FXUS63 KDLH 261759

AFDDLH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Duluth MN

1259 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Additional rain mainly in northwest Wisconsin today. Localized

  flooding is possible with 1-2" of rain, mainly around Price 

  County.



- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late Friday night

  through Sunday evening.



- Hot and humid weather is expected this weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



A nice break from the rain is happening this morning. Cloudy

skies persist in northwest Wisconsin and into east-central

Minnesota with some areas of fog. There are patches of clear

skies further north. 



Rain Today and Tonight:



Another round of rain is expected today as an upper-level trough

passes through and deepens a low pressure system over Wisconsin

through tonight. There are pretty consistent signals that the

heaviest rainfall amounts over our region will be in northwest

Wisconsin, particularly over and in the vicinity of Price

county. Ensemble amounts vary a little bit, but generally hover

in the 1-2" range with some higher amounts to 3" possible

locally. Flooding chances are on the low end given the nice

break from rain we had from the first round. Similar to the

first round, this will be largely a steady rain, allowing enough

time in most places for efficient-enough runoff. Still,

persistent areas of rain could lead to some localized flooding

(~10-20% chance). All-in-all, it should be another rainy day

with largely minimal impacts. 



On the Minnesota side, showers are possible, but are not

expected to last all day, nor amount to appreciable rainfall

amounts (maybe up to a quarter inch at best). Temperatures

should be warmer (70s) in northern Minnesota with some filtered

sunshine possible.



A nice break in the action with some afternoon sunshine is in

the forecast for Friday with brief high pressure, upper-level

ridging, and flow becoming southerly and starting a warming

trend that's expected into the weekend.



Hot/Humid this weekend with strong to severe thunderstorms

possible:



The forecast is still pretty well on track for some strong to

severe thunderstorms to develop this weekend with southerly flow

pumping in plenty of warm and moist air. An initial short wave

and a strengthening low-level jet across the Dakotas Friday

evening/night may prompt an MCS to develop, and if it does, it

may move its way east into our region by late Friday night into

early Saturday morning. Some severe storms (containing low-end

severe wind/hail) will be possible (~5% chance). It looks like

these will largely fall apart as they move into our region

during the morning.



As we go into Saturday afternoon, instability will be on the

increase (MUCAPE rising to ~2-3 kJ/kg into late Saturday

afternoon/night) with ~30-40 kt of 0-6 km shear. The question

will be how soon a cap can bust for storms to develop given the

potential for morning convection, which may keep things stable

perhaps well into the afternoon. The best synoptic forcing may

be displaced over the Dakotas/Minnesota border with a weak

occluded front may be. But with all that said, if the cap can be

busted, soundings initially look favorable for all hazards;

large hail and damaging winds being the main threats, but with a

tornado or two not out of the question. As is often the case,

this could start with some discrete convection, then become a

bit more organized into Saturday evening/night, but there's

still a lot of unknowns about how everything will come together.



On Sunday, a cold front passing through will probably trigger

another round of thunderstorms, possibly strong to severe, with

northwest Wisconsin being the most likely place to be affected.

With the front passing through, this looks like it would be

mostly a hail/wind situation than anything else, but it's really

too soon to be very precise about the nitty-gritty details.



With the storm talk out of the way, the southerly flow is still

expected to bring hot and humid temperatures to the Northland

both Saturday and Sunday. At this point, it's looking slightly

less favorable that widespread Heat Advisories will be needed,

with some of that uncertainty owing to aforementioned storm

potential, which could cool things off a bit. Still, heat

indices approaching or hitting 90 degrees with highs in the 80s

and dew points in the 60s to low 70s will lead to some

unpleasant conditions for those sensitive to or generally 

disliking hot weather.



Early next week:



We had previously been advertising mainly quiet weather, but at

least on Monday, there is potential for a trough to pass through

with west to northwest flow. This could lead to some

wraparound-style showers and perhaps storms (most likely non-

severe). Tuesday may be quieter, but then perhaps a cold front

going into Wednesday to keep things interesting. In general,

temperatures are looking to be around to a bit above average

early to mid-week.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Aviation conditions will continue to deteriorate to MVFR/IFR 

ceilings at BRD/HYR/DLH/HIB as an upper level trough passes 

overhead. Occasional breaks in the clouds to VFR conditions

possible. Rain is moving in currently, and will affect all 

terminals, though lowest confidence is at INL as the system 

could pass to its south. For now have left rain mention out of 

TAF. East wind 10-15G20-25KT through 4-6Z, becoming NE at 5KT or

less thereafter. Rain ends at terminals around the same time. 

DLH/HYR still showing 30-50% chance of fog with visibilities 

less than 1 mile overnight. Tomorrow, skies will be starting to 

clear from N to S toward the end of the TAF period, with wind at

or around 5KT from the NE.







&&



.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...

Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Expect east-northeast winds to steadily increase this morning

and settle to gusts in the 20-25 kt range late this morning

through early this evening. Wave heights up to 4 ft are expected

as well. Small Craft Advisories have been issued from Taconite

Harbor into the Twin Ports and along the South Shore. There may

be some places that fall just short of Small Craft Advisory

conditions (perhaps with winds topping out around 20 kt and

waves just below 4 ft), but most places should see the 25 kt

wind gusts and waves to around 4 ft at times. Expect some rain

this afternoon and evening as well. There is a 20-40% chance for

some areas of dense fog later tonight into early Friday

morning along the South Shore into the Twin Ports. Winds

gradually become light on Friday from the northeast, becoming

variable Friday night.



For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area

Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.



&&



.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for 

     MNZ037.

WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for 

     WIZ001.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for 

     LSZ142>148-150.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...JDS

AVIATION...LR

MARINE...JDS

