FXUS63 KJKL 261815

AFDJKL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Jackson KY

215 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Hot and humid conditions will continue into the weekend, with

  temperatures gradually moderating each day. Heat indices peaking

  in the 95 to 105 degree range today and Friday will lower into

  the 90s for Saturday.



- Diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances gradually increase

  through the end of the week and weekend before peaking early 

  next week.



- A potential cold front passage toward the middle of next week

  may bring at least temporary relief from the heat and humidity. 



&&



.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)

Issued at 203 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025



Upper-level ridging will continue to slowly get nudged east of the

Ohio River Valley through Friday as a weak upper low remains 

mostly stationary over the Southeast U.S. By Friday night,

impinging westerlies will push a disturbance east across the Lower

Ohio River Valley. 



The Heat Advisory has been extended another 24 hours until 8 PM

EDT Friday. This is based on a largely persistence forecast

whereby temperatures are trending gradually downward by a degree

or two each day, while dew points remain in the 70s. While most

locations will technically not hit the heat index criteria of 105

degrees, the cumulative effect of many consecutive days of hot 

and humid conditions combined with record warm overnight lows is 

an important consideration in the extension/continuation. 



Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue into early this

evening before weakening and then dissipating with the loss of

daytime heating this evening. Low-level and mid-level water vapor

satellite imagery continues to depict a dry air mass aloft, with

an inverted-v low-level signature in model soundings below the 

LCL. Thus, pulse storms will continue to develop and push outflows

outward which may/will trigger additional convection. A few of the

stronger storms could produce damaging downbursts and outflow

winds as a result. 



A repeat of these conditions is expected Friday as the atmospheric

environment will not change. However, by Friday evening the middle

and upper levels will begin to moisten as a shortwave begins to

approach from the west. 





.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)

Issued at 203 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025



Eastern Kentucky will reside within a weak flow regime aloft

between mid-latitude westerlies to the north and a weak mid-level

low over the Southeast U.S., with a large yet low-amplitude upper

trough impinging upon the Bluegrass State the early to middle 

part of next week. An upper-level trough may push a weak cold

front through the area around Tuesday night or Wednesday of next

week, possibly bringing some relief from the hot and humid

conditions. 



Unsettled weather is expected each day, with scattered to numerous

showers and thunderstorms this weekend helping to moderate

temperatures. This activity then continues into next week, with a

weak cold front possibly crossing the region Tuesday night or

early Wednesday bringing a slight cooldown in temperatures along

with a potential reduction or possibly even elimination of

precipitation chances (PoPs) Wednesday into Thursday. 



With several days of daily shower and thunderstorm chances,

high temperatures will be mostly in the mid to upper 80s, while

lows will slowly moderate as well with more and more valley

locations likely to drop into the 60s. After the potential cold

front passage toward the middle of next week, overnight lows may

drop farther into the 60s for all locations, with some of the

typically cooler valleys possibly flirting with upper 50s for

overnight lows by Thursday morning. 



&&



.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)

ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025



Utilized TEMPO groups to account for afternoon convection, with

outflows from thunderstorm activity generating gusty and erratic

winds even a good distance from the storms. This activity should

wane with the loss of daytime heating, with fog developing

overnight especially at valley terminals where rain occurs. With 

the exception of primarily daytime convection and nighttime/early 

morning fog, VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals. 



&&



.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-

068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.





&&



$$



SHORT TERM...CMC

LONG TERM...CMC

AVIATION...CMC

