FXUS63 KILX 261731

AFDILX



Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Hot and humid weather will persist into the upcoming weekend.

  The highest heat index readings of 100 to 105 degrees will occur

  today...but will remain in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees 

  through Sunday. 



- Rain chances will be minimal today (20% areal coverage), but 

  will increase markedly by Friday into Saturday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...Heat Advisory...



Typical summertime heat and humidity will persist today. High 

temperatures will top out in the lower to middle 90s and dewpoints

will hover in the lower to middle 70s...resulting in peak afternoon

heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees across the board. Have 

therefore added Knox, Stark, and Marshall counties back into the 

Heat Advisory that is in effect through early this evening. An

approaching cold front will bring increased cloud cover and rain

chances for Friday: however, heat index values will still climb to

around 100 degrees or perhaps a few degrees higher along/east of

I-57. Future shifts may need to extend the Heat Advisory into

Friday for the eastern KILX CWA if current trends continue. After

that, very warm and muggy conditions will persist through the

weekend...with heat index values topping out in the upper 90s to

around 100 degrees for both Saturday and Sunday.





...Daily Thunderstorm Chances...



Isolated convection will develop in the hot/humid airmass this

afternoon: however, with no significant focusing mechanism 

present, areal coverage will remain minimal (around 20%).



As low pressure tracks from Iowa this evening to Lake Huron by 

Friday evening, it will give the persistent frontal boundary that 

has been stalled to the N/NW of the region a push southward. A

broken line of thunderstorms will develop along the slowly

advancing front across eastern Iowa and northwestern Illinois 

late this afternoon and evening. These storms will gradually shift

E/SE, but will be in a weakening state as they push into the 

Illinois River Valley toward midnight. Model solutions vary 

concerning how far the convection will make it into the KILX 

CWA....with some solutions such as the HRRR and WRF-ARW suggesting

it will barely get to the Illinois River. Meanwhile other more 

bullish models like the FV3 show storms perhaps getting as far 

east as the I-55 corridor overnight. Given the moderately to 

strongly unstable pre-frontal environment, have trended more 

toward the FV3 with this forecast package. As a result, have

spread 30-50 PoPs into the Illinois River Valley and 20 PoPs as

far east as I-55 overnight. 



While the boundary will be weakening with time, it will still 

provide enough focus within the moisture-rich environment to 

warrant 50-60 PoPs along/east of the I-55 corridor by Friday 

afternoon. As the front slowly makes its way southeastward, the 

50-60 PoPs will focus along/southeast of I-55 on Saturday.



Once the Friday/Saturday front drops into the Ohio River Valley

and washes out, the synoptic focus for convective development will

be lost on Sunday. Current forecast features 40-50 PoPs mainly

across the west, but think these are overdone and will likely 

need to be reduced with subsequent forecast packages.



As has been advertised for the past few days, a vigorous short-wave

trough traversing the zonal flow pattern across southern Canada

will dig into the Great Lakes/New England early next week...displacing

the upper ridge over the SE CONUS westward into the Rockies. 

Given deepening northwesterly flow aloft, a significant cold front

will makes its way through the region on Monday. An increased 

chance for thunderstorms will accompany the front...followed by a 

return to cooler/drier weather by next Tuesday and Wednesday. 



Barnes



&&



.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Isolated convection to occur again this afternoon and early

evening across central IL in very unstable tropical air mass.  

Carried VCSH/VCTS to address this chance through sunset and SPI

recently had VCTS. Models have trended weaker and slower with a 

line of convection tracking southeast toward the IL river/PIA from

08-12Z and carried VCSH for this chance as well. More convection 

to develop during midday Friday though best coverage to be after 

18Z/1 pm Friday. SW winds around 10 kts this afternoon to veer SSW

5-10 kts after sunset and SW winds increase to 10-15 kts with 

gusts near 20 kts after 15Z/10 am Friday. 



07



&&



.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ027>031-036>038-

040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.



&&



$$

