FXUS63 KIND 261856

AFDIND



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Indianapolis IN

256 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- *HEAT ADVISORY* continues through late day Friday



- Heat indices up to 100-107 degrees and low temperatures near or 

  above 74 degrees through Friday



- Scattered daily afternoon showers/t-storms, isolated strong to 

  severe wind gusts are possible as well as localized flooding



&&



.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...

Issued at 254 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Showers and thunderstorms have developed today, largely from Indy 

eastward. Cumulus developed initially across the entire area fairly 

evenly...but over time only the eastern half grew into storms. The 

western half, however, has diminished in coverage and height. 

Low-level water vapor reveals a pocket of dry air located over the

western portion of the CWA. What likely happened is that cumulus 

fired up upon reaching convective temps...but as the boundary 

layer deepened, some of that dry air mixed down allowing 

convective processes to diminish over our western counties.



Convection is therefore likely to be confined mainly to the eastern 

portions of the area. Some of the storms have strengthened nicely, 

with a few weak downburst signatures shown on the KIND radar. 

Storm activity may continue to pose a downburst threat as it 

travels east into Ohio. Steep low-level lapse rates and decent 

storm top flow support this idea. Shower and storm activity should

rapidly diminish after sunset as diurnal heating is lost.



Showers and thunderstorms return on Friday as a weak cold front 

approaches the area. Model soundings show greater moisture in the 

column compared to today, with similarly weak flow aloft. Lapse 

rates are steep in the low-levels but modest to weak aloft. CAPE 

profiles are tall with ELs over 12km and values around 2000-3000 

J/Kg. Despite weak flow, frontal forcing combined with the 

buoyant atmosphere should allow for convection by the afternoon. 

Severe weather is not expected, but an isolated downburst capable 

of strong/marginally severe wind gusts cannot be ruled out.



Temperatures...heat advisory continues into Friday with yet another 

hot and humid day expected. Lows in the mid 70s should provide 

little nocturnal relief and exacerbate heat-related health

effects.



&&



.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...

Issued at 254 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



A Rex Block over the SE CONUS has kept a strong ridge over the Ohio 

Valley, resulting in an extended heat wave for central Indiana. The 

Rex Block creating the extended heat wave over the Ohio Valley will 

begin to break down tomorrow through the weekend, mostly related to 

the arrival of a weak and slow moving low level shortwave over the 

Great Lakes region. As the shortwave nears late Friday into Saturday 

an increase in lift will likely allow for continued scattered to 

numerous coverage of showers and thunderstorms Friday night into 

Saturday.  Given the presence of the shortwave, there is likely to 

be some near surface high pressure building in from the NW on 

Saturday, with a push of slightly drier air along with its arrival. 

This will slowly decrease precipitation chances throughout the day 

Saturday from NW to SE. By Sunday, this dry air mass should 

encompass all of central Indiana, significantly reducing PoPs. With 

greater cloud coverage, and the arrival of a slightly drier air mass 

on Saturday, it is likely that temperatures will be more limited, 

with highs slightly lower; in the upper 80s. 



Even with the shortwave present, upper level forcing will be very 

weak, with marginal shear through the lowest 6km. This should limit 

storm organization, with any severe weather expected to be very 

isolated. 



The ridge will continue to break down early next weak, with more 

seasonal temperatures expected Monday through Wednesday (mid 80s). 

Low to mid level moisture is expected to stick around for early next 

week as well, leading to daily thunderstorm chances once convective 

temperatures are reached. Generally, synoptic dynamics are expected 

to remain weak, leading to the continued expectation of unorganized 

thunderstorms, but model uncertainty is high on any low level 

features for a more mesoscale specific threat.



&&



.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...

Issued at 131 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Impacts:



- Chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms



Discussion:  



VFR conditions expected through the TAF period, except during 

showers or thunderstorms. 



Showers or thunderstorms are expected to be isolated in nature, and 

the likelihood of any particular terminal experiencing one is 

low...so they will not be explicitly shown in the TAFs for now.



Winds will retain a southwesterly component today around 10kt with 

perhaps a gust to 20kt. Winds die down and become a bit more 

southerly overnight, before picking up and returning to 

southwesterly on Friday.



Showers and thunderstorms are once again possible on Friday but 

mainly near and after the end of the TAF period.





&&



.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for INZ021-028>031-035>049-

051>057-060>065-067>072.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Eckhoff

LONG TERM...Updike

AVIATION...Eckhoff

