FXUS63 KDLH 262045

AFDDLH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Duluth MN

345 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- An area of rain and a few thunderstorms will lift 

  northeastward across the Northland this afternoon and tonight.

  Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are forecast 

  over northwest Wisconsin with lower totals farther west.



- There is a 10 to 20 percent chance of flash flooding over 

  portions of Sawyer, Price, and Iron counties tonight.



- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late Friday night

  through Sunday evening.



- Warm and humid weather is expected this weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Tonight:



A shortwave trough axis stretched from southwest Manitoba to 

eastern Nebraska this afternoon. A nearly stationary boundary 

has begun to move northward in response to strengthening 

southerly winds over eastern Iowa and deepening low pressure 

over northwest Iowa. An area of rain and embedded thunderstorms 

was found over the northern two-thirds of Minnesota and west- 

central Wisconsin.



Expect the rain to spread northeastward with time tonight. 

Elevated instability will spread northward into northwest 

Wisconsin this evening and a few thunderstorms are likely over 

that area tonight. Severe weather is not anticipated. Much of 

northwest Wisconsin received rainfall yesterday and soils have 

less capactity to absorb more rain today. The potential for 

thunderstorms causing locally enhanced rain rates may lead to 

localized flash flooding. There is a 10 to 20 percent chance of 

flash flooding over portions of Sawyer, Price, and Iron 

counties. Rain amounts tonight of up to one-half inch are 

forecast over portions of the Arrowhead into central Minnesota 

while another 1 to 2 inches is forecast over northwest 

Wisconsin.



Friday:



High pressure develops for Friday with increasing sunshine 

expected. Temperatures will climb into the upper 60s to upper 

70s. Temps will be coolest Ashland, Iron, and Price counties 

where rain-laden soils and loitering cloud cover will limit 

heating response.



Strong northeast winds over western Lake Superior will continue

the risk of rip currents for the beaches of Duluth and 

Superior.



Friday night and Saturday morning:



Southerly flow will bring plenty of warm and moist air into the

Northland for the weekend. An initial shortwave trough and a 

strengthening low-level jet across the Dakotas Friday 

evening/night may prompt an MCS to develop in North Dakota or 

the southern portions of Saskatchewan and Manitoba. If the MCS 

does develop, the low-level jet may sustain the complex as it 

propagates eastward overnight. Storms may move into the 

Northland from the west during the early morning hours of 

Saturday, between 3 and 7 AM. There remains a "Marginal" (1 out 

of 5) risk of severe storms early Saturday morning. The main 

threat will be damaging wind gusts, although a few hailstones of

dime to penny size are also possible. The storms will continue 

to propagate eastward across the Northland late Saturday morning

through early afternoon. 



Previous discussion for Saturday afternoon through early next 

week below...



As we go into Saturday afternoon, instability will be on the 

increase (MUCAPE rising to ~2-3 kJ/kg into late Saturday 

afternoon/night) with ~30-40 kt of 0-6 km shear. The question 

will be how soon a cap can bust for storms to develop given the 

potential for morning convection, which may keep things stable 

perhaps well into the afternoon. The best synoptic forcing may 

be displaced over the Dakotas/Minnesota border with a weak 

occluded front may be. But with all that said, if the cap can be

busted, soundings initially look favorable for all hazards; 

large hail and damaging winds being the main threats, but with a

tornado or two not out of the question. As is often the case, 

this could start with some discrete convection, then become a 

bit more organized into Saturday evening/night, but there's 

still a lot of unknowns about how everything will come together.



On Sunday, a cold front passing through will probably trigger 

another round of thunderstorms, possibly strong to severe, with 

northwest Wisconsin being the most likely place to be affected. 

With the front passing through, this looks like it would be 

mostly a hail/wind situation than anything else, but it's really

too soon to be very precise about the nitty-gritty details.



With the storm talk out of the way, the southerly flow is still

expected to bring hot and humid temperatures to the Northland 

both Saturday and Sunday. At this point, it's looking slightly 

less favorable that widespread Heat Advisories will be needed, 

with some of that uncertainty owing to aforementioned storm 

potential, which could cool things off a bit. Still, heat 

indices approaching or hitting 90 degrees with highs in the 80s 

and dew points in the 60s to low 70s will lead to some 

unpleasant conditions for those sensitive to or generally 

disliking hot weather.



Early next week:



We had previously been advertising mainly quiet weather, but at

least on Monday, there is potential for a trough to pass 

through with west to northwest flow. This could lead to some 

wraparound-style showers and perhaps storms (most likely non- 

severe). Tuesday may be quieter, but then perhaps a cold front 

going into Wednesday to keep things interesting. In general, 

temperatures are looking to be around to a bit above average 

early to mid-week.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Aviation conditions will continue to deteriorate to MVFR/IFR 

ceilings at BRD/HYR/DLH/HIB as an upper level trough passes 

overhead. Occasional breaks in the clouds to VFR conditions 

possible. Rain is moving in currently, and will affect all 

terminals, though lowest confidence is at INL as the system 

could pass to its south. For now have left rain mention out of 

TAF. East wind 10-15G20-25KT through 4-6Z, becoming NE at 5KT or

less thereafter. Rain ends at terminals around the same time. 

DLH/HYR still showing 30-50% chance of fog with visibilities 

less than 1 mile overnight. Tomorrow, skies will be starting to 

clear from N to S toward the end of the TAF period, with wind at

or around 5KT from the NE.



&&



.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...

Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Strong and persistent northeast winds will continue today and 

Friday and will gradually weaken Friday afternoon. Dangerous 

wind and waves is forecast overnight through Friday morning and 

Small Craft Advisories were extended. A few thunderstorms are 

possible tonight from Port Wing to Saxon Harbor. Cloud-to-water 

lightning is the main threat. There is another chance of 

thunderstorms Saturday morning and Saturday evening into the 

overnight. A few storms may be strong to severe. 



For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area 

Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.



&&



.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for 

     MNZ037.

WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for 

     WIZ001.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for LSZ142>148.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT Friday for LSZ150.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Huyck/JDS

AVIATION...LR

MARINE...Huyck

