FXUS63 KGID 262032

AFDGID



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Hastings NE

332 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Flooding from yesterdays thunderstorm activity continues to

  impact parts of south central Nebraska. While additional

  rainfall is not anticipated across this area tonight, it may

  take several days for some of the most impacted areas to

  completely improve. Please see the latest flood statements for

  additional information.



- Despite a very small chance of a thunderstorm this

  afternoon/evening southeast of the tri-cities and a very small

  chance northwest of the tri-cities Friday night, most of the

  area will remain dry over the next 48 hours.



- After a hot and muggy Saturday (Heat Index values will likely

  top 100) with only light southerly breezes, thunderstorm

  chances return to the entire area Saturday night, and a few of

  these storms could be strong to marginally severe across our

  Nebraska counties.



- The best chance for thunderstorms over the period will come

  with a frontal passage Sunday afternoon/evening. After a hot

  weekend, this front should cool temperatures back close to

  climo next week (mid to upper 80s) with periodic small chances

  for thunderstorms each day.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



A few thunderstorms have developed east of the local area this

afternoon along the boundary that moved across central Nebraska

overnight. While thunderstorm development is possible on the

back edge of this boundary for the next few hours, models keep 

the bulk of this activity well east of the local area, and no 

additional rainfall is expected this afternoon or tonight across

the flood affected areas. 



Clearing skies, falling temperatures and light southeasterly

winds are then anticipated overnight, which combined with 

elevated dew points and saturated soils will likely lead to fog

development across much of the local area by daybreak Friday, 

and upped the fog wording in the current forecast and HWO. While

a dense fog advisory may eventually be needed, the 18Z HRRR 

keeps dense fog coverage limited to only pockets of the local 

area, so held off on any sort of headline for the time being. 

That said, the evening shift will continue to monitor trends in

observations and model data, and would not be surprised to wake

up to a foggy start across the area Friday morning.



As we transition into the afternoon hours Friday, the next upper

level disturbance should move into western Nebraska, sparking

some high plains convection. While not a sure thing that this

convection will hold together by the time it reaches central 

Nebraska, maintained some small pops for a few hours Friday 

night for areas northwest of the Tri-cities, with most areas 

expected to remain dry. A better upper level disturbance could 

then bring additional thunderstorm activity to most of south 

central Nebraska Saturday evening/night, with even a slight risk

for severe weather being advertised across Valley and Greeley 

counties. The best chance for thunderstorms will then come 

Sunday night as a frontal boundary again reaches the local area 

and becomes the focus for thunderstorm activity Sunday 

afternoon/evening. 



Ahead of the front Sunday night, temperatures will be hot

tomorrow afternoon through Sunday afternoon, with the peak

intensity expected Saturday. While this heat will not be as

intense as the last heat wave, it may be more stifling, as 

winds will be much lighter and dewpoints likely higher as well. 

Thankfully, the front Sunday night should help "cool" 

temperatures back closer to climo for the remainder of the 

forecast period, with high temperatures mostly in the mid to 

upper 80s much of next week. In addition to the cooler 

temperatures, periodic mainly small chances for thunderstorms 

can be expected each day in a fairly messy west to northwesterly

upper level pattern. 



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



For KGRI/KEAR Airports:



Temporary MVFR CIGS will continue at KGRI for about one more

hour, before VFR conditions become dominant at both terminals

for the rest of the afternoon. Winds today will be mainly

northwesterly at less than 15 KTS...rapidly diminishing by 

early evening as an area of surface high pressure slides into 

the Missouri River Valley. Return flow around this area of high 

pressure system will induce light southeasterly winds late in 

the night, which combined with clear skies, saturated soils and 

elevated dewpoints, will likely result in fog...potentially 

dense towards daybreak. Due to some uncertainty, kept worst 

conditions in a tempo group for the time being, but prevailing 

LIFR VSBYS/CIGS may eventually be needed. This fog should not 

stick around long into the daytime hours Friday, with VFR

CIGS/VSBYS again becoming predominant by 27/16Z at the latest.



&&



.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...None.

KS...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Rossi

AVIATION...Thies

