clouds will generally 

increase again late tonight ahead of a developing area of 

showers/ storms expected ~04Z through early Friday. Ceilings and

visibility look to lower to MVFR to IFR in heavier showers/ 

storms during that time. East winds will decrease through the 

night and shift southwest Friday morning with occasional gusts 

10-15 kts-- with the exception of areas near the tip of the Mitt

and north where occasional gusts 20-25 knots are possible 

through tonight (PLN and CIU). Some low-level wind shear may 

develop overnight into early Friday as stronger winds aloft move

into the region.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Beach Hazards Statement until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ017-

     018-024-030-036.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for LHZ345>347.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for LHZ348-349.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for LMZ341-342.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...FEF

LONG TERM...FEF

AVIATION...NSC

