FXUS63 KICT 261735

AFDICT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wichita KS

1235 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...Updated Aviation Discussion...



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Storm chances increase for this afternoon and evening, with

  strong storms and heavy rain possible. 



- Hit-or-miss storm chances for Friday and Saturday, especially

  across eastern KS. 



- Storm chances ramp back up for Sunday afternoon and especially

  Sunday night as a front moves into the area.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 311 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Currently have a weak upper impulse that is nearly stationary

over Southern CA with some additional energy sliding across

western/central Nebraska. At the surface, cold front, aided by

outflow, stretches from eastern Nebraska into northwest KS. 



Scattered storms remain from north central KS into

central/eastern Nebraska where 850mb moisture transport is

maximized ahead of the upper wave. We should see some iso-sct

showers/storms continue this morning generally west of I-135

were 850-700mb moisture transport lingers. Storms are expected

to become more numerous this afternoon along and south of the

front. By 21z, front is expected to extend from southeast

Nebraska into west-central KS. We may see an uptick in

convection around or just after sunset as 850mb moisture

advection ramps back up, especially across south central KS.

Still looking for ML CAPE values to be in the 2,000-3,000J/KG

range with minimal capping. Effective shear is still expected 

to be fairly weak with around 15-20kt forecast. So the main 

severe threat will be downburst winds and high rainfall rates.



By Fri morning, weak upper energy will be moving into the Mid

Mississippi Valley but will leave a very moist and unstable

airmass behind. Some isolated storms will be possible Fri

afternoon and evening, mainly across southeast KS where cooler

mid level temps will be located. The same setup is forecast for

Sat, with eastern KS having the better chances to see isolated

afternoon/evening storms. There is good model agreement in

a shortwave tracking across southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba

for Sat night into Sun and will push a cold front south across

the Central Plains and into the forecast area for Sun afternoon

and especially Sun night. At the same time, some monsoonal

energy is also expected to lift out of NM/TX Panhandle and will

slide across KS. Some of this activity will likely linger into

Mon morning, especially across southeast KS. 



Beyond Mon, confidence in storm chances decreases. Upper ridging

will strengthen over the Central and Southern Rockies with

northwest flow from the Northern Rockies through the Great

Lakes. Will maintain some small storm chances for Tue-Wed as mid

level temps remain unseasonably cool and we maintain plenty of

low level moisture/instability.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Spotty showers and storms possible this afternoon.



Widespread scattered to broken VFR cigs continue to overspread

most locations along and west of the Flint Hills early this

afternoon. A plume of very rich moisture from the Eastern

Pacific, along with an approaching weak cold front sagging into

central and south-central Kansas, will set the stage for widely

scattered showers and storms across much of the area this

afternoon into tonight. The main concerns will be gusty winds

and very heavy rainfall. Sites impacted by stronger storms could

see wind gusts up to 40 knots, and over 1 in/hr rainfall rates

leading to a degradation in visibilities. 



The axis of moisture driving these showers and storms will

gradually move eastward into tonight, and some activity may last

until Friday morning across southeast Kansas. Winds are

generally out of the south and southwest with gusts this

afternoon between 20 and 25 knots.



&&



.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...RBL

AVIATION...JC

