FXUS63 KICT 262011

AFDICT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wichita KS

311 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Storm chances continue this evening, with strong storms and 

  heavy rain possible. 



- Hit-or-miss storm chances for Friday and Saturday, especially

  across eastern KS. 



- Storm chances ramp back up for Sunday afternoon and especially

  Sunday night as a front moves into the area.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



A low pressure system currently located over central Nebraska is

dragging a weak boundary southward across central Kansas. This 

boundary will be the focal point of our convection this 

afternoon and evening as it moves eastward throughout the day

and into the evening hours. While shear will remain weak across

the forecast area, the instability will reach between 2500-3000

J/kg in places. This, combined with the forcing from the 

boundary, should be enough to produce a few thunderstorms 

across eastern Kansas. The thermodynamic profile supports a few 

strong wind gusts, however the lack of shear should limit the 

hail threat. The slower moving nature of these storms, along 

with 2 inch PWATs, would also support locally heavy rain leading

to some localized flooding concerns. 



Then for Friday into this weekend, moisture and instability will 

remain in place across the eastern half of Kansas though we will 

lack in any real forcing across the area. Some weak mid-level 

impulses will move across the region allowing minor convection to 

develop in the weakly capped environment. Widespread severe weather 

and significant rainfall is not anticipated with this activity. Then 

on Sunday night into Monday, a shortwave will move into the northern 

portion of the U.S. sending an associated weak frontal boundary 

across the Central Plains. This will lead to slightly better rain 

chances on Sunday night into Monday morning. 



Beyond Monday, high pressure will build in behind the front leading 

to generally lower rain chances. For the middle part of the week, we 

could see isolated rain/storm chances as low level moisture remains 

abundant and we'll maintain some marginal instability. In the wake 

of the frontal boundary, we will also see temperatures dip a few 

degrees below normal for this time of year with afternoon highs 

reaching into the middle to upper 80s and overnight lows falling 

into the middle to upper 60s.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Spotty showers and storms possible this afternoon.



Widespread scattered to broken VFR cigs continue to overspread

most locations along and west of the Flint Hills early this

afternoon. A plume of very rich moisture from the Eastern

Pacific, along with an approaching weak cold front sagging into

central and south-central Kansas, will set the stage for widely

scattered showers and storms across much of the area this

afternoon into tonight. The main concerns will be gusty winds

and very heavy rainfall. Sites impacted by stronger storms could

see wind gusts up to 40 knots, and over 1 in/hr rainfall rates

leading to a degradation in visibilities. 



The axis of moisture driving these showers and storms will

gradually move eastward into tonight, and some activity may last

until Friday morning across southeast Kansas. Winds are

generally out of the south and southwest with gusts this

afternoon between 20 and 25 knots.



&&



.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...AMD

AVIATION...JC

