FXUS63 KAPX 262330

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

730 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Showers and storms tonight into Friday. A few strong storms and 

heavy rainfall will be possible.



- Temperatures warm through the weekend.



- Additional shower/storm chances late Sunday into early next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 312 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Pattern Synopsis:



Short-lived ridging will slide east of the Great Lakes tonight as a 

relatively weak shortwave punches overhead. This feature will 

provide sufficient support aloft for a surface cyclone ~1010mb to 

trek across the region tonight and Friday. A warm front gradually 

working north downstate will struggle to make it past the CWA border 

this afternoon, eventually surging north across the area later 

tonight into Friday as the aforementioned system tracks through.



Forecast Details:



An isolated strong storm will be possible along and south of M-55 

later this afternoon/evening with the primary hazards being damaging 

winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Otherwise, much more 

widespread showers and storms will work across the area later 

tonight through Friday morning. Mostly likely timing for storms will 

be from midnight to 10 AM Friday, beginning and ending from west to 

east across northern Michigan. A few strong storms can't be ruled 

out overnight with marginal elevated instability and shear in place, 

but severe storms are not currently expected overnight into Friday 

morning. The primary concern with showers and storms overnight will 

be the potential for locally heavy rainfall. PWAT values around 1.6" 

to 1.8" approach climatological daily max values, allowing for very 

efficient rainfall with activity tonight. Rainfall amounts of 1-2"+ 

will be possible by Friday morning across the eastern U.P. and Tip 

of the Mitt where most persistent showers and storms are 

anticipated, with lesser amounts around 0.5-1" for areas further 

south. While overnight activity should move east of the area by 

noon, a few additional storms may pop up across northeast lower 

during the afternoon. Otherwise, rain-free weather is expected 

across northern Michigan through the remainder of the day. 

Temperatures in the 70s and 80s are in store, with those near 

Saginaw Bay potentially warming into the upper 80s during the 

afternoon.



&&



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 312 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Pattern Synopsis:



Weak zonal flow looks to set up for the first half of the weekend, 

contributing to a nebulous surface pattern across the the region. 

Troughing will encroach on the Great Lakes heading into Monday, 

providing forcing aloft to generate surface pressure falls along a 

diffuse cold front that looks to gradually work across the region 

during the first half of next week as the parent cyclone treks to 

our north. Behind this, high pressure looks to build into much of 

the Midwest through the remainder of the period.



Forecast Details:



Pleasant weather is in store for the Northwoods to kick off the 

weekend with rain-free weather expected and highs in the 70s and low 

80s under partly to mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will continue 

to warm on Sunday as highs look to climb well into the 80s -- and 

even approach 90 across interior areas. Chances for showers and 

storms returns to the area late Sunday as the aforementioned front 

works into the region. Given ample instability and at least some 

deep-layer shear to work with, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled 

out. Rain chances will continue at times through the first half of 

the week with the middle of the week currently expected to be dry as 

high pressure builds in.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 727 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Continued mixture of VFR to IFR conditions through this evening.

Clouds will generally increase late tonight into early Friday

morning as a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms move 

southwest to northeast across the area...with the greatest 

coverage of these showers expected from 08z through 14z. 

Ceilings and visibility look to lower to MVFR to IFR in heavier 

showers/ storms during that time. East winds will decrease 

through the night and shift southwest Friday morning with 

occasional gusts 10-15 kts-- with the exception of areas near 

the tip of the Mitt and north where occasional gusts 20-25 knots

are possible through tonight (PLN and CIU). Gradual improvement

expected at all taf locations later Friday morning through the 

afternoon.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Beach Hazards Statement until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ017-

     018-024-030-036.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for LHZ345>347.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for LHZ348-349.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for LMZ341-342.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...DJC

LONG TERM...DJC

AVIATION...MSB

